纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英金门撞船事件余波中国海警加强巡逻对赖清德施压

A small island controlled by Taiwan a few miles off China’s coast lived for decades in constant readiness for war. At one point in 1958, troops there hunkered in bunkers as Communist forces rained hundreds of thousands of shells on them.

这个台湾控制的小岛距离中国海岸仅几公里远，几十年来它一直处于备战状态。1958年，共产党军队向该岛发射了成千上万枚炮弹，岛上的部队一度躲藏在掩体中。

These days, the island, Kinmen, has become a hub of Taiwan’s commerce with China and its abandoned, weatherworn fortifications are tourist sites. Eight ferries a day take Taiwanese businesspeople and visitors from Kinmen to mainland China.

如今，金门岛已成为台湾与中国大陆通商的枢纽，这里饱经风霜的废弃防御工事也成为了旅游景点。每天有八个班次的渡轮将台湾商人和游客从金门送往中国大陆。

But the sea around Kinmen has again turned tense after two Chinese men onboard a speedboat died in the area last month while trying to flee a Taiwanese Coast Guard vessel.

但上个月，一艘快艇上的两名中国男子在试图逃离台湾海岸警卫队船只时在该海域丧生，金门附近海域的局势再次变得紧张起来。

The Chinese Coast Guard has responded by patrolling close to the island, and briefly boarded a Taiwanese tourist boat last month. In mid-March, four boats came as close as 3.5 miles off Kinmen’s shore, entering what Taiwan calls a prohibited zone.

作为回应，中国海岸警卫队开始在金门岛附近巡逻，并在上个月短暂登上了一艘台湾游船。3月中旬，四艘中国海警船靠近金门海岸5.6公里处，进入了台湾所称的禁区。

China has said the patrols are to protect Chinese fishing boats. But the patrols also fit more broadly with China’s strategy of squeezing Taiwan, an island-democracy that Beijing claims as its territory, while stopping short of setting off a major confrontation that would draw in the United States.

中国称巡逻是为了保护中国渔船。但从更广泛的意义上讲，巡逻也符合中国的战略，即挤压北京声称是其领土的民主岛屿台湾，同时避免引发会招致美国介入的重大对抗。

Beijing has been stepping up such “gray zone” tactics to warn Taiwan’s president-elect, Lai Ching-te — a politician deeply disliked by Chinese leaders — as he prepares to take office in two months, experts, politicians and officials in Taiwan said in interviews and briefings.

台湾的专家、政治人士和官员在采访和简报中表示，在台湾当选总统赖清德准备于两个月后就职之际，北京一直在加强这种“灰色地带”策略，以警告这位深受中国领导人厌恶的政治人物。

“With Lai Ching-te’s inauguration on May 20, mainland China is definitely going to steadily, consistently raise the pressure,” said Chen Yu-jen, a member of Taiwan’s legislature from the opposition Nationalist Party who represents an electorate on Kinmen, in an interview with The New York Times.

台湾反对党国民党籍金门立委陈玉珍在接受《纽约时报》采访时说：“我相信中国大陆这边对赖清德在520就任，当然会逐渐地、一直加压台北政府，这是毫无疑问的。”

Beijing asserts that Taiwan must accept unification, preferably peacefully, but under armed force if Chinese leaders decide that is necessary. Mr. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party rejects China’s claim to Taiwan, and argues that the island-democracy will chart its own course — self-ruling in practice, even if most governments do not recognize Taiwan as a separate state.

北京主张台湾必须接受统一，最好是和平方式，但如果中国领导人认为有必要，也会使用武力。赖清德领导的民进党拒绝接受中国对台湾的主权要求，并且认为这个民主岛屿将自行决定自己的未来——事实上的自治，即使大多数国家目前并不承认台湾是一个独立国家。

Some pushback from China over the deaths of the two Chinese men on Feb. 14 near Kinmen was foreseeable, especially given that Taiwan is always kindling for nationalist ire. Chinese officials are now waiting for a report from Taiwanese investigators into the incident; tensions could climb if Beijing disputes their conclusions.

对于两名中国男子2月14日在金门附近死亡一事，中国的一些反弹是可以预见的，尤其是考虑到台湾问题一直是民族主义的燃点。中国官员目前正在等待台方对该事件的调查报告；如果北京对他们的结论提出异议，紧张局势可能会升级。

Taiwanese officials have said that the unlicensed Chinese speedboat entered Taiwanese waters near Kinmen, ignored demands from a Taiwanese Coast Guard vessel to stop, and tried to race away. Taiwanese officials have said the two men who died had drowned. Two Chinese survivors told Chinese media that the Taiwanese vessel collided with them, while the Taiwanese Coast Guard said the two boats “made contact” at times during the chase.

台湾官员称，这艘未经许可的中国快艇进入了金门附近的台湾水域，无视台湾海岸警卫队船只的停船要求，并试图驶离。他们表示两名男子是溺水身亡。另两名中国幸存者告诉中国媒体，台湾船只与他们相撞，而台湾海岸警卫队则称，在追逐的过程中，两艘船有时进行了“接触”。

The Chinese government has made demands on behalf of the dead men’s families, including for an apology and compensation. Chinese officials have complained that the Taiwanese Coast Guard vessel did not take video of the encounter, and accused Taiwan of dragging its feet in its investigation.

中国政府代表死者家属提出了道歉和赔偿等要求。中国官员抱怨台湾海巡署的船只现场未摄像，并指责台湾政府拖延调查。

Incursions of Chinese fishing boats and smugglers around Kinmen have long been a source of friction. Chinese fishing boats are supposed to stay out of Taiwan’s zone around Kinmen and smaller nearby islands, but for years some flouted the restrictions, said Tung Sen-pao, a local councilor on the island.

长期以来，中国渔船和走私者在金门附近的入侵一直是两岸摩擦的源头之一。金门岛地方议员董森堡称，中国渔船理应远离台湾在金门和附近小岛周围的海域，但多年来一些中国渔船一直无视这一限制。

“They came over here to fish with explosives, electric lines, gill nets, a lot of that kind of thing,” he said. Chinese dredgers, he added, also often stole sand, which can be sold to make concrete.

“他们来这边炸鱼、电鱼，用流刺网，这种东西很多，”他说。中国挖泥船还经常来越界抽砂，可以把它们卖掉用来制作混凝土。

More recently, tougher enforcement by the Taiwanese Coast Guard, which has seized and impounded intruding Chinese vessels, helped reduce the violations, Taiwanese officials said.

台湾官员表示，最近，台湾海岸警卫队加强了执法力度，扣押了入侵的中国船只，这有助于减少违规行为。

In less tense times, local representatives on Kinmen and in the Chinese province of Fujian, on the other side of the strait, might have been able to quickly settle disputes such as that of the recent deaths. But mutual distrust between China and Taiwan is running high, and Beijing is especially touchy ahead of Mr. Lai’s inauguration.

在局势不那么紧张的时候，金门和海峡对岸中国福建省的地方代表或许能够迅速解决像最近的死亡事件那样的争端。但中国大陆和台湾之间互不信任的程度很高，北京在赖清德就职前尤其敏感。

Chinese officials have also sought to use the incident for political points and to undermine Taiwan’s boundaries. They have denied that Taiwan has a right to restrict access to waters off Kinmen, despite longstanding arrangements on that point. And Chinese Communist Party officials and news outlets have tied the deaths to Mr. Lai and his Democratic Progressive Party’s resistance to China.

中国官员还试图利用这一事件来达到政治目的，破坏台湾的疆界。他们否认台湾有权限制进入金门附近海域，尽管在这一点上长期以来已达成了安排。中国共产党官员和新闻媒体将死亡事件与赖清德及其领导的民进党抵制中国联系在一起。

The Chinese government’s Taiwan Affairs Office accused Democratic Progressive Party politicians of callousness and of “trying to shirk responsibility,” in a statement justifying the latest Chinese Coast Guard patrols off Kinmen. It warned that China reserved the right to respond further.

中共中央台湾工作办公室在一份声明中指责民进党草菅人命，“不思悔改”，并为中国海岸警卫队最近在金门外海的巡逻行为进行辩解。声明警告，中国保留进一步回应的权利。

The Chinese Coast Guard service is under military control, and its ships can carry cannons and other weapons. Beijing has also been deploying them in territorial disputes with Japan and the Philippines. Chinese media publicized last week that the coast guard had also recently participated in training with naval ships under the Eastern Theater Command — the military area that encompasses Taiwan.

中国海警受军方控制，其船只可携带大炮和其他武器。中国政府还在与日本和菲律宾的领土争端中部署了海警船。中国媒体上周公布，海警最近还参加了东部战区司令部海军舰艇的训练——该战区覆盖台湾。

Lee Wen-chi, a Kinmen fisherman who had returned to shore on a recent day with two buckets of sea bass, said that he and other fisherman kept well away from the Chinese Coast Guard ships, moving on if they spotted one in the distance.

最近的一天，金门渔民李文智（音）带着两桶鲈鱼回到岸上，他说，他和其他渔民会跟中国海警船保持距离，如果远远地发现中国海警船，他们就会赶紧离开。

“If you get too close to them, they’ll think that you’re up to no good,” he said. “I avoid them as much as I can.”

他说：“如果跟他太近的话，他以为我们在做坏事情，我会尽量避免。”

These days, Taiwan stations only a few thousand troops on Kinmen, giving Kinmen little immediate protection if China ever decided to invade. Taiwan’s fisheries agency announced that troops would hold live-fire drills in the waters off Kinmen, next month. Such drills happen every year, but China may regard the latest ones as a provocation.

如今，台湾仅在金门驻扎了几千名士兵，如果中国决定入侵，金门几乎得不到任何直接保护。台湾渔业机构宣布，部队将于下月在金门附近海域举行实弹演习。此类演习每年都会举行，但中国可能会将最近的演习视为挑衅。

Before the Kinmen incident, the Chinese government had already signaled that it would pounce on perceived missteps or provocations by Mr. Lai, who also goes by the name William Lai. Beijing had hoped that he would lose Taiwan’s election in January, ending the Democratic Progressive Party’s eight-year hold on power under the current president, Tsai Ing-wen.

在这起金门事件发生之前，中国政府已经发出信号，表示将打击其所谓赖清德的错误或挑衅行为。北京曾希望他在今年1月的台湾大选中落败，从而结束民进党在现任总统蔡英文领导下长达八年的执政。

China has warned that it could suspend tariff concessions for some products from Taiwan, including auto parts. Two days after Mr. Lai’s victory, China arranged for Nauru — a tiny Pacific island-state that was one of the dozen or so countries that retain formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan — to shift ties to Beijing. Then China unilaterally altered a commercial air flight route over the Taiwan Strait, a step that officials in Taipei said could make flying in the area more risky.

中国警告，可能会暂停对包括汽车零部件在内的一些台湾产品的关税减让。赖清德获胜两天后，瑙鲁在中国的安排下与北京建交，这个太平洋小岛国此前是与台湾保持正式外交关系的十几个国家之一。随后，中国单方面改变了台湾海峡上空的一条商业航线，台北官员称这一举措可能会增加在该地区飞行的风险。

China has also continued to deploy fighter jets and other military planes near Taiwan almost daily. Larger, more menacing military actions are possible, especially after Mr. Lai’s inauguration.

中国还继续在台湾附近几乎每天部署战斗机和其他军用飞机。更大规模、更具威胁性的军事行动是有可能发生的，尤其是在赖清德就职之后。

“They are probing here and there to push the boundaries and create a new normal,” said I-Chung Lai, the president of the Prospect Foundation, a Taiwanese think thank aligned with the Democratic Progressive Party. Any conciliatory messages in Mr. Lai’s inauguration speech were unlikely to shift China’s strategy, he added: “The gray zone operations against Taiwan will become more intense, regardless of what William Lai says.”

“他们到处试探着突破边界，想创造一种新常态，”与民进党结盟的台湾智库远景基金会主席赖怡忠说。他还表示，赖清德就职演说中的任何和解信息都不可能改变中国的战略，“不管赖清德说什么，针对台湾的‘灰色地带’行动只会变本加厉。”

Still, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, may not want to push those actions to the point of setting off a full-blown crisis.

不过，中国领导人习近平可能并不想将这些行动推向引发全面危机的地步。

Beijing has other ways of politically undermining Mr. Lai, and has pointed to his share of votes — 40 percent — to assert that he does not represent Taiwan’s mainstream views. Mr. Xi also has his eye on the United States’ presidential election in November, and probably won’t make any big decisions over Taiwan before then, several experts say. And with China’s economy in such poor shape, Mr. Xi would likely rather avoid a major confrontation that could unnerve investors.

北京还有其他政治手段来削弱赖清德，并已指出他的得票率只有40%，声称他并不代表台湾的主流观点。几位专家认为，习近平还在关注11月的美国总统大选，在此之前可能不会就台湾问题做出任何重大决定。中国的经济状况如此糟糕，习近平很有可能希望避免可能令投资者感到不安的重大对抗。

“President Xi has a lot of problems that he’s dealing with at home, and if you look back to other episodes when China has dealt with a lot of domestic challenges, they typically have sought to calm their external environment,” said Ryan Hass, the director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution.

布鲁金斯学会约翰·桑顿中国中心主任何瑞恩(Ryan Hass)表示：“习主席在国内有很多问题要处理，如果你回顾一下中国应对国内挑战的其他时期，就会发现他们通常会寻求稳定外部环境。”