纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英中国房地产危机尚未触底

The unwavering belief of Chinese home buyers that real estate was a can’t-lose investment propelled the country’s property sector to become the backbone of its economy.

中国的买房者们曾坚定地相信房子是最安全的投资，这种信念曾推动该国房地产行业成为经济的支柱。

But over the last two years, as firms crumbled under the weight of massive debts and sales of new homes plunged, Chinese consumers have demonstrated an equally unshakable belief: Real estate has become a losing investment.

但在过去的两年里，随着房地产商们在巨额债务的重压下崩盘，新房销售骤降，中国的消费者们已展现出一种同样不可动摇的信念：房子已成为赔钱的投资。

This sharp loss of faith in property, the main store of wealth for many Chinese families, is a growing problem for Chinese policymakers who are pulling out all the stops to revive the ailing industry — to very little effect. The troubles of the country’s real estate sector were laid bare on Monday when a Hong Kong court ordered China Evergrande to wind up operations and liquidate the company, which is saddled with over $300 billion in debt.

许多中国家庭财产的主要部分是房子，对房地产的信心快速丧失是中国决策者们面临的一个日益严重的问题，他们正在竭尽全力重振这个陷入困境的行业，但收效甚微。香港一家法院周一下令负债逾两万亿元的中国恒大停盘进入清算过程，这家公司的问题充分暴露了中国房地产行业的困境。

Like the industry it once ruled, Evergrande limped along for two years after defaulting on payments it owed investors. Evergrande, lacking the cash to pay creditors, tried to exude confidence that its apartments remained a sound investment. The market would surely bounce back, as it had during past downturns.

在未能偿还投资者贷款后，恒大以及其曾领军的房地产行业已艰难维持了两年。恒大缺少用于偿债的现金，曾试图对其开发的公寓楼仍是一项稳健投资表现出信心，认为房地产肯定会出现反弹，就像该市场以前在度过了低迷时期之后那样。

But the downturn, already the longest on record, is not only dragging on — it is accelerating.

但这次的房地产衰退已是有记录以来时间最长的，不仅仍在持续，而且还在加速。

In 2023, China’s housing sales fell 6.5 percent. In December alone, sales were down 17.1 percent from a year earlier, according to Dongxing Securities, a Chinese investment bank. Investment for new projects also slowed. Real estate development fell 9.6 percent last year.

中国2023年的房屋销售额同比下降了6.5%。据中国投资银行东兴证券的数据，仅去年12月的月销售额就比去年同期下降了17.1%。新项目的投资也已放缓。去年的房地产开发投资比上年下降了9.6%。

“The market has not touched bottom yet,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at Natixis. “There is still a long way to go.”

“市场尚未触底，”NatixisNatixis亚洲区首席经济学家艾丽西亚·加西亚·耶赫雷罗说。“还有很长的路要走。”

Last year, even as China’s economy was expected to benefit from pent-up consumer demand after the lifting of pandemic restrictions, the property market weighed on growth. Real estate accounts for roughly one-quarter of China’s economy.

去年，就在人们预计中国解除了新冠病毒限制措施后，经济会从被压抑的消费需求中受益时，房地产市场却拖累了经济增长。房地产业约占中国经济产出的25%。

The property sector started to stall after Beijing, worried about a housing bubble and its impact on the financial system, rolled out a series of rules in 2020 aimed at curbing the excessive borrowing of real estate developers. Without easy access to debt, developers struggled to pay off loans and finish building properties that were sold in advance to home buyers.

由于担心房地产泡沫及其对金融体系的影响，中国政府在2020年推出了一系列旨在遏制房地产开发商过度借贷的法规，此后房地产行业开始进入停滞状态。不再能轻松地获得贷款，开发商在偿还现有贷款、完成已卖给购房者的楼盘建设上遇到困难。

Nomura Securities, a Japanese financial services firm, estimates that there are still 20 million units of presold homes waiting to be finished, which would require $450 billion in funding to complete.

据日本金融服务公司野村证券估计，中国仍有2000万套待完工的预售房，这些房的完工将需要逾三万亿元的资金。

Now China has walked back many of those restrictions. Financial regulators are urging banks to lend more to property developers. Last week, Xiao Yuanqi, deputy director of China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration, said the country’s financial institutions had “an inescapable responsibility to provide strong support” to the property sector.

现在，中国已取消了2020年实施的限制中的多条。金融监管者们已敦促银行向房地产开发商提供更多贷款。上周，中国国家金融监督管理总局副局长肖远企表示，对房地产行业“金融业责无旁贷，必须大力支持”。

Banks should not immediately cut off loans to troubled projects, but should find ways to support them by extending time to repay the loans or float additional funds, Mr. Xiao added. Last week, China’s central bank and finance regulator said that it would allow some developers to use bank loans for commercial properties to repay other loans or bonds.

肖远企还说，银行不得对陷入困境的开发项目马上断贷，而是要通过延长还款时间、提供新增贷款等方法来加大支持力度。中国央行和金融监管机构已在上周表示，将允许一些开发商把从银行获得的经营性物业贷款用于偿还其他房地产贷款或债券。

Since 2021, more than 50 Chinese property firms have defaulted on debt, including the two firms that once dominated the country’s housing market: Evergrande and Country Garden. Once Evergrande’s main rival for industry leadership, Country Garden effectively defaulted in October. The company’s situation has worsened because its sales have collapsed.

2021年以来，已有50多家中国房地产企业出现了债务违约，包括曾经主导中国房地产市场的两家企业：恒大和碧桂园。碧桂园曾是与恒大竞争行业领导地位的主要对手，实际上已在去年10月出现了债务违约。销售额大幅下滑已使公司的处境更加恶化。

Country Garden said presales of unfinished apartments, an important indicator of future revenue, fell for a ninth straight month in December, to 6.91 billion yuan, or $962 million. That was down 69 percent from a year earlier. In the second half of 2023, presales were down 74 percent from a year earlier.

碧桂园表示，去年12月的未完工公寓预售额为69.1亿元人民币，与上年同期相比下降了69%。这个公司未来收入的重要指标已连续九个月下降。公司2023年下半年的预售额与上年同期相比下降了74%。

In a research note this month, Larry Hu, chief China economist for Macquarie Group, said the property slump was “self-fulfilling,” because the debt woes of property developers kept buyers away and pressured home sales, while the dearth of new business only deepened the financial problems of those firms.

麦格理集团中国经济研究部主管胡伟俊(Larry Hu)在本月的一份研究报告中表示，房地产市场低迷带有“自我应验的”性质，因为房地产开发商的债务困境让买家望而却步，给房屋销售带来压力，而新业务的缺乏进一步加深了这些开发商的财务问题。

“The key thing to watch in 2024 is if and when the central government would step in and take the main responsibility to stop the contagion,” Mr. Hu wrote. He said the Chinese authorities could bail out property developers, similar to how the U.S. government stepped in during the global financial crisis with the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP.

“2024年需要留意的一个关键是，中央政府是否以及何时会介入，承担起阻止低迷蔓延的主要责任，”胡伟俊写道。他说，中国当局能为房地产开发商提供救助，就像美国政府在全球金融危机期间介入，推出了问题资产救助计划（简称TARP）那样。

When China moved to cool real estate several years ago, one step it took was to limit speculators from buying homes. Home buyers were required to make large down payments, discouraging people from buying additional properties.

中国几年前开始给房地产降温时采取的措施之一是限制投机者买房。购房者被要求支付大笔首付，这阻止了人们购买更多的房产。

Suzhou, a city in eastern China, lifted most of its home purchase restrictions, removing limits on the number of homes one person could purchase and waiving any residency requirements, state-run media reported on Tuesday.

据中国官媒周二报道，中国东部城市苏州已取消了大部分购房限制，取消了个人可购买的房屋数量限制，不再要求购房者有当地户籍。

But even easing the rules has not helped to lift the market. China’s outstanding mortgage loans fell 1.6 percent last year over 2022, a year when businesses and residents in many cities were still contending with pandemic lockdowns. This, according to the Chinese business magazine Caixin, was the first decline in almost two decades. Mortgages had been growing by more than 10 percent annually until 2021.

即便购房限制放宽也无助于提振房地产市场。中国去年的未偿还房贷总额与2022年相比下降了1.6%，而2022年时，许多城市的企业和居民仍在应对疫情防控措施。据中国商业杂志财新报道，这是未偿还房贷总额近20年来的首次下降。抵押贷款数额曾一直以每年超过10%的速度增长，直到2021年。

A lingering cause for concern for some potential home buyers remains the large quantities of unfinished, presold apartments. For years, home buyers would agree to purchase new apartments and start paying a mortgage years before the units were built. It caused an uproar when some property developers suspended construction on presold apartments because they lacked the funds to pay contractors and builders.

对一些潜在的购房者来说，一个挥之不去的担忧仍是大量未完工的预售公寓。多年来，购房者会同意购买新公寓，并在楼盘建成的好几年前开始还房贷。一些房地产开发商因缺乏资金支付承包商和建筑商导致预售公寓的建设暂停，曾引起了轩然大波。

While the government has pushed firms to finish construction on presold apartments, there are still many projects that are not complete.

尽管政府已要求企业完成预售公寓的建设，但仍有许多项目尚未完成。

Nydia Duan, a 19-year-old college student in Zhuhai, in the southern province of Guangdong, said her family offered to buy her a home when she turned 18, but she resisted because she was concerned in part about buying an unfinished apartment.

广东省珠海市19岁的大学生妮蒂亚·段（音）说，她家人曾提出在她18岁时给她买一套房子，但她拒绝了，部分原因是不想购买一套尚未盖好的房子。

While housing prices have plummeted in recent years, Ms. Duan said that she was generally pessimistic about the outlook for real estate, and that she preferred to keep her family’s money in cash.

虽然房价近年来已在暴跌，但段女士说，她对房地产前景总体上持悲观的态度，她更愿意将家里的钱存为现金。

“I’m still reluctant to buy one,” she said. “I’ll consider it when the property market is more stable.”

“还是不太敢买房，”她说。“等到楼市稳定些，我会考虑买的。”