纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英中国去年经济增速破5但债务通缩等问题仍为隐忧
January 17, 2024 3 min 584 words
这篇报道描绘了中国去年经济增长的表面亮点，但也深刻揭示了一系列潜在问题。作者指出，尽管中国经济增速达到5.2%，但债务问题、通缩等仍然存在隐忧。汽车销售的增长主要依赖于大幅折扣，而餐饮和旅游行业也受到消费者选择更便宜选项的影响。长期来看，高债务、房地产危机以及人口老龄化等问题可能会拖累中国经济。 有关西方经济学家对中国未来增长的担忧，尤其是对长期停滞的担忧，表明中国面临复杂的经济挑战。债务水平高企，而房地产市场的不确定性进一步加剧了投资者的忧虑。报道还提到了一些经济学家对中国社会保障网络减弱以及通货紧缩可能对家庭和企业带来的风险的担忧。 总体而言，这篇报道在积极的增长数据中发现了许多潜在的风险，强调了中国经济面临的复杂性和挑战。这对于观察中国未来经济走势的人们提供了深入思考的角度。
Car production set records in China last year. Restaurants and hotels were increasingly full. Construction of new factories surged.
中国去年的汽车产量创下了历史纪录。餐馆和酒店的客人越来越多。新工厂的建设出现激增。
Yet China’s economic strengths conceal weaknesses. Deep discounts helped drive car sales, particularly for electric cars. Diners and travelers chose cheaper dishes and less expensive hotels. Many factories ran at half capacity or less because of weak demand inside China, and are working to export more to make up for it.
然而，中国的经济优势掩盖了不足之处。大幅折扣推动了汽车销量，尤其是新能源汽车。食客和游客选择的是更平价的餐食和酒店。由于内需疲软，许多工厂的产能被削减至一半或更少，并且正在通过努力增加出口来弥补损失。
China’s economy grew 5.2 percent last year as it rebounded from nearly three years of stringent “zero Covid” pandemic control measures, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics announced on Wednesday. During the final three months of the year, output rose at an annual pace of 4.1 percent.
中国国家统计局周三宣布，经过近三年严格的“新冠清零”防疫措施，中国经济已经反弹，去年增长了5.2%，其中最后三个月的总产值年增长率为4.1%。
Longer term, China’s growth is slowing. High debt, a housing crisis that has undermined confidence, and a shrinking and aging work force are weighing on output.
从长远来看，中国的增长正在放缓。高额债务、削弱信心的房地产危机以及不断萎缩和老龄化的劳动力人口都在拖累经济产出。
Western economists predict that growth will be 4.5 percent or less this year, the result not of a cyclical downturn but of a grinding decline that may endure for many years, what economists label secular stagnation. Prices are gradually falling to an extent that China hadn’t experienced since the jolt inflicted by the global financial crisis in 2009, a phenomenon known as deflation that could bankrupt heavily indebted families and companies.
西方经济学家预测中国今年的增长率将在4.5%或更低，这反映的并非周期性下行，而是一场可能持续多年的缓慢衰落，经济学家称之为长期停滞。物价正在逐渐下跌至中国自2009年全球金融危机以来的最低水平，这种通货紧缩现象可能令负债累累的家庭和企业陷入破产境地。
“Secular stagnation — basically a chronic excess of savings leading to slow growth, deflation, asset bubbles and financial strains — has moved from the Western Hemisphere to China,” Lawrence H. Summers, a former secretary of the Treasury, said in an interview last week in Shanghai.
“长期停滞——基本就是长期储蓄过剩导致的增长缓慢、通货紧缩、资产泡沫和金融压力——已从西半球转移到了中国，”美国前财政部长劳伦斯·H·萨默斯上周在上海接受采访时表示。
Heavy debts, and the steep interest payments they require, are limiting China’s room to maneuver. Ever since the financial crisis, the central and local governments have responded to economic weakness by spending more for new roads and other infrastructure and by lending more to manufacturers in favored industries. That has juiced growth but resulted in ever-rising debt, particularly at the local level.
沉重的债务以及随之而来的高额利息限制了中国扭转困局的空间。自财政危机以来，中央和地方政府为应对经济疲软而采取的措施是加大对新建道路和其他基础设施的支持，并向重点扶持行业的制造商提供更多贷款。这促进了经济增长，但也导致债务不断上升，特别是地方债务。
Last month, the credit rating agency Moody’s issued a negative outlook for the Chinese government’s financial health. Another agency, DBRS Morningstar in Chicago, downgraded in November its rating for China’s government debt.
上个月，信用评级机构穆迪对中国政府的财务健康状况发布了负面评级展望。另一家位于芝加哥的信用评级机构DBRS晨星公司也于11月下调了对中国政府债务的评级。
Rohini Malkani, a senior vice president of sovereign debt ratings at DBRS Morningstar, expressed concern that overall debt in the Chinese economy now exceeds three years’ economic output — a higher level than in industrialized countries like the United States.
DBRS晨星公司主权债务评级部门的高级副总裁罗希尼·马尔卡尼对中国经济总体债务高于三年经济产出的现状表示担忧，这一水平比美国等工业化发达国家还要高。
“Over the past 15 years, it has more than doubled” compared even with the country’s fast-growing output, she said.
她说，哪怕是与中国快速增长的产出相比，“这一数字在过去15年间也翻了不止一倍。”
Zhang Jun, dean of the School of Economics at Fudan University in Shanghai, said in a commentary distributed by the East Is Read newsletter in Beijing that the Chinese government was becoming less willing to stimulate the economy by borrowing and spending for infrastructure. As a result, he wrote, “I increasingly feel that the growth slowdown has a certain inevitability.”
在北京的East Is Read通讯发布的一篇评论中，上海复旦大学经济学院院长张军表示，中国政府已经变得不那么愿意通过借贷和基础设施支出来刺激经济，“我越来越觉得，我们看到的增速放缓有一定的必然性。”
The economy’s performance last year was roughly in line with a consensus of 5.3 percent in a survey of economists last week by Caixin, a Chinese news organization. The economy also met the government’s target, set last March, that growth would be about 5 percent. Premier Li Qiang said on Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the increase last year had been “around 5.2 percent.”