纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英机会背后的隐忧从合肥模式看中国经济现状

Ultramodern factories churn out electric cars and solar panels in Hefei, an industrial center in the heart of central China. Broad avenues link office towers and landscaped parks. Subway lines open at a brisk pace.

工业城市合肥位于中国中部心脏地带，这里有生产电动汽车和太阳能电池板的超现代化工厂，将办公楼和景观公园连接起来的宽阔大道，还有快速落成开通的地铁线路。

Yet at Hefei’s market for construction materials, which fills 10 city blocks, local merchants are gloomy. Wu Junlin, a vendor of doors, has closed two of his three stores and laid off all but one of his dozen employees.

然而，在占据了合肥十个街区的建筑材料市场，当地商户们却很悲观。房门经销商吴俊林（音）已关闭了三个商店中的两个，解雇了十几名员工，只留下一名雇员。

“I have been doing this for 20 years — after all these years, this year is the worst,” he said, sitting in his last store with no customers in sight.

“我干这行已经20年了，这么多年里，今年是最糟糕的，”他坐在自己仅剩的那家店里等待客户光临时说。

Nowhere better showcases the opportunities and vulnerabilities of China’s economy than Hefei.

没有什么地方比合肥更能体现中国经济的机会和脆弱性了。

Government-directed growth in industries like electric vehicles and solar panels has turned China into the world’s export superpower, making Hefei a model for other Chinese cities. But a nationwide decline in real estate has devastated the finances of millions of families and small businesses — including in Hefei.

政府主导的电动汽车和太阳能电池板等行业的增长使中国成为世界的超级出口大国，也使合肥成为中国其他城市的榜样。但全国范围内的房地产行业衰落破坏了数以百万计家庭和小企业的财务状况，合肥也不例外。

Hefei and nearby towns have become an E.V. manufacturing hub, with overall car production nearly tripling since 2019 and now exceeding Michigan’s. Hefei’s industrial policies have been so successful in nurturing technology manufacturers that the country’s central government has embraced tenets of what is known as the Hefei model.

合肥及周边的城镇成了电动汽车制造中心，这里的汽车总产量自2019年以来几乎增长了两倍，现已超过密歇根州的汽车总产量。合肥的产业政策在扶植技术制造商方面非常成功，以至于中国的中央政府将所谓“合肥模式”奉为信条。

Now so many cities are subsidizing electric vehicle factories that the industry faces severe overcapacity and heavy losses.

现在，很多城市都在为电动汽车工厂提供补贴，这导致该行业产能严重过剩，亏损严重。

“Some localities and enterprises are still blindly launching and duplicating new energy vehicle projects — these require our great attention, and effective measures should be taken to solve them,” Xin Guobin, a vice minister at China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at a news briefing last week.

“部分地方和企业还存在盲目上马、重复建设新能源汽车项目情况，这些都需要引起我们高度重视，要采取有力措施来加以解决，”工业和信息化部副部长辛国斌在上周的新闻发布会上说。

The Hefei model consists of using government money to buy newly issued shares in manufacturers and start-ups that need cash. Officials also arrange loans with attractive interest rates from state-controlled banks to finance new factories.

合肥模式包括使用政府资金购买需要现金的制造商和初创企业新发行的股票。官员们还从国有银行安排利率优惠的贷款，为新工厂提供资金。

Over two decades, Hefei has been transformed by the municipal government’s bets on companies like BOE Technology Group, a flat-panel display manufacturer, and Nio, a maker of electric cars. When Nio nearly ran out of cash in 2020, the Hefei government injected $1 billion for a 24 percent stake and state-controlled lenders pumped in another $1.6 billion.

由于市政府押注平板显示器制造商京东方科技集团和电动汽车制造商蔚来汽车等公司，合肥在20年时间里发生了翻天覆地的变化。2020年，在蔚来汽车几乎将现金耗尽的时候，合肥市政府为其注资70亿元人民币，拿到了公司24%的股份，国有银行还另外向其授信104亿元。

A provincial capital in a previously impoverished farming area, Hefei has leaped up the income rankings of Chinese cities. Local government cadres, urban economists and institutional investors visit Hefei to study its methods.

合肥是安徽的省会，这个以农业为主的省份曾经属于贫困地区，如今，合肥已在中国城市收入排名中跃居前列。地方政府干部、城市经济学家和机构投资人纷纷前往合肥考察学习。

Hefei has an $86 billion municipal holding company that has put money into struggling but technologically advanced companies. The holding company, the fourth-largest of its kind in China, buys company shares on the cheap when few other investors want them.

合肥拥有总资产6135.84亿元的市建设投资控股（集团）有限公司，它向陷入困境但拥有先进技术的公司投资。合肥城投是中国同类公司中的第四大公司，它在其他投资者还不愿出手的时候以低价购买公司的股票。

These companies sometimes recover, as BOE Technology and Nio did after Hefei’s investments. The city then provides incentives for these companies’ suppliers and customers to relocate to Hefei as well, said Li Bo, an assistant professor at the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University.

这些公司有时能够复苏，就像合肥投资后的京东方科技和蔚来汽车那样。那之后，合肥市还会向这些公司的供应商和客户提供激励措施，鼓励它们迁到合肥来，北京大学光华管理学院的助理教授李波说。

“Hefei has a clear understanding of local industries — the government-led investment fund is tailored to companies’ needs,” she said.

“合肥对当地产业有清晰的了解，政府主导的投资基金是根据企业的需求量身定制的，”她说。

Hefei sits atop several industrial supply chains. A fifth of the world’s liquid crystal displays for consumer electronics are made in Hefei. So are many Lenovo laptop and notebook computers. Hefei produces a tenth of China’s home appliances. The city government has provided $2 billion of the $2.5 billion needed to build China’s first factories for an advanced kind of computer memory chips.

合肥位于多个产业供应链的顶端。全球20%的消费电子液晶显示器是在合肥制造的。许多联想笔记本电脑和平板电脑也在合肥制造。合肥生产了中国10%的家电产品。合肥市政府为建设中国第一家先进计算机存储芯片工厂所需的180亿元提供了144亿元。

Hefei’s output of electric cars quadrupled last year, and that will soar further this year as Volkswagen ramps up production at a giant new factory. An electric car battery manufacturer partly owned by VW, the Gotion High-tech Company, has also built a factory in Hefei.

去年，合肥的电动汽车产量翻了四倍，随着大众汽车的一家巨型新工厂提高产量，合肥今年的电动汽车产量还将进一步飙升。大众汽车部分控股的电动汽车电池制造商国轩高科公司也在合肥建了一家工厂。

Other Chinese carmakers are following. BYD, which is vying with Tesla to be the world’s largest maker of electric cars, has nearly completed a $5.6 billion factory complex with a planned capacity of 1.3 million cars a year.

其他中国汽车制造商也紧随其后。比亚迪正在与特斯拉争夺全球最大电动汽车制造商地位，它在合肥建的工厂园区耗资150亿元、计划每年生产130万辆汽车，目前即将完工。

Hefei owes much of its success to a top engineering university, in much the same way that Carnegie Mellon University has fostered the tech renaissance of Pittsburgh. Most of China’s top universities are in Beijing or Shanghai. But leaders at the University of Science and Technology of China relocated the institution from Beijing during the chaos of Mao’s Cultural Revolution, and it ended up in relatively tranquil Hefei in 1970.

合肥的成功很大程度上归功于该市的一所顶尖工程大学，就像卡内基梅隆大学促进了匹兹堡的科技复兴一样。中国大多数顶尖大学在北京或上海。但在毛泽东领导的“文化大革命”的动乱时期，中国科学技术大学的领导人将学校迁出北京，最终于1970年迁至相对平静的合肥。

In 2005, a new municipal leader in Hefei, Sun Jinlong, pioneered the city’s focus on tech manufacturing. BOE Technology was mainly in Beijing then but struggling financially. The city persuaded the company to build factories in Hefei, offering more than $1 billion in investment and loans.

2005年，合肥市新任市委书记孙金龙提出将合肥的重点放在发展科技制造上。京东方当时的生产主要在北京，但财务状况不佳。市政府说服了京东方在合肥建厂，并帮助其筹集了100亿元的投资和贷款。

BOE Technology’s later company statements show that from 2011 through 2016, it collected another $250 million in direct subsidies from the city. BOE Technology is now one of the world’s largest makers of flat-panel displays.

京东方在后来的公司报告中显示，从2011年到2016年，公司还从合肥市政府获得了18亿元的直接补贴。京东方现已成为全球最大的平板显示器制造商之一。

Hefei had a powerful ally in promoting its success. Li Keqiang, China’s second-highest official and premier until his retirement nearly a year ago, grew up in Hefei.

合肥还曾有一名推动其成功的强大盟友。近一年前从总理职位上退下来的李克强曾是中国第二号高官，他是在合肥长大的。

During a trip to the city in 2015, Mr. Li promoted his “Made in China 2025” plan. That plan called for replacing many imported advanced manufactured goods with Chinese production by 2025, using industrial policies that echoed Hefei’s. Mr. Li died in October.

李克强2015年访问合肥时宣传过他的《中国制造2025》方案。该方案要求中国到2025年时用国产品取代许多进口的先进制成品，该方案采用的产业政策与合肥的政策相呼应。李克强于去年10月去世。

Hefei still faces challenges. Automakers have had trouble persuading executives and engineers to leave the glitter of Shanghai or Beijing for quieter lives in Hefei, despite the low cost of living. BOE Technology has kept its headquarters in Beijing.

合肥仍面临一些挑战。虽然那里的生活成本较低，但汽车制造商难以说服高管和工程师离开上海或北京的繁华，来合肥过更安静的生活。京东方的总部仍在北京。

But Hefei’s biggest problem lies in housing.

但合肥最大的问题是房地产。

Until China’s housing crisis reached Hefei two years ago, construction and real estate development were slightly bigger than manufacturing in the city. Apartment buildings, office towers and hotels loom over small farms left from the city’s recent agricultural past.

中国的房地产危机两年前波及合肥，在此之前，该市的建筑和房地产开发行业的规模略大于制造业。公寓楼、办公楼和酒店高耸在这座不久前还以农业为主的城市遗留下来的农田上。

That dependence on construction is hurting Hefei now.

这种对建筑业的依赖现在正在给合肥造成伤害。

According to the China Index Academy, a property market data provider, the number of new apartments sold each month in Hefei has plummeted. By November, sales were down 45 percent from a year earlier.

房地产市场数据提供商中指研究院的数据显示，合肥的月销售新房数量已大幅下降。截至11月，销售额与上年同期相比下降了45%。

The nosedive in sales is crippling the ability of debt-laden real estate developers to finance new projects. The total floor area of new projects last year plummeted 57 percent from 2022.

房地产销售的急剧下降严重损害了负债累累的房地产开发商们为新项目融资的能力。去年的新项目总建筑面积较2022年锐减57%。

As developers run out of money, they buy fewer land leases from the government. Sales of these leases, the cornerstone of local government budgets in China, typically cover half of Hefei’s municipal spending. Lease sales fell 38 percent in Hefei last year, imperiling government programs.

随着房地产开发商的资金耗尽，他们从政府购买土地租赁合同的数量减少。销售土地租赁合同是中国地方政府预算的主要来源，通常占合肥市市政支出的一半。去年，合肥的土地租赁合同销售额下降了38%，让政府支持的项目陷入危险。

Small businesses say that the local government, previously a big customer, has stopped placing orders.

小企业主们表示，地方政府以前是他们的大客户，现已停止下订单。

“The government is out of money — emptied out,” said Tao Yingcheng, the owner of a flooring business in Hefei.

“政府没钱了，腰包掏空了，”合肥一家地板企业的老板陶英成（音）说。

Some local workers also complain that they lack the skills to compete for jobs. Companies like Nio and Volkswagen rely increasingly on robots and other automation tools, and hire graduates from the best universities elsewhere.

一些本地的工人也抱怨他们缺乏竞争工作岗位的技能。蔚来和大众等公司越来越多地依赖机器人和其他自动化工具，并雇佣其他地方最好大学的毕业生。

“The current employment environment is not very good,” said Xu Mingyi, a Hefei resident who studied computer programming and still has not been able to find work in his field. He is working instead as a ride-hail driver. “These companies in Hefei need talents such that ordinary people hardly meet the requirements.”

“现在的就业环境不太好，”合肥居民徐明义（音）说，他学的是计算机编程，但至今仍未找到本专业的工作，目前靠当网约车司机谋生。“合肥这些企业需要的人才条件，普通人很难满足。”