The Guardian-Russia China and Iran could target UK via Irish backdoor thinktank warns
February 4, 2024 3 min 542 words
这篇报道警告英国面临来自俄罗斯、中国和伊朗通过爱尔兰“后门”的安全威胁，指责都柏林在欧洲防务方面“搭便车”。该报告建议英国加强在北爱尔兰的空军和海军存在，以对抗英国西侧不断增长的俄罗斯威胁。报告强调俄罗斯通过定位水下网络和管道以及派遣战舰构成的“急迫海上威胁”，同时关切俄罗斯在爱尔兰的情报活动和对网络攻击的脆弱性。报告批评中国的技术进步和全球影响也是一个重要问题。然而，对都柏林“搭便车”的指责引起争议，特别是在讨论爱尔兰军事中立和可能加入北约的背景下。该报道还警告如果2025年共和党胜选，英国将面临与日俱增的外部威胁下与不合作且可能敌对的邻国对峙多年。总体而言，这份报告在国际关系和安全问题上提出了严肃的观点，引起人们对英国和爱尔兰防务合作的关注。
Britain faces a “backdoor” threat to its security from a Russian, Chinese and Iranian presence in the Republic of Ireland, according to a report by an influential thinktank that accuses Dublin of “freeloading” when it comes to European defence.
The UK should also expand its air and naval presence in Northern Ireland, to counter a growing Russian threat on the UK’s western flank, according to the Policy Exchange report, which is backed by two former defence secretaries, Michael Fallon and George Robertson.
The UK and Ireland are at risk from an “acute maritime menace” posed by a Russian doctrine of targeting undersea networks and pipelines and the presence of Russian warships, they say in a foreword to the paper.
Concerns about Russian intelligence operations in Ireland and its vulnerability to cyber-attack are also highlighted in the report, which cites what it describes as an “inordinately large Russian diplomatic outfit in Dublin”.
The embassy had 30 members of staff in 2022, which was more than many other European states with which Russia had closer ties at the time.
Other evidence cited included Russian attempts to expand the embassy significantly, a move blocked in 2020 when the Irish government revoked planning permission on the grounds it was “likely to be harmful to the security and defence of the state”.
China is another significant concern due to its rapid technological advancements and global influence.
Meanwhile Ken McCallum, the director general of MI5, has said Iran stands out as the state that “most frequently crosses into terrorism”. UK authorities uncovered at least 10 potential threats last year related to kidnapping or harming UK-based individuals perceived as enemies of the Iranian regime.
It was an “unavoidable fact” that Ireland had “freeloaded” off the investment of others who were part of Nato, said the report, which added that this “home truth” had been admitted last year by the then taoiseach, Micheál Martin, as a discussion about Irish neutrality deepened.
Discussions about neutrality among Ireland’s political classes have sharpened in the era of Russian aggression under Vladimir Putin, the arrival of Ukrainian refugees, incursions by Russian ships that are suspected of mapping underwater cables, and a 2021 ransomware attack by suspected Russian gangs on the health service.
Ireland’s president has rebuked the government for launching a debate about the country’s longstanding military neutrality and the possibility of joining Nato, saying ministers were “playing with fire”.
The report tried to sound an alarm bell about the consequences of Sinn Féin winning Irish elections in 2025.
“If Sinn Féin wins in 2025, the UK is therefore looking at many more years of an uncooperative, and likely hostile, neighbour in the face of growing external threats,” it said. While Sinn Féin had been on the rise in the Republic and now holds the post of first minister in Northern Ireland, it has slumped in polls south of the border.
Fallon and Lord Robertson, a former Nato secretary general, welcomed the fact that Ireland had been reviewing its defence outlook – as Sweden and Finland have also moved away from neutrality – and called on the UK to encourage its neighbour to strengthen defences and build on a UK-Ireland defence agreement signed in 2015.