纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英中美关系改变贸易格局中国已不是美国最大进口国

In the depths of the pandemic, as global supply chains buckled and the cost of shipping a container to China soared nearly twentyfold, Marco Villarreal spied an opportunity.

在新冠病毒大流行最严重的时候，随着全球供应链的崩溃，将集装箱运往中国的成本飙升了近20倍，而马可·比利亚雷亚尔发现了一个机会。

In 2021, Mr. Villarreal resigned as Caterpillar’s director general in Mexico and began nurturing ties with companies looking to shift manufacturing from China to Mexico. He found a client in Hisun, a Chinese producer of all-terrain vehicles, which hired Mr. Villarreal to establish a $152 million manufacturing site in Saltillo, an industrial hub in northern Mexico.

2021年，比利亚雷亚尔辞去了卡特彼勒的墨西哥总经理一职，开始与那些考虑将制造业从中国转移到墨西哥的公司建立联系。他找到的一个客户是中国全地形车生产商环松，该公司聘请比利亚雷亚尔在墨西哥北部的工业中心萨尔蒂约建一个 价值1.52亿美元的制造业基地。

Mr. Villarreal said foreign companies, particularly those seeking to sell within North America, saw Mexico as a viable alternative to China for several reasons, including the simmering trade tensions between the United States and China.

比利亚雷亚尔说，外国公司，尤其是那些寻求在北美销售的公司，将墨西哥视为中国之外的另一个可行选择，原因有几个，其中一个是美中日益紧张的贸易关系。

“The stars are aligning for Mexico,” he said.

“目前的情况对墨西哥有利，”他说。

New data released on Wednesday showed that Mexico outpaced China to become America’s top source of official imports for the first time in 20 years — a significant shift that highlights how increased tensions between Washington and Beijing are altering trade flows.

周三公布的新数据显示，墨西哥已在20年来首次超过中国，在官方统计中成为美国最大的进口来源国，这个重大转变凸显了中美日益紧张的关系正在如何改变贸易流动。

The United States’ trade deficit with China narrowed significantly last year, with goods imports from the country dropping 20 percent to $427.2 billion, the data shows. American consumers and businesses turned to Mexico, Europe, South Korea, India, Canada and Vietnam for auto parts, shoes, toys and raw materials.

数据显示，美国去年的对华贸易逆差大幅收窄，美国从中国进口的商品额为4272亿美元，同比下降了20%。美国的消费者和企业转向墨西哥、欧洲、韩国、印度、加拿大和越南，购买汽车零部件、鞋子、玩具和原材料。

Mexican exports to the United States were roughly the same as last year, at $475.6 billion.

墨西哥对美国的出口额为4756亿美元，与2022年大致持平。

America’s total trade deficit in goods and services, which consists of exports minus imports, narrowed 18.7 percent. Overall U.S. exports to the world increased slightly in 2023 from the previous year, despite a strong dollar and a soft global economy.

美国的商品和服务贸易逆差总额（总出口额减去总进口额）缩小了18.7%。尽管美元走强，全球经济疲软，美国2023年对世界的总出口额却较上年略有增长。

U.S. imports fell annually as Americans bought less crude oil and chemicals and fewer consumer goods, including cellphones, clothes, camping gear, toys and furniture.

随着美国人购买的原油和化学品减少，手机、衣服、露营装备、玩具和家具等消费品也在减少，美国的进口额逐年下降。

The recent weakness in imports, and drop-off in trade with China, has partially been a reflection of the pandemic. American consumers stuck at home during the pandemic snapped up Chinese-made laptops, toys, Covid tests, athleisure, furniture and home exercise equipment.

美国最近的进口额以及对华贸易的下降在一定程度上反映了新冠病毒大流行期间的异常情况。疫情期间，困在家里的美国消费者购买了大量中国制造的笔记本电脑、玩具、新冠病毒检测盒、运动休闲服装、家具，以及家庭健身器材。

Even as concerns about the coronavirus faded in 2022, the United States continued to import a lot of Chinese products, as bottlenecks at congested U.S. ports finally cleared and businesses restocked their warehouses.

尽管2022年人们对新冠病毒的担忧逐渐消失，但随着造成美国港口拥堵的物流瓶颈终于恢复畅通，企业补充了仓库存货，美国仍继续进口了大量中国产品。

“The world couldn’t get access to enough Chinese goods in ’21, and it gorged on Chinese goods in ’22,” said Brad Setser, an economist and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Everything has been normalizing since then.”

“由于世界在2021年无法得到足够多的中国商品，它在2022年大肆购买中国货，”美国外交关系委员会的经济学家和高级研究员布拉德·塞策说。“那之后，一切已恢复正常。”

But beyond the unusual swings in annual patterns in the last few years, trade data is beginning to provide compelling evidence that years of heightened tensions have significantly chipped away at America’s trading relationship with China.

但贸易数据不仅表现了过去几年的异常大起大落，也提供了令人信服的证据，表明多年来的紧张局势已显著削弱了美中贸易关系。

In 2023, U.S. quarterly imports from China were at roughly the same level as they were 10 years ago, despite a decade of growth in the American economy and rising U.S. imports from elsewhere in the world.

2023年，美国从中国的季度进口额与十年前的水平大致相同，尽管美国经济十年来一直在增长，而且美国从世界其他地方的进口不断增加。

“We are decoupling, and that’s weighing heavily on trade flows,” Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said of the United States and China.

“我们正在脱钩，这对贸易流动有重大影响，”穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家马克·赞迪在谈到美国和中国时说。

Economists say the relative decrease in trade with China is clearly linked to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and then maintained by the Biden administration.

经济学家说，美中贸易的相对下降与加征关税有明显的关系，关税是特朗普政府加征的，之后的拜登政府维持了关税。

Research by Caroline Freund, the dean of the University of California at San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy, showed that trade with China fell for products that have high tariffs, like screwdrivers and smoke detectors, while trade in products that do not have tariffs, like hair dryers and microwave ovens, continued to grow.

加州大学圣迭哥分校的全球政策与战略学院院长卡罗琳·弗罗因德的研究显示，美国从中国进口的螺丝刀和烟雾探测器等高关税产品减少，与此同时，吹风机和微波炉等未加征关税产品的进口额继续增长。

Ralph Ossa, the chief economist for the World Trade Organization, said that trade between the United States and China had not collapsed, but that it had been growing about 30 percent more slowly than trade between those countries and the rest of the world.

世界贸易组织的首席经济学家拉尔夫·奥萨说，美中贸易虽然没有崩溃，但增长速度比两国与世界其他国家之间的贸易增长速度要慢30%左右。

There were two episodes in recent history where U.S. trade with China slowed notably, he said. The first was when trade tensions between the countries escalated in 2018. The second was when Russia invaded Ukraine, prompting the United States and its allies to impose strict sanctions and further reshuffling global trade relationships.

他说，近期历史上有过两次中美贸易显着放缓的情况。第一次是2018年两国的贸易紧张局势升级。第二次是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，导致美国及其盟友严厉制裁俄罗斯，全球贸易关系进一步重新洗牌。

“There was a period where geopolitics didn’t really matter for trade much, but as uncertainty increases in the world, we do see that trade becomes more sensitive to these positions,” said Stela Rubinova, a research economist at the World Trade Organization.

“曾有过一段地缘政治对贸易没有多大影响的时间，但随着世界上不确定性的增加，我们的确看到贸易变得对这些问题更敏感，”在世贸组织研究经济的学者斯特拉·鲁宾诺娃说。

Some economists caution that the U.S. reduction in trade with China might not be as sharp as bilateral data shows. That is because like Hisun, the Chinese vehicle producer, some multinationals have shifted portions of their manufacturing out of China and into other countries but continued sourcing some raw materials and parts from China.

一些经济学家警告，美国对华贸易的减少也许并不像双边贸易数据显示的那么严重。这是因为，与中国汽车生产商环松一样，一些跨国公司已将部分制造业务从中国转移到了其他国家，但它们继续从中国采购一些原材料和零部件。

In other cases, companies may simply be routing goods that are actually made in China through other countries to avoid U.S. tariffs.

还有些情况是，公司可能只是将实际上在中国制造的商品通过其他国家运往美国，以避免关税。

U.S. trade statistics do not record such products as coming from China, even though a significant portion of their value would have been created there.

美国的贸易统计数据并没有将这类进口产品归为来自中国，尽管其价值的很大一部分是中国创造的。

Ms. Freund, who wrote a recent paper on the subject, said the two countries’ trade relationship was “definitely being attenuated, but not as much as the official statistics suggest.”

弗罗因德最近写过一篇有关这个问题的论文，她说，美中贸易关系“肯定是在减弱，但不像官方统计数据显示的那么严重”。

Still, geopolitical risks are clearly pushing companies to look to other markets, particularly those with low costs and stable trading relationships with the United States, like Mexico.

尽管如此，地缘政治风险正在明显地推动企业转向其他市场，尤其是那些制造成本低、与美国贸易关系稳定的市场，例如墨西哥。

Jesús Carmona, the president for Mexico and Central America at Schneider Electric, the French electrical equipment giant, said that the Biden administration’s 2022 climate law and geopolitical tensions stemming from the war in Ukraine were both factors pushing companies toward Mexico.

法国电气设备巨头施耐德电气的墨西哥和中美洲总裁赫苏斯·卡莫纳表示，拜登政府2022年通过的气候法、俄乌战争引发的地缘政治紧张局势，都是推动企业转向墨西哥的因素。

When China appeared to align with Russia in the conflict, “it triggered all sorts of alarms,” Mr. Carmona said. “People realized we cannot have such dependencies on China, which we built up over the last 40 years as we were making China the factory of the world.”

中国在俄乌战争中似乎站在俄罗斯一边，“引起了各种各样的警觉，”卡莫纳说。“人们意识到，我们不能如此依赖中国，这种依赖是我们在过去40年里形成的，我们让中国变成了世界工厂。”

Schneider, which already had a substantial presence in Mexico with nine factories and nearly 12,000 employees, decided in 2021 that it needed to grow further in the country. Now, after opening new manufacturing sites and expanding existing plants, the company has about 16,000 employees in Mexico, with plans for that number to soon reach about 20,000.

施耐德在墨西哥已经有了庞大的业务规模，它在那里有九家工厂和近1.2万名员工，并于2021年决定在墨西哥进一步发展。在建设了新生产基地、扩建了现有工厂后，施耐德目前在墨西哥有大约1.6万名员工，并计划很快将员工人数增加到约2万名。

Schneider sends about 75 percent to 80 percent of its production in Mexico to the United States, including an array of products like circuit breakers and panels used to distribute and regulate electrical power.

施耐德把在墨西哥生产的产品中的约75%至80%销往美国，其中包括用于配电和电力调节的断路器和面板等一系列产品。

While foreign direct investment in developing countries fell 9 percent in 2023, the flow of such investment to Mexico surged 21 percent last year, according the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

据联合国贸易和发展会议的数据，尽管发展中国家的外国直接投资2023年下降了9%，但流向墨西哥的此类投资去年激增了21%。

Another economy caught in the shifting tides between the United States and China has been South Korea. Like Mexico, South Korea is subject to lower tariffs because it has a free trade deal with the United States. In December, U.S. imports from South Korea were the highest on record.

另一个受美中贸易变化趋势影响的经济体是韩国。韩国与墨西哥一样，享有美国的低关税待遇，因为韩国与美国签订了自由贸易协定。去年12月，美国从韩国的进口额创下了历史新高。

South Korean firms have also particularly benefited from President Biden’s new climate legislation. The U.S. government is offering tax credits for consumers who buy electric vehicles, but it has set certain limits on sourcing parts of those cars from China.

韩国企业尤其从拜登的新气候法中受益。美国政府为鼓励购买电动汽车向消费者提供税收抵免，但对从中国采购这些汽车的零部件设置了一定的限制。

As major manufacturers of electric vehicle batteries and components, South Korean firms have seized the opportunity to participate in newly expanding U.S. vehicle supply chains. One Korean battery manufacturer, SK On, has invested $2.6 billion in a factory in Georgia and is building new facilities in Georgia, Tennessee and Kentucky in partnership with Hyundai and Ford.

作为电动汽车电池和零部件的主要制造商，韩国企业抓住这个机会，加入到最近正在扩张的美国本土汽车供应链的行列。韩国电池制造商SK On投资26亿美元在佐治亚州建厂，并正在与现代和福特合作，在佐治亚州、田纳西州和肯塔基州建新工厂。

Min Sung, the chief commercial officer of SK On, said that China was getting more restrictive for Korean businesses. Meanwhile, the U.S. constraints on China benefiting from electric vehicle tax credits had given Korean businesses “more space to play.”

SK On的首席商务官成敏（音）表示，中国对韩国企业的限制越来越多。与此同时，美国限制中国从电动汽车税收抵免中受益的做法给了韩国企业“更多发挥作用的空间”。

“In order for business to survive, you always find the market that’s got more potential,” Mr. Sung said.

“为了企业生存，总要去寻找更有潜力的市场，”成敏说。

As major Korean companies like SK, LG, Samsung and Hyundai build new facilities to make products in the United States, that also appears to be increasing U.S. trade with South Korea since companies are importing some materials, machinery and parts from their home countries to supply the new facilities.

随着SK、LG、三星和现代等韩国大公司在美国建新厂生产产品，美国与韩国的贸易似乎也在增加，因为这些韩国公司为供应新设施，正在从本国进口一些材料、机械和零部件。

In December, Korean exports to the United States surpassed Korean exports to China for the first time in 20 years, driven by shipments of vehicles, electric batteries and other parts.

去年12月，在汽车、电池和其他零部件出口的推动下，韩国对美国的出口额20年来首次超过了韩国对中国的出口额。

Mr. Sung agreed that increasing American skepticism of China was pushing the United States and South Korea closer together.

成敏同意这个说法：美国对中国日益增长的怀疑正在将美国与韩国推得更近。

“It’s never been stronger than the last couple of years between two allies,” he said.

“两个盟国之间的关系从未像过去几年这样紧密，”他说。