纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英耶伦再访华敦促中国解决绿色能源出口过剩问题

After three hours of meetings on Friday, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and Vice Premier He Lifeng of China sat down for a working dinner at the White Swan Hotel in Guangzhou, China. They planned to follow that with a scenic boat cruise along the city’s Pearl River.

周五，经过三个小时的会谈，美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦和中国副总理何立峰在广州白天鹅宾馆共进了工作晚餐，还计划随后乘船游览珠江。

The evening activity was intended to give the pair, the top economic officials from the United States and China, an opportunity to go beyond talking points and build trust.

晚间活动的目的是让美中两国的两位高级经济官员有机会超越谈话要点，建立信任。

But the first of four days of discussions about their economies was about more than pleasantries. Following months of work to reopen communication with China, Ms. Yellen lodged a direct complaint: Cheap Chinese exports of green energy technology are threatening the electric vehicle and solar sectors that the United States has been trying to develop, and the Biden administration is prepared to protect them.

但是，在为期四天的经济讨论中，第一天的讨论远不止客套话。经过数月重启对话的努力，耶伦直接抱怨：廉价的中国绿色能源技术出口正威胁到美国一直在努力发展的电动汽车和太阳能行业，而拜登政府准备保护这些行业。

The message represented a challenging test of economic diplomacy for Ms. Yellen. She wants China to dial back its industrial policy just as the United States is ramping up its own with trillions of dollars of subsidies for domestic clean energy industries. The new push against China’s exports threatens to inflame trade tensions between the world’s largest economies just as they have been working to stabilize relations.

这对耶伦的经济外交来说是一个有挑战性的考验。她希望在美国加大对国内清洁能源产业数万亿美元补贴力度的同时，中国能够收回其产业政策。就在美中这两个世界最大的经济体努力稳定关系之际，针对中国出口的新举措有可能激化双方之间的贸易紧张局势。

Ahead of her meeting with Mr. He, Ms. Yellen previewed her arguments before a group of American business executives operating in China, explaining her view that China cannot jump-start its growth with an export boom and advising that it should focus on supporting greater consumption within its own borders. She also warned that a surge of Chinese green technology products being sold below the cost of production will warp global supply chains by depressing prices and forcing firms worldwide to shutter.

在与何立峰会面之前，耶伦在一群在华经营的美国企业高管面前预先阐述了她的观点，她解释说，她的观点是中国不能通过出口繁荣来启动经济增长，并建议中国应该把重点放在支持扩大国内消费上。她还警告说，大量中国绿色科技产品以低于生产成本的价格出售，将压低价格、迫使全球各地的企业倒闭，从而扭曲全球供应链。

“Overcapacity isn’t a new problem, but it has intensified, and we’re seeing emerging risks in new sectors,” Ms. Yellen said on Friday.

耶伦周五表示：“产能过剩不是一个新问题，但它已经加剧，我们看到新的行业出现了风险。”

She emphasized that the United States was not adopting an “anti-China” policy and said that, as an economist, it was her view that China could benefit if it stopped giving subsidies to firms that would fail without government support.

她强调，美国并没有采取“反华”政策，并表示，作为一名经济学家，她认为，如果中国停止向那些没有政府支持就会倒闭的公司提供补贴，可能会从中受益。

Despite the criticism of China’s economic strategy, Ms. Yellen received a warm welcome from her Chinese counterparts on her second trip there as treasury secretary. Ms. Yellen is popular in China because of her record as an academic economist. Last summer she caused a stir on social media when she ate a dish made with psychedelic mushrooms at a restaurant in Beijing. On Thursday, a state-run media outlet praised her proficiency with chopsticks while she dined at a local Cantonese restaurant.

尽管对中国的经济战略提出了批评，耶伦作为财长的第二次访华还是受到了中国对等官员的热烈欢迎。耶伦在中国很受欢迎，因为她是一位学院派经济学家。去年夏天，她在北京一家餐馆吃了一道用致幻蘑菇做的菜，在社交媒体上引起了轰动。周四，一家官方媒体称赞她在当地一家粤菜餐厅用餐时能够熟练使用筷子。

But if Ms. Yellen’s message about overcapacity is followed by tariffs or other U.S. trade restrictions, relations could quickly sour.

但如果耶伦发出产能过剩的信息后美国征收关税或采取其他贸易限制，中美关系可能很快就会恶化。

During a separate meeting on Friday with the governor of Guangdong Province, Wang Weizhong, Ms. Yellen recalled that Guangzhou was historically a hub for Chinese trade and a place that was at the center of 1970s-era market-oriented reforms that opened China’s economy and supercharged its growth. Then she raised her concerns about China’s current path.

在周五与广东省省长王伟中举行的另一场会议上，耶伦回忆说，广州在历史上是中国贸易的中心，也是20世纪70年代市场化改革的中心，那次改革开放了中国经济，推动了经济增长。然后，她提出了对中国当前道路的担忧。

“Building a healthy economic relationship requires a level playing field for American workers and firms, as well as open and direct communication on areas where we disagree,” Ms. Yellen said. “This includes the issue of China’s industrial overcapacity, which the United States and other countries are concerned can cause global spillovers.”

“建立健康的经济关系需要为美国工人和企业提供一个公平的竞争环境，也需要在我们存在分歧的领域进行公开和直接的沟通，”耶伦说。“这包括中国工业产能过剩的问题，美国和其他国家担心这可能会导致全球溢出效应。”

Treasury officials say that they fear that elevated Chinese production targets are causing its firms to produce far more electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels than global markets can absorb, driving prices lower and disrupting production around the world. They fear that these spillovers will hurt businesses that are planning investments in the United States with tax credits and subsidies that were created through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, a law that is pumping more than $2 trillion into clean energy infrastructure.

财政部官员说，他们担心中国生产目标的提高会导致中国企业生产的电动汽车、电池和太阳能电池板数量远远超过全球市场的吸收能力，从而推动价格下跌，扰乱全球生产。他们担心，这些溢出效应会损害那些计划利用《2022年通货膨胀削减法案》规定的税收抵免和补贴在美国投资的企业。该法案将向清洁能源基础设施投入超过2万亿美元的资金。

As Ms. Yellen noted, the issue of Chinese overcapacity has been around for decades. A report last month published by the Rhodium Group, a research firm, recalled that a Chinese stimulus program initiated after the 2008 financial crisis focusing on infrastructure and property construction led to a global glut of steel and aluminum products after demand for real estate weakened.

正如耶伦所指出的，中国产能过剩的问题已经存在了几十年。研究公司荣鼎咨询上月发布的报告称，2008年金融危机后，中国启动了一项刺激计划，重点关注基础设施和房地产建设，在房地产需求减弱后，导致全球钢铁和铝产品供过于求。

Following the pandemic slowdown, China has focused on factory production to bolster its sputtering economy. Its exports, measured in dollars, rose 7 percent in January and February from the same period a year ago. Because of an emphasis on green technology, Chinese firms are producing far more silicon wafers and lithium-ion batteries than they can sell, according to Rhodium, as overall business inventories are hitting record highs.

在疫情放缓之后，中国一直把重点放在工厂生产上，以提振疲弱的经济。1月和2月，中国以美元计算的出口同比增长了7%。荣鼎咨询称，由于对绿色科技的重视，中国企业的硅晶圆和锂离子电池产量远远超过了销量，整体商业库存创下历史新高。

While the CHIPS and Science Act that passed in the United States in 2022 provided $39 billion in manufacturing incentives for semiconductors, the city of Guangzhou alone established a $29 billion fund for semiconductor and renewable energy initiatives last year.

美国于2022年通过的《芯片与科学法案》为半导体制造业提供了390亿美元的激励措施，然而仅广州市去年就为半导体和可再生能源项目设立了290亿美元的基金。

China has acknowledged in the past that overproduction can be harmful, however it is not clear that America’s concerns will spur a course correction at a time when the United States is pursuing its own subsidies.

中国过去曾经承认，生产过剩可能有害，但目前尚不清楚，在美国寻求自己的补贴政策之际，美国的担忧是否会促使中国调整路线。

Ahead of Ms. Yellen’s visit, China has accused the United States of protectionism. Last week, China filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization contending that the Biden administration’s electric vehicle subsidy policies are discriminatory. This week, the state-run China Daily newspaper called the United States the “biggest threat to economic globalization” because of opposition to a proposed merger between the Japanese company Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel.

在耶伦访华之前，中国指责美国实行保护主义。上周，中国向世界贸易组织提出申诉，称拜登政府的电动汽车补贴政策具有歧视性。本周，中国官方报纸《中国日报》称美国是“经济全球化的最大威胁”，原因是美国反对日本新日铁和美国钢铁公司拟议中的合并。

“It’s a very tough sell when we’re doing much the same thing,” said Scott Lincicome, a trade expert at the free-market oriented Cato Institute. “Regardless of whether you think the United States should be pursuing these subsidies, the fact is that the rhetorical and political effect is inevitably going to be undermined when your argument is, do as I say, not as I do.”

“如果我们在做同样的事情，那就很难让人信服，”主张自由市场的卡托研究所的贸易专家斯科特·林西科姆说。“不管你是否认为美国应该实施这些补贴，事实是，如果你的论点是，‘照我说的做，而不是照我做的做’，那么语言和政治效果将会不可避免地受到削弱。”

Mr. Lincicome also suggested that the Biden administration is working against its own climate goals by discouraging China from producing the renewable energy products that the United States wants the world to be utilizing.

林西科姆还表示，拜登政府阻止中国生产美国希望全世界使用的可再生能源产品，是在违背自己的气候目标。

Mary Gallagher, a political science professor at the University of Michigan, argues that China’s embrace of excess industrial capacity is a feature of its central government’s economic plan rather than a “bug” because it has allowed the country to lead the world in green energy technology innovation while local governments grapple with the fiscal fallout. Because of China’s dominance of these industries, and of electric vehicles in particular, she said that the United States now has higher priorities than upholding traditional free trade principles.

密歇根大学政治学教授玛丽·加拉格尔认为，中国乐于看到工业产能过剩，这是中央政府经济计划的一个特点，而不是一个“缺陷”，因为这让中国在地方政府努力应对财政后果的同时，在绿色能源技术创新方面走在了世界前沿。她说，由于中国在这些行业，尤其是电动汽车行业的主导地位，美国现在有比维护传统自由贸易原则更重要的事情要做。

“With the whole system moving to electrification, dependency on a country like China for those products is dangerous,” Ms. Gallagher, a Chinese politics expert, said. “If the United States is not producing itself, it will lose out.”

“随着整个系统走向电气化，依赖像中国这样的国家生产这些产品是危险的，”中国政治问题专家加拉格尔说。“如果美国不能自己生产，就会走向失败。”

Biden administration officials make a similar argument, pointing out that its green energy investments are different than what China is doing. They say American subsidies are meant to ensure that domestic supply chains are diversified and resilient, not to dominate global markets.

拜登政府官员也提出了类似的观点，他们指出，美国的绿色能源投资与中国的投资不同。他们说，美国的补贴是为了确保国内供应链的多样化和弹性，而不是为了主导全球市场。

The United States is considering refashioning some of the tariffs that the Trump administration imposed on more than $300 billion of Chinese imports so that they target China’s green energy products. During a stop in Alaska on her flight to China, Ms. Yellen said that she would not rule out ways to protect the industries that the United States has been subsidizing. Treasury officials noted that Europe is already investigating China’s electric vehicle subsidies and that Mexico and Brazil are also pursuing anti-dumping measures in response to China’s export wave.

美国正在考虑重新调整特朗普政府对价值3000多亿美元的中国进口商品征收的部分关税，使其针对中国的绿色能源产品。耶伦在飞往中国的途中经停阿拉斯加时表示，她不会排除保护美国一直在补贴的行业的办法。美国财政部官员指出，欧洲已经在调查中国的电动汽车补贴，墨西哥和巴西也在寻求采取反倾销措施，应对中国的出口浪潮。

The heightened focus from the United States on Chinese exports coincides with the approaching U.S. presidential election in November and concerns that Beijing’s policies could threaten American jobs and union workers.

美国对中国出口的高度关注恰逢美国11月总统大选临近，人们担心北京的政策可能威胁到美国的就业和工会工人。

Scott Paul, president of the Alliance for American Manufacturing, said that the $20 billion U.S. trade deficit with China is too high and that China is increasingly routing its products through Mexico to dodge American duties and tariffs.

美国制造业联盟主席斯科特·保罗表示，美国对华200亿美元的贸易逆差太高，而且中国越来越多地通过墨西哥出口产品，以逃避美国的关税。

“It’s important for Beijing to receive the message that there’s no more business as usual from the United States,” Mr. Paul said.

“对北京来说，重要的是要接受这样一个信息——美国不会再像往常一样做生意了，”保罗说。

As she greeted Mr. He on Friday afternoon, Ms. Yellen delivered her concerns about China’s export push while striking a diplomatic tone.

周五下午，耶伦在问候何立峰时，用外交口吻表达了她对中国推动出口的担忧。

“A healthy economic relationship must provide a level playing field for firms and workers in both countries,” she said.

“健康的经济关系必须为两国的企业和工人提供公平的竞争环境，”她说。

Mr. He, speaking through a translator, said that he hoped to make progress on critical economic issues, adding, “We also need to properly respond to key concerns from the other side.”

何立峰通过翻译表示，他希望在关键的经济问题上取得进展，并说，“我们也需要充分回应对方的主要关切。”