The Guardian-Taiwan elects Lai Ching-te who rejects Chinas territorial claim as president
January 13, 2024 5 min 860 words
这篇报道反映了台湾选举结果，由蔡英文副总统赖清德成功当选总统，标志着亲主权的民进党迎来了历史性的第三次执政。报道指出，蔡政府在过去几年推动台湾主权和与中国分开的国家身份，导致了与北京的激烈交往。文章提到，尽管赖赢得选举，但没有前任蔡英文的绝对多数，也可能失去立法院的多数席位。 作为新闻评论员，我认为这次选举结果将进一步激化台海紧张局势，引起北京方面的强烈反感。赖清德的当选表明台湾选民对维护自身独立和主权的期望，但也反映了国内对于两大政党传统观念的不满。国际压力将可能增加，特别是在与美国等盟国的关系上，同时北京可能采取更多离散的压力手段，如贸易制裁等，以试图影响台湾的立场。在国际舞台上，台湾必须继续在谨慎抵制中保持坚定，并加强与盟友的紧密联系。报道也指出，选战中涉及的国内问题包括经济和进步价值观，显示了台湾年轻民主的活力和自由的重要性。
Taiwan has voted for Lai Ching-te to be its next president, ushering in a historic third term in power for the pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive party (DPP), in a result that will anger Beijing and heighten tensions across the Taiwan strait.
The victory of Lai, who since 2020 served as vice-president to Tsai Ing-wen, marks the continuation of a government that promoted a sovereign Taiwan and a national identity separate to China, and oversaw some of the deepest cross-strait tensions in decades as Beijing pushed towards its goal of annexation.
Early results showed Lai had won more than 40% of the vote, ahead of Hou You-yi from the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), and a third placed Taiwan People’s party. Pre-election polls had shown Lai with a much narrower lead.
While the DPP has retained power, it is without the majority mandate of Lai’s predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, and most likely without a majority in the legislative yuen.
The entry of a third party candidate into the race had upended traditional voting expectations. Ko Wen-je, a former surgeon and mayor of Taipei City, ran offering a “third way” for voters sick of the two major parties. His detractors said the TPP’s campaign was populist and inconsistent, and light on detail in his plans to deal with China.
Lai, who comes from a more radical wing of the DPP, has pledged to follow Tsai’s careful balancing of the US and China, in which she avoided formalising Taiwan’s de facto independence – and antagonising Beijing – by saying Taiwan was already a sovereign nation, and defending the status quo. Beijing claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has vowed to “re-unify” it with China, and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve that aim.
It has called the DPP a party of separatists, detests Lai, and has twice sanctioned his new vice-president, Hsiao Bi-khim, who until recently served as Taiwan’s envoy to the US.
The DPP had presented itself to voters as the party of cautious resistance, avoiding provocation but building defences and strengthening international relationships, particularly with the US and its allies.
The KMT, which also opposes Chinese rule, had accused the DPP of increasing the danger, and said that if it won the election it would seek to restore dialogue and friendly relations with China to reduce tensions.
Amanda Hsiao, a senior China analyst with the International Crisis Group, said Lai’s win was not necessarily an endorsement of his cross-strait policies.
“I think it reflects more on the inability almost of the KMT to convince voters that they have an approach that has been updated to fit the new geopolitical circumstances, updated since they were last in power,” she told the Guardian.
Hsiao said Beijing was likely to react to Lai’s victory with increased pressure, particularly in the lead-up to his inauguration in May.
“They labelled Lai as a troublemaker, so there is some expectation that they respond,” she said.
“The objectives are to get Lai to characterise the cross-strait relationship in a way that comes as close to what Beijing wants as possible, to adopt a more moderate vibe. Another is to signal to their own domestic audience that things are in control.”
But the acts of pressure were likely to be more discrete than large-scale military drills seen in recent years, Hsiao added, such as more punitive trade decisions, and military or grey-zone activities such as the recent increase in meteorological balloons flying through Taiwan’s sovereign airspace.
The election was also fought on domestic issues, such as the economy and the DPP’s reputation as the vanguard of progressive values. “I am gay, and the DPP is really supportive of human rights, gay rights, and friendly to LGBTQIA,” said Chou Yutao, a DPP supporter, before the vote. “The most important thing is to respect ourselves as Taiwanese,” he said.
Taiwan is a relatively young democracy, emerging from decades of authoritarian rule in the late 1980s and holding its first entirely free elections in the mid-1990s. The freedoms of voting – in stark and conspicuous contrast to those denied in China – are a point of pride and enthusiasm.
Competing parties travelled Taiwan for weeks, holding large public rallies in cities and towns for thousands of attendees. Voters, including many from Taiwan’s large international diaspora, made the journey back to their home neighbourhoods to vote in person.
Vivi Lin, a 25-year-old student, travelled back from the UK to cast her ballot in Yilan, a city in northern Taiwan. The plane ticket cost about 40,000 new Taiwan dollars (£1,000). “It was just such a miraculous moment. I voted along with my grandma and grandpa. I’m the first generation of a democratic Taiwan. Growing up, my grandparents and parents were always telling me how precious the freedom and democracy we have right now is.”
Lai’s win largely followed what polls had been predicting before the blackout period began 10 days ago, but internally the campaign had grown increasingly worried in recent days. While the presidency was assured just a few hours after polls closed, the DPP looked in danger of losing its majority in the 113 seat parliament.