纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英中国出口激增引发欧美国家警惕与担忧

China’s factory exports are powering ahead faster than almost anyone expected, putting jobs around the world in jeopardy and setting off a backlash that is gaining momentum.

中国的工厂出口正在以几乎超出所有人预期的速度迅猛增长，使世界各地的就业受到威胁，并引发了日益增长的反对声音。

From steel and cars to consumer electronics and solar panels, Chinese factories are finding more overseas buyers for goods. The world’s appetite for its goods is welcomed by China, which is enduring a severe downturn in what had been the economy’s biggest driver of growth: building and outfitting apartments. But other countries are increasingly concerned that China’s rise is coming partly at their expense, and are starting to take action.

从钢铁和汽车，到消费电子产品和太阳能电池板，中国的工厂正在为商品找到更多的海外买家。中国欢迎世界对其商品的胃口，因为曾是其经济增长最大推动力的公寓建设和装修行业正在经历严重衰退。但其他国家越来越担心，中国的出口增长在一定程度上是以他国利益为代价的，所以正在开始采取行动。

The European Union announced last week that it was preparing to charge tariffs, which are import taxes, on all electric cars arriving from China. The European Union said that it had found “substantial evidence” that Chinese government agencies have been illegally subsidizing these exports, something China denies.

欧盟上周宣布，准备对所有来自中国的电动汽车征收关税。欧盟称，已发现“大量证据”表明中国政府部门一直在非法补贴电动汽车出口，而中国对此予以否认。

The amount of the tariffs will not be set until summer but will apply to any electric car imported by the bloc from March 7 onward.

虽然关税的数额要等到夏天才能确定，但将适用于欧盟从3月7日起进口的所有电动汽车。

During a visit to Beijing in December, European leaders warned that China is compensating for its housing crisis by building far more factories than it needs.

欧洲领导人曾在去年12月访问北京时警告，中国正在通过建设远超过本国需求的工厂来弥补房地产行业的危机。

China already produces a third of the world’s manufactured goods, more than the United States, Germany, Japan and South Korea combined, according to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization.

据联合国工业发展组织，中国已经生产世界上三分之一的制成品，比美国、德国、日本和韩国生产的总和还多。

The European Union has also been mulling import restrictions on wind turbines and solar panels from China. India announced last September that it would impose broad tariffs on steel from China. Turkey has been complaining that China is lopsidedly sending it exports while buying little.

欧盟也一直在考虑限制来自中国的风力涡轮机和太阳能电池板的进口。印度去年9月宣布将对中国钢铁征收大范围的关税。土耳其也一直抱怨中国对其出口多，进口少。

The Biden administration, which has kept former President Donald J. Trump’s tariffs in place, has imposed an ever-lengthening list of restrictions on American high-tech exports.

拜登政府已维持了前总统特朗普对中国产品加征的关税，并对美国高技术产品的出口进行越来越多的限制。

“I’ve made sure that the most advanced American technologies can’t be used in China, not allowing to trade them there,” President Biden said in his State of the Union address on Thursday.

“我已确保中国不能使用最先进的美国技术，不允许它们在中国交易，”拜登在上周四的国情咨文演讲中说。

China’s exports, measured in dollars, rose 7 percent in January and February over last year. But falling prices for many Chinese products — because of a glut of output in China — mean that the physical quantity of exports and their global market share are rising much faster.

中国今年1月和2月以美元计算的出口总额比去年同期增长了7%。但由于中国产能过剩导致价格下降，这意味着出口的实际数量及所占的全球市场份额的增速要高得多。

China has found ways to bypass some tariffs. Chinese components go in rising volumes to countries like Vietnam, Malaysia and Mexico. These countries process the goods, so that they count as their own products and not as made in China. These countries then ship the goods to the United States and European Union, which charge them low tariffs or even no tariffs.

中国已找到了绕过一些关税的办法。中国销往越南、马来西亚和墨西哥等国的零部件数量不断增长。这些国家把零部件加工成产品，然后将其视为本国制造，而不是中国制造。这些国家然后将产品销往对它们征收低关税甚至零关税的美国和欧盟。

The United States and European Union are becoming concerned.

美国和欧盟对此变得越来越担心。

Katherine Tai, the United States trade representative, warned last week in comments at a Brookings Institution event that the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement, was up for review in the summer of 2026. She hinted that the United States might insist on tightening rules on the origin of components, notably for cars — a position also espoused last autumn by Robert E. Lighthizer, who was former President Trump's trade representative and is now the leading trade adviser to Mr. Trump’s election campaign.

美国贸易代表戴琪上周在布鲁金斯学会的一个活动上讲话时警告说，将在2026年夏对美墨加协定进行审查，该协定取代了北美自由贸易协议。她暗示，美国可能会坚持要求收紧对零部件原产地的规定，尤其是汽车零部件，这也是罗伯特·莱特希泽去年秋天支持的立场，莱特希泽曾在特朗普手下担任贸易代表，现在是特朗普竞选活动的首席贸易顾问。

China “already is a really important element of tension and concern” in North American trade relations, Ms. Tai said.

戴琪表示，中国在北美贸易关系中“已是一个非常重要的紧张和担心因素”。

In addition to looming tariffs on imported clean energy products, Europe will soon phase in a tax on imports from all over the world based on the quantity of climate-changing carbon dioxide emitted during their production.

除了将对清洁能源产品的进口征收关税外，欧洲很快还将根据生产过程中排放的导致气候变化的二氧化碳量，对来自世界各地的进口产品征税。

The new tax is known as a carbon border adjustment mechanism, or CBAM. But it has been nicknamed the “C-bomb” in Europe because it will fall heavily on imports that come directly or indirectly from China. Two-thirds of the electricity in China is generated by burning heavily polluting coal, which means many of its exports to Europe could be hit with the new tax.

这个新税的名称是欧盟碳边境调整机制（或称CBAM）。但它在欧洲已有了“C弹”的绰号，因为它将主要落在直接或间接从中国进口的产品上。中国三分之二的电力来自燃烧污染最严重的煤，这意味着中国对欧洲的许多出口将会受这个新税的打击。

Europe and the United States also face threats from China to their longstanding economic relationships in developing countries, which increasingly choose cheaper Chinese goods. Across much of Latin America and Africa, countries now buy more from China than nearby industrial democracies, and the United States and Europe can do little about it.

欧洲和美国在它们与发展中国家的长期经济关系上也面临着来自中国的威胁，发展中国家已越来越多地选择更便宜的中国商品。拉丁美洲和非洲各地的国家现在从中国购买的商品比从附近的工业化民主国家购买的多，美国和欧洲对此几乎束手无策。

“There are no rules to stop dumped and subsidized products from undercutting your exports to the rest of the world,” said Susan C. Schwab, who was United States trade representative under President George W. Bush.

“没有任何规则可以阻止倾销和补贴产品削弱你对世界其他地方的出口，”曾在小布什政府担任美国贸易代表的苏珊·施瓦布说。

For their part, Chinese officials expressed concern during the annual session of the country’s legislature, which ended on Monday, about what they perceive as a wave of unfair protectionism. China’s commerce minister, Wang Wentao, cited a recent International Monetary Fund study that found the number of trade restrictions around the world had nearly tripled in the past four years, many of them aimed at China.

在中国官员看来，这是一波他们称之为不公平保护主义的浪潮，在周一结束的全国人民代表大会上，他们表达了这种担忧。中国商务部部长王文涛引用了国际货币基金组织最近的一项研究，该研究发现，世界各地限制贸易的措施在过去四年里几乎增长了两倍，其中许多是针对中国的。

Foreign trade officials and economists generally cite three aspects of China’s industrial policy that help exports. State banks give loans for factories at low interest rates. Cities transfer public land for factory construction at little or no cost. And the state electricity grid keeps prices low.

外贸官员和经济学家通常提到中国产业政策帮助出口的三个方面。国有银行以低利率向工厂提供贷款。城市以极低成本或无成本转让公共土地用于工厂建设。国家电网为工厂提供低价电。

According to China’s central bank, new lending for industry soared to $670 billion last year from $83 billion in 2019. By contrast, net lending for real estate was $800 billion in 2019 but shrank $75 billion last year.

据中国央行的数据，工业贷款去年增加了4.82万亿元，而2019年只增加了5912亿元。相比之下，房地产贷款2019年全年增加了5.71万亿元，去年却减少了5263亿元。

Zheng Shanjie, China’s top economic planner, reaffirmed China’s industrial policy last week, saying that “land and energy will be channeled to good projects.”

中国最高经济规划官员郑栅洁上周重申了中国的产业政策，要“让用地、用能等要素跟着好项目走”。

China’s explosion in exports is visible in its trade surplus in manufactured goods, which is the largest the world has seen since World War II.

中国的出口猛增从其制成品贸易顺差中可见一斑，这是第二次世界大战以来世界上最大的。

Those surpluses correspond to deficits in other countries, which can be a drag on their growth.

中国的贸易顺差对应的是可能会拖累其他国家经济增长的贸易逆差。

The widening surplus is not only about rising exports. China has reduced or stopped buying many manufactured goods from the West as part of a series of national security and economic development measures over the past two decades.

中国顺差的扩大不仅与出口增长有关。作为过去20年来采取的一系列国家安全和经济发展措施的一部分，中国已减少或停止了从西方购买许多制成品。

China’s surpluses in manufactured goods are now roughly twice as big, relative to the global economy, as the biggest surpluses achieved by Japan during the 1980s or Germany right before the global financial crisis, according to calculations by Brad Setser and Michael Weilandt, economists at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

据纽约外交关系委员会的经济学家布拉德·塞策和迈克尔·魏兰特的计算，相对于全球经济总量，中国目前的制成品贸易顺差大约是日本在20世纪80年代或全球金融危机前德国所达到的最大顺差的两倍左右。

Deficits with Japan and Germany were long tolerated because they are American allies.

美国长期以来一直允许对日本和德国的贸易赤字，因为它们是美国的盟友。

But China is an increasingly close ally of Russia, North Korea and Iran. The foreign minister, Wang Yi, mentioned all three warmly, particularly Russia, at a news conference last week.

但中国正在成为俄罗斯、朝鲜和伊朗越来越密切的盟友。外交部长王毅在上周的记者会上热情地提到了这三个国家，尤其是俄罗斯。

“Maintaining and developing China-Russia relations is a strategic choice made by both sides based on the fundamental interests of the two peoples,” he said. Russia has become one of China’s fastest-growing export markets, particularly for cars, as industrial democracies’ exporters have stopped selling to Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

“维护好、发展好中俄关系，是双方基于两国人民根本利益作出的战略选择，”他说。俄罗斯已成为中国增长最快的出口市场之一之一，尤其是汽车出口，因为工业化民主国家的出口商们已在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后停止了对俄出口。

Western economists, and even some economists in China, have been calling for China to do more to help consumers instead of increasing factory output. Premier Li Qiang, China’s second-highest official after Xi Jinping, told the legislature in his annual speech last week that he would move in that direction, but his steps were small.

西方经济学家曾一直建议中国采取更多措施帮助消费者，而不是增加工厂产能，就连一些中国经济学家也这样建议过。地位仅次于习近平的中国二号高官国务院总理李强上周在全国人大年度会议上发表讲话时表示会朝这个方向迈进，但他的步伐很小。

He said that China would raise minimum government pensions for seniors, for example, but only by $3 a month. That would cost less than a tenth of a percent of the country’s economic output.

例如，他说，基础养老金每月最低标准将提高20元。这笔费用不到中国经济产出的千分之一。