纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英习近平的新质生产力能解决中国经济困境吗

From the top of the government, China is heavily promoting a plan to fix the country’s stagnant economy and offset the harm from a decades-long housing bubble.

中国政府的最高层正在大力推行一项计划，以解决中国经济停滞不前的问题，并抵消长达数十年的房地产泡沫带来的危害。

The program has a fresh slogan, presented foremost by Xi Jinping, the country’s top leader, as “new, quality productive forces.”

该计划有一个新口号，由国家最高领导人习近平首先提出，即“新质生产力”。

But it has features that are familiar from China’s economic playbook: The idea is to spur innovation and growth through massive investments in manufacturing, particularly in high-tech and clean energy, as well as robust spending on research and development. And there have been few concrete provisions for how the government hopes to persuade Chinese households to reverse a prolonged slowdown in spending.

但它具有中国经济路数的常见特征：通过对制造业的大规模投资，尤其是在高科技和清洁能源领域，以及研发方面的强劲支出，刺激创新和增长。对于政府希望如何说服中国家庭扭转支出长期放缓方面，目前还几乎没有具体的方案。

Premier Li Qiang, the country’s No. 2 official, laid out the plan on Sunday in a speech to chief executives from around the globe, who had gathered in Beijing for the country’s annual China Development Forum. “We will accelerate the development of new, quality productive forces,” he said at the forum’s opening ceremony.

周日，中国二号人物、国务院总理李强向齐聚北京、参加中国年度发展高层论坛的全球首席执行官发表讲话，提出了这一计划。他在论坛开幕式上表示，将会“加快发展新质生产力”。

Started in 2000, the China Development Forum is designed to explain to corporate leaders the economic plan laid out each year by the premier on March 5.

中国发展高层论坛始于2000年，旨在向企业领导人解释总理每年3月5日制定的经济计划。

In previous years, the forum featured a lengthy, closed-door discussion with chief executives where the premier entertained many questions. But the premier’s conversation, usually on the event’s final day, was canceled this year without explanation, prompting some chief executives to skip Monday and schedule their private jets to fly out on Sunday evening.

在往年的论坛上，论坛的最后一天通常是总理与首席执行官们进行长时间的闭门讨论，回答他们提出的各种问题，但这种讨论今年却被取消了，而且没有做出任何解释，这导致一些首席执行官放弃周一的活动，在周日晚上搭乘私人飞机离开。

The China Development Forum also used to include a fairly open discussion of economic policies by Chinese corporate leaders and ministers a day before the opening ceremony, but that, too, did not take place this year.

过去，中国发展高层论坛还会在开幕式前一天由中国企业领导人和部长们就经济政策进行较为公开的讨论，但今年也没有举行。

China has moved toward fewer and more scripted public events involving its top leaders. The annual news conference by the premier at the closing of the legislature in mid-March was also canceled.

中国高层领导人参与的公开活动越来越少，即使露面也越来越照本宣科。总理在3月中旬人大会议闭幕后召开的年度新闻发布会也被取消。

Evan Greenberg, chairman and chief executive of the Chubb Group, a large American insurer, co-hosted the opening of the conference on Sunday. The list of attendees included Tim Cook, the chief executive of Apple, who has been in China the past week trying to reinvigorate iPhone sales, as well as Mike Henry, the chief executive of BHP, the Australian mining giant.

美国大型保险公司安达集团董事长兼首席执行官埃文·格林伯格周日共同主持了会议的开幕式。与会者包括苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克和澳大利亚矿业巨头必和必拓的首席执行官迈克·亨利。库克过去一周一直在中国，试图重振iPhone销售。

In his speech, Mr. Li called for enhanced manufacturing and increased services and consumption. He repeated calls for Chinese households to replace old cars and household appliances, but did not say whether the government would provide money to help them do so.

李强在讲话中呼吁加强制造业，并增加服务和消费。他一再呼吁中国家庭更换旧汽车和家用电器，但没有透露政府是否会提供资金支持。

Consumer spending in China has been lackluster as apartment prices have fallen by a fifth in the past two years, according to semiofficial data. The number of housing transactions has also plummeted. Homeowners complain that they must cut prices by up to half if they want to find buyers.

根据半官方数据，随着过去两年房价下跌了五分之一，中国的消费支出一直低迷。住房交易数量也大幅下降。房主抱怨说，他们必须把价格降一半才能找到买家。

Real estate represents 60 to 80 percent of household assets, a much larger share than in most countries. So the near collapse of the housing market has left many families feeling less affluent and struggling to meet mortgage payments.

房地产占家庭资产的60%至80%，这一比例远高于大多数国家。因此，房地产市场的几近崩溃让许多家庭感觉财富减少，而且难以偿还抵押贷款。

Mr. Li mentioned real estate and a related problem, local government debt, only briefly, during a discussion of risks. Over the past four decades, he said, “risks and challenges have not defeated us.”

在讨论风险时，李强只是简短地提到了房地产和一个相关的问题——地方债。他说，在过去的40年里，“风险和挑战没有打败我们。”

Mr. Li said the government would look to provide legal residency for the more than 250 million people from farm families who have moved permanently to cities but have not qualified for residency there. Cities provide far higher medical, retirement and educational benefits than rural areas.

李强说，政府将为超过2.5亿永久迁移到城市但不符合居留条件的农民家庭人口提供合法居住权。城市提供的医疗、退休和教育福利远高于农村地区。

But Mr. Li did not explain how city governments that are already running out of money could afford to provide these costly benefits.

但是李强并没有解释已经陷入财政困境的城市政府将如何负担这些昂贵的福利开支。

The mantra of “new, quality productive forces” is aimed partly at allaying worries in China and abroad that American-led restrictions on high-tech exports to China might stunt its growth. In briefings before the forum, officials emphasized that manufacturing represents a large part of the country’s economy — more than double the share in the United States.

“新质生产力”这一口号部分是为了缓解国内外对于美国主导的对华高科技出口限制可能阻碍中国增长的担忧。在论坛召开前的简报会上，官员们强调，制造业在中国经济中占很大比重，是美国的两倍多。

“In China, you can see it is consistently on the rise and far higher than in other countries,” Shi Dan, a director general of economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government ministry, said at a briefing.

“在中国，可以看到它一直在增长，远高于其他国家，”中国社会科学院一家经济研究所的所长史丹在一次新闻发布会上说。

China’s trade partners are worried that more manufacturing will likely lead to more Chinese exports. The European Union is preparing to impose tariffs on electric cars from China. The European Union Chamber of Commerce issued a report last Wednesday warning that the policy could lead to deindustrialization in Europe, as European companies may not be able to compete with government-backed Chinese businesses.

中国的贸易伙伴担心，制造业的增长可能导致中国出口增加。欧盟正准备对来自中国的电动汽车征收关税。欧盟商会上周三发布的报告警告，中国增强制造业的政策可能导致欧洲去工业化，因为欧洲企业可能无法与有政府背景的中国企业竞争。

Companies that have depended on selling commodities to China for housing and infrastructure construction have been watching closely the redoubled emphasis on high-tech manufacturing.

那些依赖向中国出售大宗商品用于住房和基础设施建设的公司一直在密切关注中国对高科技制造业的进一步重视。

Andrew Forrest, the executive chairman of Fortescue Metals Group, an Australian iron ore mining giant, said that China will inevitably continue spending a lot on infrastructure, including roads, rail lines and ports.

澳大利亚铁矿石开采巨头福蒂斯丘金属集团的执行主席安德鲁·福雷斯特表示，中国将不可避免地继续在基础设施上投入大量资金，包括公路、铁路和港口。

“The situation on infrastructure won’t actually be a switch away from it, it’ll be just an emphasis on manufacturing,” he said in an interview.

他在接受采访时表示：“基础设施方面的情况实际上不会有太大改变，只是对制造业的重视会更多而已。”

Chinese officials have made numerous promises to stabilize the housing market, but have offered few details on how.

中国官员多次承诺要稳定房地产市场，但几乎没有提供具体细节。

Li Xuesong, another director general of economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said at a briefing that local governments could provide more apartments for public sector workers. But he did not address how local governments, many of which are laboring under heavy debts, would pay for these apartments.

中国社会科学院的另一位经济研究所所长李雪松在一次新闻发布会上说，地方政府可以为公共部门的工作人员提供更多的住房。但他没有提到地方政府将如何支付这些公寓的费用，其中许多地方政府都背负着沉重的债务。

After a recent collapse in sales of public land to real estate developers, many local governments have had to cut pay for municipal workers and have needed assistance from Beijing to make interest payments. The Chinese finance ministry has begun a program to help some cities with their debts, provided they curtail costly but popular programs to build infrastructure.

最近，出售给房地产开发商的公共土地大幅减少之后，许多地方政府不得不削减市政工作人员的工资，并需要中央政府的帮助来支付利息。中国财政部已经启动了一项帮助一些城市偿还债务的计划，条件是这些城市削减成本高昂但广受欢迎的基础设施建设项目。

Helping consumers to afford more spending is crucial, said Wang Dan, the chief China economist in the Shanghai office at Hang Seng Bank, at an online conference hosted by the International Finance Forum, an affiliate of China’s central bank. “A direct cash transfer would still be the most effective way,” she said.

在中国央行下属机构国际金融论坛主办的一次在线会议上，恒生银行上海办事处首席中国经济学家王丹表示，帮助消费者负担得起更多支出至关重要。她表示：“直接现金转移仍将是最有效的方式。”

For now, the emphasis in China is on strengthening the supply and quality of goods, and not on worrying about demand.

目前，中国的重点是加强商品的供应和质量，而不是担心需求。

“The growth momentum of investment in new driving forces is good,” said Liu Sushe, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission.

“新动能投资增长势头良好，”国家发改委副主任刘苏社表示。