纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英对中国经济前景悲观香港股市持续下跌
January 18, 2024 3 min 450 words
这篇报道描绘了中国经济前景悲观，尤其在香港股市持续下跌的情况下更加显著。尽管中国总理李强在达沃斯强调中国市场是机遇而非风险，但实际股市表现却并不乐观。香港股市去年暴跌14%，今年更是一再下跌，且中国的经济数据公布后引发抛售。 报道指出，中国正经历重大变革，试图减少对房地产和建筑业的依赖，同时降低借贷依赖。然而，放宽“零Covid”政策后，并未出现预期的消费热潮。人口减少和老龄化也给经济带来了额外的压力。尽管中国宣布2023年经济增速为5.2%，但分析指出复苏依然不稳固。 香港股市的暴跌影响了许多中国大公司，尤其是房地产和消费品行业。在这种背景下，投资者原本期望中国通过刺激经济的方式提振市场，但政策制定者表示不同意采用过去的大规模刺激手段。 整体而言，这篇报道准确呈现了当前中国经济面临的挑战，以及投资者对中国经济前景的担忧。
China’s No. 2 leader, Li Qiang, traveled to Switzerland with a message for the titans of the business world gathered for the World Economic Forum.
中国二号领导人李强前往瑞士，向参加世界经济论坛的商界巨头们传达了一个信息。
But there’s a different sentiment about China playing out in the stock market, and it’s not so optimistic. The worries over China’s economy have been visible for months in Hong Kong, where stocks plunged 14 percent last year, the fourth consecutive annual decline.
但是，股市上却出现了对中国的另一种情绪，而且并不那么乐观。对中国经济的担忧在香港已经持续了几个月，去年香港股市暴跌14%，这是连续第四年下跌。
The new year hasn’t offered any relief, either, and economic data released by China on Wednesday prompted another sell-off.
新的一年没有带来任何缓解，中国周三公布的经济数据再次引发一轮抛售。
In Hong Kong, where many of China’s biggest companies trade, stocks fell 3.7 percent on Wednesday. So far this year, the market has lost one-tenth of its value. In China’s financial capital of Shanghai, stocks dropped 2.1 percent, extending this year’s decline to nearly 5 percent.
周三，香港股市下跌3.7%，中国的许多大公司都在那里上市。今年到目前为止，香港股市已经损失了十分之一的市值。在中国的金融之都上海，股市下跌2.1%，使今年的跌幅扩大到近5%。
Even as China said its economy grew by 5.2 percent in 2023, which is high by most standards, it is undergoing significant change. China’s leaders are trying to wean the country off property and construction, which have long been pillars of growth, while also reducing reliance on borrowed money.
尽管中国称其经济在2023年增长了5.2%，以大多数标准而言是很高的，但它正在经历重大变化。中国领导人正试图让国家不再依赖长期以来作为经济增长支柱的房地产和建筑业，同时减少对借贷的依赖。
An anticipated boom in consumption after China reversed its “zero Covid” policy in late 2022 hasn’t played out, either.
中国在2022年底放弃“清零”政策后，预期的消费热潮并没有出现。
A shrinking population and aging work force are adding to the headwinds. China on Wednesday also said its population had shrunk by two million people and was aging rapidly, putting further strain on its already weak health care system and underfunded state pension.
人口减少和劳动力老龄化更是雪上加霜。中国周三还表示，人口减少了200万，老龄化速度很快，这给本已薄弱的医疗体系和资金不足的国家养老金带来了进一步的压力。
While China’s economy has shown some slight improvement recently, “the recovery clearly remains shaky,” economists at Capital Economics wrote in a report.
凯投宏观的经济学家在报告中写道，尽管中国经济最近出现了一些小幅改善，但“复苏显然仍不稳固”。
Real estate and consumer companies were among the worst hit by the sell-off in Hong Kong, which for years has been a gateway for foreign investors wanting to put money into mainland China. Longfor Group, a Chinese property developer, fell 6.8 percent, while Meituan, the Chinese delivery service, dropped 7 percent.
多年来，香港一直是外国投资者将资金投入中国大陆的门户，房地产和消费品公司都在受香港股市抛售影响最严重的行业之列。中国房地产开发商龙湖集团股价下跌6.8%，中国外卖服务公司美团股价下跌7%。
Stocks in the United States this year so far are flat, while share prices in Japan are surging, up over 6 percent.
今年到目前为止，美国股市表现平平，而日本股市却在飙升，涨幅超过6%。
Many investors have been looking to China to fire up its economy with a big stimulus as it has in the past during economic stress, but policymakers have said this time is different.
许多投资者一直期待中国像以往那样，在经济紧张时期，通过大规模刺激措施来提振经济，但政策制定者表示，这次有所不同。
Mr. Li reiterated this reluctance in his address at the World Economic Forum. “We have held to avoiding major stimulus,” he said, “and have not sought short-term growth at the price of accumulating long-term risks.”
李强在世界经济论坛的讲话中重申了这一立场。“我们坚持不搞强刺激，没有以积累长期风险为代价换取短期增长，”他说。