纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英受中国驱动全球燃煤发电卷土重来

Global capacity to generate power from coal, one of the most polluting fossil fuels, grew in 2023, driven by a wave of new plants coming online in China that coincided with a slowing pace of retirements of older plants in the United States and Europe.

煤是污染最严重的化石燃料之一，受中国新建一批燃煤发电厂，同时美国和欧洲老燃煤电厂退役步伐放缓的推动，全球的燃煤发电能力在2023年有所增长。

The findings came in an annual report by Global Energy Monitor, a nonprofit organization that tracks energy projects around the world.

这些发现来自全球能源监测发布的年度报告，这是一家跟踪世界各地能源项目的非营利组织。

Coal’s heavy greenhouse gas footprint has prompted calls for it to be rapidly phased out as a source of energy, and all of the world’s countries have broadly agreed to reduce their dependence on coal. But industrializing economies, particularly in Asian countries with inexpensive access to domestic coal reserves, have set longer horizons for their transitions.

燃煤产生大量温室气体，因此存在迅速淘汰用煤作为能源的呼声，世界各国已基本同意减少对煤炭的依赖。但正在实现工业化的国家，尤其是拥有廉价煤炭储备的亚洲国家，为能源结构的转型设定了更长的期限。

China alone accounted for two-thirds of the world’s newly operating coal plants last year. Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Japan, Bangladesh, Pakistan and South Korea also inaugurated new plants, which typically operate for two to three decades.

去年，仅中国就占全球新投产燃煤电厂的三分之二。印度尼西亚、印度、越南、日本、孟加拉国、巴基斯坦和韩国也新建了燃煤电厂，这些发电厂通常将运行20到30年。

One silver lining is that new coal plants are generally less polluting than older ones, but scientists, climate researchers and activists agree that moving away from not just coal, but all fossil fuels, has to happen as soon as possible to avoid the most dire consequences of global warming.

虽然好消息是，这些新燃煤电厂的污染通常比旧燃煤电厂的小，但科学家、气候研究者和活动人士认为，为了避免全球变暖的最严重后果，不仅需要尽快放弃使用煤炭，还需要放弃使用所有的化石燃料。

“Right now, coal’s future is a two-part story: What do we do about currently operating coal plants, and then, how do we make sure the last coal plant that will ever exist is one that’s already built,” said Flora Champenois, one of the authors of the report. “If it weren’t for the China boom, that’s pretty much where we’d already be.”

“此时此刻，煤炭的未来涉及两个方面：一是我们如何处理目前仍在运行的燃煤电厂，二是我们如何确保已经建成的燃煤电厂将是最后一座，”年度报告的作者之一弗洛拉·尚普努瓦说。“若不是中国的大量建设，我们本来差不多已经做到了第二点。”

China, and, to a lesser extent, India, are still planning to build coal plants many years from now. In 2023, new coal plant construction hit an eight-year high in China. If China were to build all the others it has proposed, it would add the equivalent of one-third of its current operating fleet.

中国仍计划在未来许多年里继续建设燃煤电厂，印度也一样，只是规模小些。中国2023年的新燃煤电厂建设创下了八年来的最高纪录。如果中国把计划中的燃煤电厂都建成的话，它新增燃煤装机容量将相当于现有能力的三分之一。

Today, China accounts for around 60 percent of the world’s coal use, followed by India and then the United States. India relies most intensively on coal, with 80 percent of its electricity generation derived from it.

中国如今的煤炭使用约占全球用量的60%，其次是印度，再次是美国。煤炭在印度能源结构中占比最高，其80%的发电量来自煤炭。

The flip side of the growth in coal is a slowdown in plant retirements in Western economies. Fewer were decommissioned in 2023 than in any year for the past decade. Phasing out all operating coal plants by 2040 would require closing an average of about two coal plants per week.

伴随燃煤电厂增长的是，西方国家放慢了退役燃煤电厂的速度。2023年退役的燃煤产能比过去十年中的任何一年都少。 要在2040年之前逐步淘汰所有目前运行的燃煤电厂，将需要平均每周关闭约两座厂。

Analysts said the slowdown in 2023 may have been temporary, as the United States, Britain and European Union countries have set various targets to close all their existing coal plants well before 2040. The International Energy Agency’s modeling suggests that, to align with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels, rich countries should phase out coal by 2030 and it should be eliminated everywhere else by 2040.

分析人士称，2023年的燃煤电厂退役速度放慢也许是个暂时现象，因为美国、英国和欧盟国家已为在2040年到来前提前多年关闭所有现有燃煤电厂制定了各种不同目标。国际能源署的模型建议，为了将全球变暖的温度限制在比工业化前平均温度高1.5摄氏度的范围内，富裕国家应在2030年前逐步淘汰使用煤炭，其他国家应在2040年前淘汰。

“We had said that 2024 was the year coal would peak,” said Carlos Torres Diaz, a senior vice president at Rystad Energy. “But right now, I would say it’s not clear we’ll hit that. We’re near it, in any case.”

“我们曾说过，煤炭使用将在2024年将达到峰值，”睿咨得能源高级副总裁卡洛斯·托雷斯·迪亚兹说。“但现在我会说，尚不清楚我们能否实现这个目标。不管怎么说，我们已接近目标。”

Western countries relied on coal for well over a century, which is why, in no small part, they account for the majority of historical greenhouse gas emissions.

西方国家依赖煤炭已远不止一个世纪，这在很大程度上解释了它们导致了半数以上历史上温室气体排放总量的原因。

In an attempt to balance financial responsibility for the energy transition, richer countries have pooled tens of billions of dollars in loans to some coal-reliant developing countries like Indonesia, Vietnam and South Africa to help them build out renewable energy so as to transition more quickly away from coal. For now, however, much of that money remains undisbursed as stakeholders iron out disagreements.

为了平衡能源转型的财务责任，富裕国家已集资数百亿美元，将为印度尼西亚、越南和南非等依赖煤炭的发展中国家提供贷款，帮助它们建设可再生能源，以更快地转向远离煤炭的能源结构。但其中大部分资金目前尚未花出去，因为利益相关方仍在解决分歧。

For many developing countries, coal has one major advantage: It’s cheap. It’s price has also proved less volatile than oil and gas, the other major fossil fuels used in electricity production.

对许多发展中国家来说，煤炭价格便宜是主要的有利因素。煤炭价格的波动性也被证明低于石油和天然气，这是另外两种用于电力生产的主要化石燃料。

Bangladesh, for instance, had been building up its gas capacity. But fluctuations in price and availability, stemming largely from shocks related to the war in Ukraine, have prompted a rethink and a reinvestment in coal.

以孟加拉国为例，该国一直在建设本国的天然气发电能力。但由于在很大程度上受与俄乌战争有关的冲击影响，天然气的价格和供应出现了大波动，促使该国重新考虑并且重新投资煤炭。

The same dynamic is, to some extent, true in China, analysts said. The pandemic’s toll on China’s economy has made its utilities more likely to opt for the cheapest fuel: coal.

分析人士称，中国也在某种程度上存在同样的情况。新冠疫情给中国经济带来困难，这使得公用事业公司更有可能选择最便宜的燃料：煤炭。

China also leads the world in renewable energy expansion. That growth far outpaces coal’s growth, and in some cases is tied to it. China’s government says that much of the coal it uses or plans to use would serve as a fallback for times when renewable production dips and the grid requires more energy.

中国也在扩大可再生能源使用上处于世界领先地位，国内可再生能源的增长远远超过煤炭的增长，而且在某些情况下两者相互关联。中国政府说，目前使用或计划使用的大部分煤炭是为可再生能源发电量下降、电网需要更多补充时作备份用的。

“While the data isn’t totally clear from China, it is possible that while there may be more coal plants there could also be lower utilization of them,” Mr. Diaz said. “But when it comes to coal, given that China is such an overwhelming part, whatever happens there really defines the global trend.”

“虽然来自中国的数据并不完全清楚，但一种可能是，尽管中国建了更多的燃煤电厂，但它们的使用率却降低了，”迪亚兹说。“但就煤炭而言，由于中国用量的世界占比如此巨大，无论那里发生什么都会真正决定全球趋势。”