The Washington Post-Taiwans election explained Whats at stake and how will China react

2023-12-18T21:51:26.523Z

TAIPEI, Taiwan — Taiwan’s eighth democratic presidential election, to be held Saturday, is gearing up to be its most consequential yet: It takes place amid increasingly frequent warnings from China’s strongman leader Xi Jinping that Beijing’s rule here is “inevitable” — raising the prospect of a conflict that could draw in the United States.

Never mind that Taiwan, an island of 23 million people with a flourishing civil society and raucous political scene, has never been part of the Communist-run People’s Republic of China, and polls show that its citizens decisively do not want to be.

Further proof of that could come Saturday as Lai Ching-te, of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, is the front-runner for the presidency. If he wins, the DPP will secure an unprecedented third consecutive term — and voters will issue a clear rebuke of closer ties with China.

China has already made its displeasure at the prospect clear. Its military has surrounded Taiwan with fighter jets and warships in recent months, prompting officials in Washington to warn about a heightened risk of confrontation.

As the election has neared, China has also sent balloons, similar to the one that floated over the United States last February, toward the island, leading Taiwan’s Defense Ministry to warn of psychological warfare.

Lai’s main challenger, nationalist Kuomintang candidate Hou Yu-ih, has framed the election as nothing less than a choice between war and peace, warning that the DPP would push Taiwan toward unavoidable confrontation with China.

That would necessarily concern Washington, which views China as a competitor and sells arms to Taiwan for its self-defense, and which is already preoccupied with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

It could also have economic implications. Taiwan produces most of the world’s advanced computer chips, making it a critical link in the global tech supply chain.

Here’s what to know about one of the first big elections of the year.

Who are the presidential candidates?

Front-runner Lai, who also goes by William, is the candidate most likely to upset Beijing. The Chinese government has branded the incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen an agitator for independence and refused to engage with her — and has warned that it sees Lai, the current vice president, as cut from the same cloth.

Hailing from the activist wing of the DPP, Lai was indeed once an outspoken independence advocate. Now 64, he has tempered that as he has risen up the political ranks, and has lately embraced the status quo of Taiwan’s government having de facto sovereignty over the island without provoking Beijing by declaring independence.

These three men are vying to lead Taiwan — and fend off threats from China

The Kuomintang (KMT) candidate, former police officer Hou, 66, has built his platform around restoring trade and business links with China. Hou argues that more dialogue across the Taiwan Strait will be the key to Taiwan’s future stability.

As the popular mayor of New Taipei City, he has earned a reputation for efficiency, but critics say he has little experience with China or foreign affairs.

Unusually for Taiwan, where the political scene is dominated by two parties, this election is a three-way race.

Ko Wen-je of the upstart Taiwan People’s Party has drawn interest from younger voters for his pragmatic focus on domestic issues like housing.

Ko, a 64-year-old surgeon and former mayor, says he can chart a balanced course between Beijing and Washington, but some doubt whether he could muster the legislative backing to achieve his vision without the support of one of the two establishment parties. Elections for control of the Legislative Yuan, or parliament, will also take place on Saturday.

According to polls released before a blackout period began on Jan. 3, Hou and Ko were closing in on Lai’s lead, narrowing it to a closely fought three-way race.

“People are looking for stability, not necessarily change,” said Wen Liu, a scholar at Academia Sinica, the national academy of Taiwan. “Because of the heated geopolitics, voters are looking for someone who can stabilize the country.”

For many, the vice-presidential candidates are the real draw. Lai is running alongside Hsiao Bi-khim, a former envoy to Washington who has been sanctioned by Beijing for her record of engagement with U.S. officials. And Hou is playing to the KMT’s base with his choice of famous firebrand conservative television host Jaw Shaw-kong.

What are they saying about relations with China?

There has been a sea change in recent years in how Taiwanese politicians across the political spectrum talk about China, coinciding with Xi’s increasingly aggressive posturing.

Even the KMT, which has historically favored closer ties with China, is taking a different tone.

Now, none of the three presidential candidates espouses a China-friendly stance, indicating a decisive shift in Taiwan’s politics, said Chiaoning Su, an associate professor at Oakland University in Michigan who studies Taiwan’s political discourse. “Even if we have a KMT victory, we are not going back to an era with close engagement between Taiwan and China,” she said.

That doesn’t mean any of the candidates, including Lai, are calling outright for independence. All three presidential hopefuls say they are in favor of the status quo.

The Taiwan party toughest on China has a strong lead as election nears

They differ, however, on the question of how to maintain it. In particular, do deep cross-strait economic ties and business links protect Taiwan from Chinese aggression, or make it more vulnerable?

Hou and the KMT say that keeping up business links across the strait is the key to holding off Beijing, while Lai and the DPP are convinced that’s a slippery slope toward integration with China on every level. For his part, Ko has at times embraced Beijing’s talking points but also endorsed building up the military.

“Both the DPP and the KMT say that they are pro-status-quo parties — the difference lies in how they think maintaining the status quo ought to work,” said Lev Nachman, a scholar at National Chengchi University in Taipei. “What they’re ultimately trying to sell to voters is that their solution is the one that will keep the peace.”

What do young people care about?

While older voters remember the chaotic years in which Taiwan’s democracy struggled to its feet after decades of one-party rule, first-time voters have only known Taiwan as a vibrant multiparty democracy.

Analysts say that many voters under 40, fed up with the debate about whether to move closer to Beijing, want politicians to devote more airtime to problems that affect everyday life — such as inflation, wage stagnation and rising housing costs, as well as issues like climate change and reproductive rights for same-sex couples.

Ko’s unexpected appeal to younger voters stems partly from their fatigue with Taiwan’s politics constantly being framed around China, Su said. “People don’t want to think too much about this looming threat, and Ko is the escape for them,” she said.

While Ko says he can bring a pragmatic approach to Taiwan’s domestic and economic challenges, he lacks experience managing international relationships, analysts say. And even the most bread-and-butter domestic concerns still ultimately hinge on Taiwan’s sovereignty and relationship with China.

“Of course Taiwanese people care about the economy,” Nachman said. “But you can’t talk about the economy in Taiwan without also talking about how it will navigate economic growth vis-à-vis China, because so much of Taiwan’s economy is still tied up with the People’s Republic of China.”

Why does the election matter beyond Taiwan?

Taiwan’s status has bedeviled the U.S.-China relationship for decades. Since forging diplomatic relations with China in 1979, the United States has recognized Beijing as the government of China and acknowledges — without endorsing — that Beijing claims Taiwan as part of its territory.

Instability in the Taiwan Strait risks inflaming tensions between Washington and Beijing. President Biden has said repeatedly and emphatically that Washington would come to Taiwan’s aid in the event of a military confrontation with China, departing from decades of “strategic ambiguity” on the issue by previous presidents.

Each time, White House officials have sought to play down Biden’s remarks by saying they did not represent any change in U.S. policy. It is unclear how Donald Trump would approach the Taiwan issue if he wins the presidential election this year.

Last year, Congress authorized up to $1 billion in weapons aid to Taiwan under the Presidential Drawdown Authority, and the State Department approved a $500 million sale of search and track systems for F-16 fighter jets.