纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英马英九访问中国大陆或将与习近平会面

As tensions fester between China and Taiwan, one elder politician from the island democracy is getting an effusive welcome on the mainland: Ma Ying-jeou, a former president.

就在中国大陆和台湾之间的紧张局势恶化之际，一位来自这个民主岛屿、年纪较长的政治人物在大陆受到热情的欢迎，他就是前总统马英九。

Mr. Ma’s 11-day trip across China, which was set to begin on Monday, comes at a fraught time. Beijing and Taipei have been in dispute over two Chinese fishermen who died while trying to flee a Taiwanese coast guard vessel in February, and China has sent its own coast guard ships close to a Taiwanese-controlled island near where the men died.

马英九将于周一开始为期11天的中国之行，这次访问正值一个令人担忧的时刻。2月，两名中国渔民试图逃离一艘台湾海岸警卫队船只时丧生，北京和台北因此发生争执。中国已派遣自己的海岸警卫队船只靠近出事地点附近的一个台湾控制的岛屿。

Taiwanese officials expect China to intensify its military intimidation once the island’s next president, Lai Ching-te, takes office on May 20. His Democratic Progressive Party rejects Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is part of China, and Chinese officials particularly dislike Mr. Lai, often citing his 2017 description of himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan’s independence.”

台湾官员预计，一旦下一任总统赖清德于5月20日就职，中国大陆将加强军事威胁。赖清德的民进党拒绝接受北京关于台湾是中国一部分的说法，中国官员尤其不喜欢赖清德，经常引用他在2017年称自己是“务实台独工作者”这番话。

On the other hand, China’s warm treatment of Mr. Ma, 73, Taiwan’s president from 2008 to 2016, seems a way to emphasize that Beijing will keep an open door for politicians who favor closer ties and accept its conditions for talks.

另一方面，中国对2008年至2016年任台湾总统、现年73岁的马英九热情相待，似乎是在强调北京将为那些赞成加强两岸关系并接受其会谈条件的政治人士敞开大门。

“Beijing’s policy toward Taiwan will definitely be using more of both a gentle touch but also a hard fist,” Chang Wu-yue, a professor at the Graduate Institute of China Studies of Tamkang University in Taiwan, said in an interview about Mr. Ma’s visit.

“北京的对台政策肯定会软硬兼施，”台湾淡江大学中国大陆研究所教授教授张五岳在采访中谈到马英九的访问时说。

Officials from Mr. Ma’s Nationalist Party have hinted that later in his trip, he may meet with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping. That would echo groundbreaking talks that the two held in 2015. China has frozen high-level official contacts since Taiwan’s current president, Tsai Ing-wen, took office in 2016. She and the president-elect, Mr. Lai, belong to the same party, usually known by its initials, D.P.P.

马英九所在的国民党的官员暗示，他可能会在行程的晚些时候与中国最高领导人习近平会面。这将与2015年两人举行的突破性会谈相呼应。自台湾现任总统蔡英文于2016年就职以来，中国一直冻结高层官方接触。蔡英文和候任总统赖清德同属于民进党，人们通常用其缩写DPP相称。

Mr. Lai has said that there will be no drastic change in Taiwan’s status, and that he wants talks with China. But his party rejects Beijing’s conditions for official talks, especially a formula under which each side accepts there is “one China,” even if they differ on what that means. The Democratic Progressives call that a rhetorical trap to advance China’s claim over Taiwan.

赖清德表示，台湾的地位不会发生重大变化，他希望与中国进行谈判。但他的政党拒绝接受北京提出的正式会谈条件，尤其是双方都承认存在“一个中国”的方案，即使双方对“一个中国”的含义存在分歧。民进党称其为一个修辞陷阱，旨在推进中国对台湾的主权主张。

Nationalist Party officials argue that they help Taiwan by talking to senior Chinese officials.

国民党官员提出，他们是在通过与中国大陆高级官员对话来帮助台湾。

“What if an accident happens? There’s no dialogue, no communication channel, between the D.P.P. government and the Communist government in China,” Sean Lien, a vice chairman of the Nationalist Party, said in an interview before Mr. Ma’s trip. “The fact that he’s visiting China in early April, and probably will meet with Xi Jinping — I actually think that will help reduce the mounting tensions between Taiwan and mainland China.”

“如果发生意外怎么办？民进党政府和中共政府没有对话，没有沟通渠道，”国民党副主席连胜文在马英九出访前接受采访时说。“他于四月初访问中国，而且可能和习近平会面——我认为这有助于缓解台湾和中国大陆之间日益加剧的紧张关系。”

For Mr. Xi, a meeting with Mr. Ma may be a way of trying to show Chinese people that Taiwan is not slipping irretrievably beyond hope of unification.

对习近平来说，与马英九会面可能是一种方式，可以向中国人民表明，台湾并没有无可挽回地失去统一的希望。

“For Beijing, it’s in Xi’s interest to show that time is on mainland China’s side, and maybe he can spin a meeting with Ma — if it happens — to convey that narrative to the domestic audience,” said Bonnie S. Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “That might ease some of the pressure that is rising internally.”

“对北京来说，表明时间站在中国一边，这符合习近平的利益，也许他可以利用与马英九的会面——如果能实现的话——向国内受众传达这样的说法，”美国德国马歇尔基金会印太项目常务董事葛来仪(Bonnie S. Glaser)说。“这可能会在一定程度上缓解国内不断上升的压力。”

In part, Mr. Ma’s trip is another move in the contest between his Nationalist Party and Mr. Lai’s incoming administration.

在某种程度上，马英九此行是他所在的国民党与即将上任的赖清德政府之间较量的又一举措。

Mr. Lai won 40 percent of the presidential vote, prevailing in a three-way race. But the Nationalists won the most seats in the legislative election. Both the Nationalists and Chinese officials have said that those results showed that Mr. Lai does not represent mainstream Taiwanese opinion, a message Beijing is likely to amplify during Mr. Ma’s visit.

赖清德赢得了40%的总统选票，在三人竞选中获胜。但是国民党在立法院选举中赢得了最多的席位。国民党和中国官员都表示，这些结果表明，赖清德并不代表台湾的主流意见，北京可能会在马英九的访问期间放大这一信息。

But Mr. Ma’s visit to China has risks for his party. He represents a wing of the Nationalists committed to Taiwan’s reconciliation with Beijing as part of one Chinese nation, an idea that other sectors of his party, and Taiwanese voters, are wary of. In the final days of Taiwan’s presidential race, the Nationalist candidate, Hou Yu-ih, distanced himself from Mr. Ma over comments that the former president made about Taiwan’s military vulnerabilities.

但马英九访问中国对他的政党来说有风险。他代表国民党的一个派别，致力于台湾与北京的和解，将台湾视为中华民族的一部分，而国民党的其他派别和台湾选民对这一想法持谨慎态度。在台湾总统竞选的最后几天，国民党候选人侯友宜因这位前总统有关台湾军事弱点的言论，与马英九保持了距离。

“No matter how much you defend yourself, you can never fight a war with the mainland; you can never win,” Mr. Ma told Deutsche Welle. Unification with China could be acceptable to Taiwan, he added, if achieved peacefully and democratically.

“无论台湾如何自卫都永远无法抵御与大陆的战争，也永远无法获胜，”马英九在接受德国之声采访时说。他还说，如果以和平和民主的方式实现与中国的统一，台湾是可以接受的。

According to a poll of Taiwanese people by the Election Study Center of National Chengchi University in Taipei, about 1 percent support unification “as soon as possible.” Nearly 90 percent favor some version of Taiwan’s current ambiguous status quo: self-ruling, separate from China, but short of full formal independence.

根据台北的台湾国立政治大学选举研究中心对台湾民众进行的一项民意调查，大约1%的人支持“尽快”统一。近90%的人支持台湾目前模棱两可的现状：自治，与中国分离，但不是完全的正式独立。

The D.P.P. has accused Mr. Ma of selling out Taiwanese interests by going to China.

民进党指责马英九前往中国是出卖台湾利益。

“The Chinese Communists are trying to use Ma Ying-jeou’s visit to frame the terms for political discussion on both sides of the Taiwan Strait,” Wang Ting-yu, a Democratic Progressive lawmaker, said in an interview. Mr. Ma does not represent mainstream views within his own party, Mr. Wang said: “He has lost the mandate of public opinion.”

“中共试图利用马英九的访问，为台湾海峡两岸的政治讨论设定框架，”民进党立法委员王定宇在接受采访时说。王定宇说，马英九不能代表他自己党内的主流观点，“他已经失去了公众舆论的授权。”

As president, Mr. Ma expanded economic ties with China, including tourism. But his plans for a more ambitious trade pact ran aground in 2014 after protesters occupied Taiwan’s legislature, arguing that the agreement would undermine Taiwan’s economic autonomy.

任职总统期间，马英九扩大了与中国的经济联系，包括旅游业。但2014年，抗议者占领了台湾立法院，称他与中国雄心勃勃的贸易协议计划将破坏台湾的经济自治权，之后，他制定该协定的计划搁浅。

Mr. Ma first visited China last year, though he did not meet with Mr. Xi. This time, he will lead a group of Taiwanese students to Guangdong Province in southern China and to Shaanxi Province in the northwest, there to attend a ceremony honoring the Yellow Emperor, the mythic forefather of Han people. Finally, they will visit Beijing, where the meeting with Mr. Xi may take place.

马英九于去年首次访问中国，但没有与习近平会面。这一次，他将带领一批台湾学生前往中国南部的广东省和西北部的陕西省，在那里参加纪念黄帝的仪式，黄帝是汉族的神话始祖。最后，他们将访问北京，并可能在那里与习近平会面。

Taiwan’s Nationalist Party issued a statement defending Mr. Ma’s trip and expressing “hope that this visit will contribute to cross-strait peace and stability.” It also noted that Mr. Ma no longer held any senior posts in the party.

台湾国民党发表声明，为马英九此行辩护，并表示“希望这一次访问能有助于两岸的和平与稳定”。声明还指出，马英九已不再担任党内任何高级职务。

“They are setting up some protection,” said Dennis Lu-Chung Weng, an associate professor at Sam Houston State University in Texas who studies Taiwanese politics. “If anything goes wrong in Beijing, or Ma Ying-jeou mentions something unacceptable to the Taiwanese people, the party will indicate that they are not with Ma Ying-jeou on that.”

“他们在建立一些保护措施，”得克萨斯州萨姆休斯敦州立大学研究台湾政治的副教授翁履中说。“如果北京出了什么问题，或者马英九提到了台湾人民无法接受的事情，该党将表示在这一点上不支持马英九。”