纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英中国未能左右台湾大选接下来会发生什么

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has tied his country’s great power status to a singular promise: unifying the motherland with Taiwan, which the Chinese Communist Party sees as sacred, lost territory. A few weeks ago, Mr. Xi called this a “historical inevitability.”

中国领导人习近平已将中国的强国愿景与让台湾与祖国统一这个独一无二的承诺绑在了一起。中国共产党视台湾为神圣不可分割的失落领土。习近平曾在几周前宣称统一“是历史必然”。

But Taiwan’s election on Saturday, handing the presidency to a party that promotes the island’s separate identity for the third time in a row, confirmed that this boisterous democracy has moved even further away from China and its dream of unification.

但在周六举行的台湾大选上，一个主张台湾独立身份认同的政党连续第三次赢得总统任期，证明这个喧闹的民主政体与中国及其统一梦想的距离已更加遥远。

After a campaign of festival-like rallies, where huge crowds shouted, danced and waved matching flags, Taiwan’s voters ignored China’s warnings that a vote for the Democratic Progressive Party was a vote for war. They made that choice anyway.

大批人群在节日般热闹的集会上叫喊、舞动，挥着各自阵营的旗帜，随后的选举结果显示，台湾选民并没有理睬中国的警告，即投票给民进党就是选择战争。他们还是做出了这样的选择。

Lai Ching-te, a former doctor and the current vice president, who Beijing sees as a staunch separatist, will be Taiwan’s next leader. It’s an act of self-governed defiance that proved what many already knew: Beijing’s arm-twisting of Taiwan — economically and with military harassment at sea and in the air — has only strengthened the island’s desire to protect its de facto independence and move beyond China’s giant shadow.

曾做过医生的现任副总统赖清德将成为台湾的下任领导人，北京视其为坚定的独派。台湾的自发性反抗证明了许多人都已看透之事：北京对台湾的施压——包括经济制裁以及海空两面的军事袭扰——只会强化台湾保卫其独立现状并要摆脱中国巨大阴影的意愿。

“The more hard-line, tougher approach hasn’t worked,” said Susan Shirk, a research professor at the University of California, San Diego, and the author of “Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise.” “That’s the reality of Taiwanese politics.”

“更坚决、更强硬的姿态并没有奏效。这就是台湾政治的现实。”加州大学圣地亚哥分校研究教授谢淑丽(Susan Shirk)说，她是《贪功致败：中国如何扰乱了自己的和平崛起》(Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise)一书的作者。

That evolution, cultural and political, comes with risks. Mr. Lai’s victory forces Mr. Xi to face a lack of progress. And while China’s full response will play out over months or years, China’s Taiwan affairs office said Saturday night that the election cannot change the direction of cross-strait relations, effectively ensuring that the dynamic of brinkmanship and stress will continue and most likely intensify.

这种文化和政治上的变革带来了风险。赖清德的胜选让习近平不得不面对统一大业停滞不前的现实。中国的全面回应需在未来数月乃至数年内才能展开，国台办周六晚间表示，这场选举不会改变两岸关系的总体方向，基本上确保了目前的边缘政策和施压态势将会持续下去，并且很有可能会加剧。

China and the United States have made Taiwan a test of competing sensitivities and visions. To Beijing, the island is a remnant of its civil war that the United States has no business meddling with. To Washington, it is the first line of defense for global stability, a democracy of 23 million people and the microprocessor factory for the world.

是中美让台湾变成了一场关乎敏锐和远见的考验。对北京来说，台湾问题是国共内战的遗留问题，美国无权干涉。对华盛顿而言，台湾则是捍卫全球稳定、惠泽2300万人口的民主制度以及全球微处理器工厂的第一道防线。

The gargantuan stakes add gravity to every word or policy that Mr. Lai or his party might deliver now and after his inauguration in May. With Taiwan’s sense of self and China’s expectations in conflict, Mr. Xi is not expected to sit idly by.

利害攸关之下，赖清德或民进党现在以及5月他就职后发表的每一句讲话、每一条政策都变得更加要紧。当台湾的自主性和中国的愿景发生冲突，习近平恐怕不会袖手旁观。

Before the election, in editorials and official comments, Chinese officials painted Mr. Lai as a villain, calling him a stubborn “Taiwan independence worker,” a “destroyer of cross-strait peace” and potentially the “creator of a dangerous war.”

中国官员在大选前发表的社论和官方声明中将赖清德描绘成一个反派，称他是顽固的“台独工作者”，是“两岸和平破坏者”，甚至还可能是“台海兵凶战危制造者”。

During the campaign, Mr. Lai, 64, a veteran politician respected by supporters for his quiet determination, said that Taiwan did not need formal independence. In a news conference after his victory, he said he would seek a balanced approach to cross-strait relations including “cooperation with China,” following the path of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen.

作为一名以沉着决断而广受支持者尊重的资深政治人物，现年64岁的赖清德曾在竞选期间宣称台湾没有正式独立的必要。在胜选后的新闻发布会上，他称自己将遵循前任蔡英文的路线，寻求实现两岸关系的平衡，包括“跟中国交流合作”。

But there is little chance of China changing its opinion.

但中国不太可能扭转态度。

“Lai Ching-te is an impulsive and politically biased figure, so we cannot rule out the possibility that unpredictable and unknown developments may occur during his tenure,” said Zhu Songling, a professor of Taiwan studies at Beijing Union University.

“赖清德是具有冲动和政治偏执的人物，所以不排除在他任期之内发生不可预测的、未知的、导致两岸不和平，或者说导致两岸向不可预测的方向发展的可能性，”北京联合大学研究台湾问题的教授朱松岭表示。

“I’m afraid it’s very dangerous,” he added, noting that Mr. Xi’s views on Taiwan were clear. That includes his insistence that force can be used if necessary.

“所以说恐怕很危险，”他补充道，并指出习近平对台湾的立场是很明确的。这包括他坚持认为必要时可以对台动武。

Western scholars of Chinese politics are not much more optimistic.

研究中国政治的西方学者也没有乐观多少。

“The next four years will be anything but stable in U.S.-China and cross-strait relations,” said Evan S. Medeiros, a professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University.

“未来四年，中美关系和台海关系绝对没有稳定可言，”乔治城大学的亚洲问题研究学教授麦艾文(Evan S. Medeiros)表示。

Like other analysts, he said to expect a familiar suite of pressure tactics.

与其他专家一样，他说预计将看到中国拿出一系列熟悉的施压策略。

At the very least, China will keep trying to manipulate Taiwan’s politics with disinformation, threats and economic incentives. Chinese officials have also hinted they could target trade, eliminating more tariff concessions.

中国首先至少会继续试图通过虚假信息、威胁和经济激励手段来操纵台湾政坛。中国官员也已经暗示，他们可能瞄准贸易领域，取消更多关税减让。

Expanded military drills are another possibility. Chinese fighter jets, drones and ships already encroach on Taiwan almost daily.

另一个可能是军演规模扩大。中国的战斗机、无人机和舰艇现在几乎每天都在步步逼近台湾。

Beijing has also shown that it will keep prodding Washington to pressure Taiwan and to cut military support. Messages of alarm are becoming a common feature of U.S.-China diplomacy.

北京还表明它将继续敦促华盛顿向台湾施压并削减对台的军事支持。互相警告正在成为一个中美双方习以为常的外交元素。

In Washington, on the eve of Taiwan’s election, Liu Jianchao, the head of the Chinese Communist Party’s international department, met with Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken. The United States said Mr. Blinken “reiterated the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.”

在台湾大选前夕，中共中央对外联络部部长刘建超在华盛顿与美国国务卿布林肯举行了会晤。美方表示，布林肯“重申了维护台湾海峡和南海和平与稳定的重要性”。

Mr. Liu, based on other official statements, most likely warned the United States not to intervene “in the Taiwan region” — a complaint sparked by an announcement that a delegation of former officials would head to Taipei after the election. Such visits have followed past elections. China’s Foreign Ministry condemned “the American side’s brazen chattering.”

据中国的其他官方声明，刘建超很可能警告了美国不要“介入台湾地区选举”，此前有美国官员称，台湾选举结束后将派一个非正式代表团访台，引起中国的不满。过去选举结束后往往有这种访问。中国外交部还指责“美方公然对台湾地区选举说三道四”。

There are no plans in Washington to go silent, however, or constrain cooperation. Quite the opposite. Last year, the Biden administration announced $345 million in military aid for Taiwan, with weapons drawn from American stockpiles. Bills in Congress would also tighten economic ties to Taiwan, easing tax policy and laying a foundation for economic sanctions against China if it attacks.

但美国没有在台湾问题上不再发声或限制合作的打算。恰恰相反。拜登政府去年宣布了向台湾提供3.45亿美元的军事援助的计划，包括来自美国库存的武器。美国国会还在讨论有关法案，包括加强与台湾的经济联系，放宽税收政策，为中国攻台时对其实施经济制裁奠定基础。

Having worked with the Americans as vice president, Mr. Lai can move faster, analysts said, possibly into more sensitive areas.

因为任副总统时有过与美国人合作的经验，赖清德的行动可以更快，也许会进入一些更敏感的领域，分析人士说。

The United States could increase collaboration on cybersecurity, strengthening communication networks to a point that blurs the line with (or prepares for) intelligence sharing. It could seek to place military logistics equipment on the island — a strategy the Pentagon is introducing throughout the region.

美国可能提高与台湾合作的方面包括网络安全，将通讯网络加强几乎等同于（或准备进行）情报共享的程度。美国可能寻求在台湾本岛部署军事后勤装备，这是五角大楼正在整个东亚地区推行的战略。

It is also an open secret that American military advisers, mostly retired officers, have a growing presence in Taiwan. Some Taiwanese officials call them “English teachers.” Under Mr. Lai, many more could be on the way.

美国军事顾问（主要是退休军官）在台湾的存在与日俱增，这已经是一个公开的秘密。一些台湾官员将他们称为“英语老师”。在赖清德领导下，更多的顾问可能会来台湾。

“Beijing has been turning a blind eye, so the question is: What size of that presence will cross the Rubicon?” said Wen-ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University’s Taiwan Studies Program. He added: “Hopefully each additional step will not be seen as overtly provocative to elicit or justify a massive Chinese reaction.”

“北京对此一直视而不见，所以问题是：这种存在达到何种程度将意味着战争不可避免？”在澳大利亚国立大学研究台湾问题的政治学者宋文笛说。他补充说：“但愿每次增加的步骤不被视为公然的挑衅，从而引发或证明中国有理由做出强烈反应。”

War, of course, is not inevitable. It may be less likely right now, when China is busy with a dismal economy and the United States with wars in Europe and the Middle East.

当然，战争并非不可避免。在中国忙于应对目前的经济低迷问题、美国忙于欧洲和中东的战争的时候，台海冲突的可能性也许更小。

Some analysts also hope that Mr. Xi will find a way to claim victory in the election and step back from antagonism. With a third-party candidate, Ko Wen-je, winning 26 percent of the vote with a vague focus on a middle path in China relations, Mr. Lai won with just 40 percent.

一些分析人士还希望习近平将在台湾选举结果中找到一个宣称胜利的方式，从而跳出对抗的圈子。第三党的总统候选人柯文哲以在与中国关系上寻找中间道路的模糊纲领赢得了26%的选票，而赖清德仅以40%的得票率当选总统。

“It’s in China’s national interest to expand the path of peaceful integration so they won’t have to fight,” Professor Shirk said. “There are a lot of people watching this interaction and Beijing’s reaction — all the investors are watching it too.”

“扩大通往和平统一的道路符合中国的国家利益，这样他们就不必打仗了，”谢淑丽说。“很多人在观望这种互动以及北京方面的反应，所有的投资者都在关注这个。”

In Taiwan, however, there may be little Mr. Xi can do to polish China’s image. In recent surveys, less than 10 percent of Taiwanese respondents considered China trustworthy.

但对在台湾提升中国形象的问题而言，习近平也许没有什么可做的。在最近的民意调查中，只有不到10%的台湾受访者认为中国值得信任。

“We have seen too many examples of what Xi did to Hong Kong and how he treated his people,” said Cheng Ting-bin, 56, a teacher in Taipei who voted for Mr. Lai.

"我们看到太多的例子，他是怎么对香港，他是怎么对他的人民的，”现年56岁的台北教师郑廷斌说，他投了赖清德的票。

Most Taiwanese see their future elsewhere. On Saturday, many said they hoped the government could leverage the powerful semiconductor industry to build connections to Southeast Asia and Europe.

大多数台湾人认为他们的未来在其他地方。许多人周六表示，他们希望政府能够以本地强大的半导体行业为杠杆，与东南亚和欧洲建立联系。

During the campaign, any identification with China seemed to have been erased. Though Taiwan’s official name is the Republic of China, a holdover from when Chinese nationalists fled there, R.O.C. references were hard to find. At Mr. Lai’s rallies, supporters wore shimmering green jackets with “Team Taiwan” written in English across the back.

在台湾竞选活动期间，任何与中国认同的表示似乎都已被抹去。尽管台湾的官方名称是国民党逃到台湾后遗留下的中华民国，但很少有人在竞选活动中提中华民国。支持者在赖清德的集会上穿着闪亮的绿色夹克，背后印有英文的“Team Taiwan”字样。

Even the Nationalist Party, known for favoring closer ties with Beijing, emphasized deterrence, the status quo and Taiwanese identity. Its candidate, Hou Yu-ih, spoke with such a strong Taiwanese accent that Mandarin speakers unfamiliar with local inflections had a hard time understanding him.

就连以主张与中国建立更密切关系闻名的国民党也强调威慑、维持现状，以及台湾人的认同。国民党候选人侯友宜的国语发音带有特别浓重的台腔，以至于不熟悉本地发音习惯的人很难听懂他说什么。

In many ways, the election was less of a referendum on China policy than usual. Cost-of-living issues became more dominant in part because the candidates’ platforms on foreign affairs all aligned with what most people said they wanted: a stronger military, closer ties with the democratic world, and a commitment to the status quo that avoids provoking Beijing but also seeks to tiptoe out of its orbit.

从很多方面来说，与以前的大选相比，这次大选不那么像是一场有关中国政策的公投。生活成本问题已变得更加重要，部分原因是候选人的对外事务竞选纲领与大多数选民所说的他们想要的一致：更强大的军队、与民主世界建立更紧密的联系，以及致力于保持现状，既要避免挑衅北京，也力求小心翼翼地脱离中国的轨道。

“What we want is just to preserve our way of life,” said Alen Hsu, 65, a retiree who said his father had come from China and his son serves in the Taiwanese Air Force.

“我们想要的只是保持我们现有的生活方式，”65岁的退休人员阿棱·徐（音）说。他说，他的父亲是从大陆来台湾的，他的儿子在台湾空军服役。

“China,” he added, “simply cannot be trusted.”

“中国完全不值得信任，”他补充道。