纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英李强称中国2023年经济增长52

China’s second-highest leader said Tuesday that his country’s economy had grown “around 5.2 percent” last year, providing an unusual early glimpse of important economic data a day before its official release.

中国二号领导人周二表示，中国经济去年增长了“5.2%左右”，在正式发布数据的前一天，非同寻常地将这个重要经济数据提前告诉了外界。

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Premier Li Qiang, the second-highest official in China after Xi Jinping, said that China had beat its target last year of economic growth of about 5 percent. He also insisted that China had managed to expand the economy without using risky or short-term measures, like large spending or credit programs.

中国国务院总理李强在瑞士达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛上称，中国去年的经济增长率高于年初确定的5%左右的目标。李强是地位仅次于习近平的中国二号人物。他还坚称，经济增长是在没有使用大规模支出或信贷项目等高风险或短期措施的情况下实现的。

“In the course of economic development, we have held to avoiding major stimulus, and have not sought short-term growth at the price of accumulating long-term risks,” he said.

“在推动经济发展的过程中，我们坚持不搞强刺激，没有以积累长期风险为代价换取短期增长，”他说。

Mr. Li’s comments were consistent with publicly available estimates of economic growth for last year. China will announce the official number in Beijing on Wednesday.

李强的说法与可公开得到的去年经济增长预测一致。官方数字将于周三在北京公布。

Caixin, a Chinese news organization, said a survey of economists last week concluded that the economy probably grew 5.3 percent.

中国新闻机构财新表示，上周对经济学家所做调查的结论是，中国经济去年可能增长了5.3%。

The timing of official economic reports has been a sensitive subject in China ever since the government delayed the release of economic growth information by a week in October 2022. The extra time allowed the Communist Party to finish an important national congress before lackluster statistics were distributed to the public.

2022年10月，中国政府曾将经济增长信息的发布推迟了一周，之后，官方经济数据的发布时间问题就一直是个敏感话题。推迟发布使得中共能在乏善可陈的统计数据公布之前就举办了重要的“二十大”。

Stephen Roach, a Yale economist and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, said that Mr. Li’s mention of an estimate of economic growth was a far less serious digression from any global norms than the 2022 delay. “There are enough questions about the credibility of China’s numbers that I don’t think this is a serious breach of our confidence in those numbers,” he said.

耶鲁大学经济学家、摩根士丹利亚洲区前主席斯蒂芬·罗奇称，与2022年推迟发布数据的做法相比，李强提前给出经济增长估值的做法偏离全球规范的严重性小得多。“人们对中国数据的可信度有足够多的疑问，我不认为提前发布给我们对这些数据的信心带来了严重影响，”他说。

As Mr. Li mentioned, China has been wary of rapidly ramping up economic stimulus to reverse a broad slowdown. China has been particularly wary of increases in central government spending. It even trimmed the country’s social safety net last year by enacting a smaller increase in government payments to seniors and by halting a large unemployment insurance program.

如李强所说，中国一直对迅速加大经济刺激力度以扭转普遍放缓的趋势持谨慎态度，尤其是对中央政府支出的增加。中国去年甚至为此削弱了本国的社会安全网，它减少了政府养老金的增幅，并停止了一个大的失业保险项目。

But in recent months China’s central government has authorized extra bond sales, which are a form of borrowing, and has raised its ceiling for deficit spending. Beijing said the bonds were necessary partly to provide extra money in response to severe flooding last summer. China’s central bank has also taken steps to indirectly provide extra credit to local governments this winter.

但近几个月来，中央政府已授权发行额外的债券（这是一种借贷形式），提高了赤字支出的上限。北京方面表示，部分因为应对去年夏天严重的洪水需要额外资金，有必要发行这些债券。今年冬天，中国央行也已采取措施，间接地向地方政府提供额外信贷。

China faces a sharp downturn in real estate and an alarming loss of consumer confidence. Mr. Li used much of his speech at Davos to present China as an attractive market for global companies and as a country with strong prospects for economic growth. He pointed out that China, which is the world’s largest exporter, has what he described as the world’s broadest array of industries.

中国面临着房地产业的急剧下滑，消费者信心以惊人的速度下降等问题。李强在达沃斯的讲话中用了大部分时间来展示中国仍是对跨国公司有吸引力的市场，也是有强劲经济增长前景的国家。他指出，中国是世界上最大的出口国，拥有其所谓的世界上最广泛的产业。