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纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英美使馆微博成哭墙中国投资者在绝望与愤怒中逃离A股

February 19, 2024   7 min   1312 words

这篇报道描绘了中国投资者在A股市场亏损严重的困境,以及他们对政府的不满和对美国市场的向往。通过在美国大使馆微博上留言,他们表达了对投资损失、房产下跌以及政府封锁公开讨论的愤怒和绝望。这种方式凸显了中国社会中对股市、经济前景和政府治理能力逐渐丧失信心的现象。投资者们逐渐将目光转向表现更好的海外市场,这反映了他们对国内局势的担忧。 文章中的评论者指出,股市表现反映了中美在国力、科技、人文和幸福感方面的差距,这是一个具有深刻见解的观点。报道还提到投资者对政府解决经济问题的不信任,以及在严格控制的社会中,通过在微博上留言表达不满成为一种逃避审查的方式。最后,报道指出这些现象可能是公众情绪的一个先兆,如果经济不迅速复苏,人们可能继续质疑政府,并寻找创新的表达不满的方式。 总的来说,这篇报道展示了中国投资者面临的压力和对国内情势的不满,以及他们对美国市场的向往。这也反映了中国社会中一些深层次问题的复杂性,包括政府治理、经济结构和社会不满情绪。

Xinmei Liu

Like many Chinese people, Jacky hoped that he could make enough money investing in China’s stock markets to help pay for an apartment in a big city. But in 2015 he lost $30,000, and in 2021 he lost $80,000. After that, he shut down his trading account and started investing in Chinese funds that track stocks in the United States.

和许多中国人一样,杰基希望通过投资中国股市赚到足够的钱,以支付在大城市买房的费用。但2015年他亏损了3万美元,2021年又亏损了8万美元。之后,他关闭了自己的交易账户,开始投资追踪美国股市的中国基金。

It’s a perilous time for investors in China. Their main vehicle, so-called A shares of Chinese companies, fell more than 11 percent in 2023 and have continued their losses this year. Many investors have instead flocked to the exchange-traded funds that track foreign markets and that have been performing much better.

对于中国的投资者来说,这是一个危险的时期。他们的主要投资工具,即所谓的中国A股,在2023年跌幅超过11%,并在今年继续亏损。许多投资者转而涌向追踪外国市场的交易基金,这些基金的表现要好得多。

Putting money in stocks is inherently risky. But Chinese investors are experiencing something especially alarming: financial losses in the markets, declining home values and a government that doesn’t want any public discussion of what’s happening.

投资股市本来就有风险。但中国投资者正经历着特别令人担忧的事:市场上的财务损失、房屋价值的下降,而政府完全不愿让公众讨论正在发生什么。

With their frustrations piling up, Chinese investors recently found a way to vent that wouldn’t be quickly censored. They started leaving comments on an innocuous post about giraffe conservation on the official Weibo social media account of the U.S. Embassy in China. They lamented the poor performance of their portfolios and revealed their broader despair, anger and frustration. The giraffe post has been liked nearly one million times since Feb. 2, much more than what the embassy’s Weibo posts usually get. Many of the comments also offered admiration for the United States, as well as unhappiness about their own country.

随着不满情绪的堆积,中国投资者最近找到了一种不会很快被审查的发泄方式。他们开始在美国驻华大使馆官方微博一篇关于长颈鹿保护的无关帖子下留言。他们哀叹自己的投资组合表现不佳,并流露出更广泛的绝望、愤怒和不满。自2月2日以来,这条长颈鹿帖子已被点赞近一百万次,远高于使馆微博通常的点赞数量。许多评论还表达了对美国的钦佩以及对自己国家的不满情绪。

“The different stock markets’ performances reflect the distances between America and China in terms of national power, technology, humanity and sense of well-being,” a commenter wrote.

一名评论者写道:“股市的不同表现反映了中美两国在国力、科技、人文和幸福感方面的差距。”

The comments demonstrate a growing loss of confidence by the Chinese public in the stock market, the country’s economic prospects and the Chinese Communist Party’s ability to govern.

这些言论表明,中国民众对股市、国家经济前景和中国共产党的执政能力越来越失去信心

“Their reactions are more than about losing money in the markets,” said Jacky, an analyst in the manufacturing industry who is earning half of what he was making two years ago and is juggling several jobs. “The venting probably serves as an outlet for their accumulated frustrations in life.”

“他们这种反应不仅是因为在市场上亏了钱,”身为制造业分析师的杰基说,他现在的收入只有两年前的一半,而且还身兼数职。“这些发泄可能是对他们在生活中积累的不满的一种宣泄。”

中国证券监督管理委员会的办公地点,其领导人已被免职,外界认为此举是为了增强投资者信心。
中国证券监督管理委员会的办公地点,其领导人已被免职,外界认为此举是为了增强投资者信心。 Pedro Pardo/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Another investor I spoke to, Leo, a portfolio manager at an asset management company in Beijing, has been investing in China’s stock markets for nearly a decade. In November, he started closing out his positions. Now, like Jacky, he is placing his bets on overseas markets.

与我交谈的另一位投资者里奥是北京一家资产管理公司的投资经理,他投资中国股市已有近十年时间。去年11月,他开始平仓。现在,他和杰基一样,把赌注押在了海外市场。

Leo said he used to hope that China’s internet giants Alibaba and Tencent would become $1 trillion companies like Amazon, and that investors like him would benefit from their growth. “That dream was shattered” after the government cracked down on tech in 2020, he said. “I can only look to the overseas markets now.”

里奥说,他曾经希望中国的互联网巨头阿里巴巴和腾讯能像亚马逊一样成为市值1万亿美元的公司,并希望像他这样的投资者能从这些公司的发展中获益。2020年中国政府打击科技行业后,“这个梦想破灭了,”他说。“我现在只能把目光投向海外市场。”

The American Embassy’s Weibo comments section once served as an online punching bag for nationalistic Chinese who blamed the United States for their country’s problems. Now it’s called the Western Wall of China’s A shares investors.

美国大使馆的微博评论区曾是中国民族主义者的网络出气筒,他们把自己国家的问题归咎于美国。现在,它被称为中国A股投资者的哭墙。

“Under the protection of the U.S. government,” wrote one commenter, “the giraffes are 10,000 times happier than the Chinese stock investors.”

一名评论者写道:“在美国政府的保护下,长颈鹿比中国股民幸福一万倍。”

In a tightly controlled society like China’s, it’s rare to see such a robust expression of public sentiment. The comments could also serve as a harbinger if the economy doesn’t recover soon. Despite being bombarded by propaganda and intimidated by the government, people may continue to question their government and find creative ways to express their discontent.

在中国这样一个受到严格控制的社会中,很少能看到如此强烈的公众情绪表达。如果经济不能快速复苏,这些评论也可能成为预兆。尽管受到宣传的轰炸和政府的恐吓,人们可能会继续质疑政府,并找到创新的方式来表达不满。

It’s always tough to gauge public sentiment in China. People dare not publicly say anything critical about their government. Now even critical comments about the economy are censored and punished. That’s why both Jacky and Leo asked me to use only their English names for fear of reprisal.

在中国,很难判断公众的情绪。人们不敢公开发表任何批评政府的言论。现在,即使是批评经济的言论也会受到审查和惩罚。这就是为什么杰基和里奥都让我用他们的英文名,因为害怕遭到报复。

Still, online outbursts by large groups of people can offer clues about public sentiment. Take, for example, the grief that followed the death of Li Wenliang, a doctor who blew the whistle in the early days of the pandemic. And the widespread mourning after the unexpected death last year of former Premier Li Keqiang, a reformist politician who accomplished little under the country’s leader, Xi Jinping.

尽管如此,大群人在网上的情绪爆发仍能提供有关公众情绪的线索。例如,在疫情初期揭露疫情的医生李文亮去世后,人们表达了悲痛。去年,前总理李克强意外逝世,也引发了普遍哀悼。李克强是一位改革派政治家,但在习近平的领导下却未能有所作为。

Those episodes showed the public’s disapproval of censorship and doubt about the direction that Mr. Xi is taking the country. The comments on the U.S. Embassy’s Weibo account belong in this category.

这些事件表明了公众对审查制度的不满,以及对习近平带领国家前进方向的怀疑。美国大使馆微博上的评论就属于这一类。

Valuable insights into what people are feeling occasionally emerge in unexpected places. A recent survey by the Canton Public Opinion Research Center offered a bleak picture from the southern city of Guangzhou, a metropolis of nearly 19 million people and a hub of technology, manufacturing and trade. In a 2023 survey of 1,000 residents, the center found that the city’s “economy and the society were confronted with unprecedented challenges and pressure.”

有时,对人们真实感受的洞察会在意想不到的地方浮出水面。广州社情民意研究中心近期的一项调查描绘了一幅暗淡的画面。广州是一座拥有近1900万人口的大都市,也是科技、制造和贸易中心。在2023年一项针对1000名居民的调查中,该中心发现广州的“经济和社会面临着前所未有的挑战和压力”。

The research center’s report said residents’ assessment of the economy, because of unemployment and falling incomes, was as low as it was in 2015, when China’s markets tanked. Satisfaction with the growth of the private sector dropped below 30 percent, the lowest level since the question was first asked in 2008. Most residents said they didn’t expect their incomes to improve in 2024, and more than 20 percent said they believed they were “likely” to lose their jobs.

该研究中心的报告称,由于失业以及收入减少,居民对经济的评价与在2015年中国股灾时一样低。对民营经济增长的满意度降至30%以下,这是自2008年首次提出这一问题以来的最低水平。大多数居民表示,他们预计自己的收入在2024年不会改善,超过20%的居民表示,他们认为自己“有可能”失去工作。

News coverage about the survey was censored, and the report can’t be found on the center’s website.

有关该调查的新闻报道受到了审查,在该中心的网站上也找不到这份报告了。

The survey results wouldn’t be surprising to investors.

对于投资者来说,这个调查结果并不令人意外。

Jacky, who is in his mid-30s, lost his job at a private equity firm in 2022. He had to take a deep pay cut when he moved back to manufacturing. He fears he is “on the verge of falling off a cliff.”

杰基今年30出头,在2022年失去了在一家私募股权公司的工作。当他重回制造业时,不得不接受大幅减薪。他担心自己“就要跌落悬崖”。

Leo, who was born in Beijing in the mid-1980s, said he had grown up as a nationalistic “little pink.” The first crack in his confidence, he said, was in 2021 when the government went after internet companies. The second crack appeared when the government abruptly ended its “zero-Covid” policy in December 2022 without preparing the population with effective vaccines or medications. Then in late July, the markets and the private sector failed to respond to government measures to stimulate the economy.

里奥于上世纪80年代中期出生在北京,他说自己小时候是个民族主义“小粉红”。他说,2021年,当政府打压互联网公司时,他的信心出现了第一道裂缝。第二道裂缝出现在2022年12月,政府突然结束了“清零”政策,却没有为民众准备有效的疫苗或药物。在随后的7月下旬,市场和民营部门未能对政府刺激经济的措施做出反应。

阿里巴巴去年在北京举办的中国国际信息通信展览会上的展位。
阿里巴巴去年在北京举办的中国国际信息通信展览会上的展位。 Mark Schiefelbein/Associated Press

Leo’s change is remarkable. He said local Beijing residents like him and the people with whom he had gone to high school were among the stoutest supporters of the Communist Party’s rule because they benefited from the city’s expansion and the country’s growth.

里奥的变化是显著的。他说,像他这样的北京本地居民,还有跟他一起上高中的那些同学都是共产党统治最坚定的支持者,因为他们都从这座城市的扩张和国家的发展中受益。

When a group of Leo’s classmates met up in June, he said, they couldn’t believe that two of them, a couple, were migrating to Canada. When they met again last month, he found that a few of his classmates had opened bank accounts in Hong Kong, which, unlike the mainland, has banks that are connected to the global financial system. They asked him how to convert their savings in renminbi to U.S. dollars and transfer them to Hong Kong.

他说,当他的一群同学在去年6月聚会时,他们难以置信其中一对夫妇将移民加拿大。上个月他们再次见面时,他发现有几个同学已经在香港开设了银行账户,不同于内地,香港的银行与全球金融体系相连。他们向他询问如何将人民币存款兑换成美元并转到香港。

“They’re preparing for the worst-case scenarios,” he said. “No one laughed at the two classmates who migrated to Canada any more. In fact, we’re jealous of them.”

“他们正在为最坏的情况做准备,”他说。“没有人再去嘲笑两位移民的同学。大家都在羡慕他们其实。”

I asked Leo what would have to change for him to invest again in the A shares market.

我问里奥,需要出现哪些改变,他才会再次投资A股市场。

He said the big problems that had made him flee remained unsolved: the imploding real estate sector, enormous local government debts and a fast-aging population.

他说,让他逃离A股的大问题仍未解决:房地产行业的内爆、地方政府债台高筑,以及人口的迅速老龄化

He said that he wanted the government to loosen its grip on private enterprise and disband Communist Party branches that had proliferated inside companies, and that he wanted the private sector to start to invest again. Until then, he will keep his money out of China’s markets.

他说,他希望政府放松对民营企业的控制,解散在企业内部大量组建的党支部,并希望民营部门重新开始投资。在此之前,他不会把资金投入中国市场。

And what investing advice would he give to his families and friends? “Run as fast as you can,” he said, “even at a loss.”

那么他对家人和朋友有什么投资建议?他说,"即使亏损,也要赶快离开。”