纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英中国年度政府工作报告释放了哪些信号

Beijing was abuzz with politics on Tuesday. China’s annual legislative meeting — the National People’s Congress, when Communist Party leaders promote their solutions for national ills — opened for business.

周二的北京政治气氛热烈。中国每年一次的立法会议——全国人民代表大会开幕了，中共领导人将在会议期间推出他们解决国家问题的方案。

The event is a chance for the leaders to signal the direction of the economy and outline how and where the government will spend money in the coming year.

这个年度会议是领导人示意经济发展方向，并阐述政府在未来一年将把钱花在哪里的机会。

Yet while aiming high, they offered little. Officials signaled that they were not ready for any showstopping moves to revive an economy battered by a property crisis, the loss of consumer confidence and financial pressures of indebted local governments. Despite their reluctance to spend, China’s top leaders said the economy would grow around 5 percent this year.

然而，虽然领导人的目标定很高，但他们提供的却很少。官员们发出的信号是，他们还不准备为重振经济拿出任何为人瞩目的措施，房地产危机、消费者信心丧失，以及负债累累的地方政府造成的财政压力已拖累了中国经济。虽然不愿花钱，但中国领导层仍把今年的经济增长目标设定在5%左右。

The growth target and other policies came in a report given to the annual session of the legislature. It was delivered by China’s No. 2 official, Li Qiang, and is the marquee event in a weeklong gathering dominated by officials and party loyalists.

这个增长目标和其他政策是在提交给全国人大的报告中提出的。报告由中国二号官员李强在会上宣读，在为期一周的会议上，这是重头戏，出席会议的主要是政府官员和党的忠实拥护者。

Everyone agrees: The target is ambitious.

所有的人都同意：这个增长目标雄心勃勃。

There was one word economists universally used to describe China’s growth target of 5 percent: ambitious.

经济学家们普遍用一个词来描述中国5%的增长目标：雄心勃勃。

That once wouldn’t have been the case. For decades, China’s economy was synonymous with much higher growth, sometimes even in double digits. But three years of strict pandemic measures took a toll, and a deepening real estate crisis that has led to the collapse of dozens of developers. With China’s leaders short on action, some experts are now skeptical that China will pull off 5 percent growth this year.

若是放在以前，这个目标并不算高。几十年来，中国的经济曾以远高于这个目标的速度增长，有时甚至是两位数。但三年严格的疫情防控措施已损害了经济，加剧了房地产危机，导致数十家开发商倒闭。由于中国领导人缺乏行动，一些专家现在对中国今年能否实现5%的增长持怀疑态度。

“It’s an unsurprisingly unrealistic set of targets,” said Logan Wright, director of China markets research at Rhodium Group, a firm that specializes in China research.

“这是一组毫无疑问不切实际的目标，”荣鼎集团的中国市场研究主管洛根·赖特说，该公司专门从事中国研究。

It was still possible that the property crisis could ease this year, Mr. Wright said, “but policy measures as outlined here will not have much to do with it.”

虽然房地产危机今年仍有可能缓解，赖特说，“但政府工作报告里概述的政策措施对其不会起太大作用。”

Wait, no ‘bazooka’?

等等，没有‘大杀器’吗？

Some people believed — or hoped, at least — that Tuesday’s reports would telegraph that China was ready to take bigger steps to resuscitate the economy, for example by bailing out local governments, rescuing the property companies that have not collapsed, or offering handouts to households to spur spending.

一些人原以为——或至少曾希望——周二的政府工作报告会透露信息，表示中国已准备好采取更大手笔的措施来振兴经济，例如为地方政府提供救助，拯救尚未倒闭的房地产公司，或者为了刺激消费，向家庭发钱。

Instead, the government said it would make available a similar amount of money as last year in special bonds for local governments. It offered no new measures for the property market and only talked about the need to boost consumer confidence.

然而，政府表示，将用与去年数额相似的资金为地方政府提供专项债券。政府工作报告中没有为房地产市场采取新措施，只提到需要增强消费者信心。

“They could have done more, and the support could have been greater,” said Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS. “They need bigger explicit central government support,” she said.

“他们本可以做得更多，本可以提供更大的支持，”瑞银证券中国首席经济学家汪涛说。“他们需要中央政府更明确的支持，”她说。

It wasn’t just economists who were underwhelmed. Investors who hoped China would deploy the big guns were let down, too. In Hong Kong, where foreign investors can make bets on China’s biggest companies, the Hang Seng Index fell 2.6 percent.

不只是经济学家感觉不到兴奋。曾希望中国拿出大手笔措施的投资者们也颇为失望。香港的恒生指数下跌了2.6%，香港股市是外国投资者能押注中国大公司的地方。

“Anybody who is looking for the policy bazooka is going to be disappointed,” said Andrew Polk, co-founder of Trivium China, a research and advisory firm. “But,” he added, “that die was cast a while ago.”

“任何期待政策大杀器的人都将失望，”研究和咨询公司策纬的联合创始人安德鲁·波尔克说。“但事已成定局已有一段时间了，”他补充道。

When it comes to military, there is money to spend.

涉及军事，就有钱花。

China’s top leaders outlined plans to expand military spending by 7.2 percent in 2024, reaching about $231 billion. The percentage rise was the same as last year and continued a decades-long expansion of China’s military outlays, now the second largest in the world after the United States.

中国领导层简单描述的计划是军费预算将在2024年增加7.2%，达到1.665万亿元人民币（约合2310亿美元）。增加的百分比与去年相同，延续了军费几十年来的增长趋势，中国的军事预算现居世界第二，仅次于美国。

China’s spending on warships, jet fighters and other weapons is mostly about projecting power in Asia, including by cementing the country’s hold over the disputed South China Sea and menacing Taiwan, the self-ruled island democracy that Beijing says is its territory.

中国在军舰、喷气式战斗机，以及其他武器上的支出主要是为了在亚洲投射力量，包括巩固中国对有争议的南中国海的控制，以及威胁台湾——北京称这个民主自治的岛屿是中国领土。

In his report to the legislature, Mr. Li repeated China’s long-established warning against “separatist activities aimed at ‘Taiwan independence,’” adding that Beijing would “be firm in advancing the cause of China’s reunification.”

李强在向全国人大提交的报告中重申了中国长期以来对“‘台独’分裂”的警告，并补充说，中国政府将“坚定不移推进祖国统一大业”。

Mr. Li’s vague comments reflected how Chinese leaders are waiting for Taiwan’s president-elect, Lai Ching-te, to take office in May before they consider any big moves, which could include more military operations around the island, said Ou Si-fu, a researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a think tank in Taipei under Taiwan’s ministry of defense.

台湾国防部下属的台北智库台湾国防安全研究院的研究员欧锡富说，李强在台湾问题上的模糊说法反映了中国领导人正在观望，等台湾当选总统赖清德今年5月就职后再考虑采取任何大动作，其中可能包括在台湾周边进行更多的军事行动。

But China’s continued heavy spending on its military showed that Xi Jinping would continue girding for potential conflict, if only to show Washington that it was serious about asserting its interests.

但中国继续增加军费表明，习近平将继续为潜在的冲突做准备，即便只是为了向华盛顿表明，它在维护自身利益上是认真的。

“Since the relationship with the United States is not good, of course China cannot show weakness too much,” Mr. Ou said.

“因为与美国的关系不好，中国当然不能太多地示弱，”欧锡富说。

Come join us. Sorry, the news conference is canceled.

来加入我们吧。抱歉，记者会取消了。

China invited journalists from around the world and handed out visas that have in most cases become difficult to obtain. For many foreign correspondents, this year’s National People’s Congress was the first time that the Chinese government has allowed them to enter China to report since the pandemic.

中国邀请了世界各地的记者，发放了在大多数情况下已很难拿到的签证。对许多外国记者来说，今年的全国人大会议是疫情暴发以来，中国政府首次允许他们入境做报道。

Yet the party also made an abrupt change to the way it would communicate at the congress. On Monday, it said it was scrapping a longstanding tradition: the premier’s news conference. It had been one of the few opportunities for journalists to interact with top officials. The decision to do away with the news conference, announced on the eve of the legislative conclave, was seen by many as another move away from transparency.

然而，中共也突然改变了人大会期间与记者沟通的方式。周一，它宣布取消一个长期的传统：总理记者会。那曾是记者与中国高层官员沟通的为数不多的机会之一。在全国人大闭门开会的前夕宣布取消总理记者会，这个决定在许多人看来是向越来越不透明迈出的又一步。