纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英印度经济高速增长直追中国但投资萎缩是个问题

India’s economy is booming. Stock prices are through the roof, among the best performing in the world. The government’s investment in airports, bridges and roads, and clean-energy infrastructure is visible almost everywhere. India’s total output, or gross domestic product, is expected to increase 6 percent this year — faster than the United States or China.

印度的经济正在蓬勃发展。股票价格暴涨，是世界上表现最好的股票之一。政府对机场、桥梁、道路和清洁能源基础设施的投资几乎随处可见。印度的总产出，或国内生产总值，预计今年将增长6%，增速超过美国和中国。

But there’s a hitch: Investment by Indian companies is not keeping pace. The money that companies put into the future of their businesses, for things like new machines and factories, is stagnant. As a fraction of India’s economy, it is shrinking. And while money is flying into India’s stock markets, long-term investment from overseas has been declining.

但有一个问题：印度公司的投资没有跟上。公司对新机器和新工厂等未来业务的投入不见起色。这类投资在印度经济中的占比在萎缩。此外，在资金涌入印度股市的同时，来自海外的长期投资在下降。

Green and red lights are flashing at the same time. At some point soon, the government will need to reduce its extraordinary spending, which could weigh on the economy if private sector money doesn’t pick up.

绿灯和红灯在同时闪烁。在不久的将来，政府将需要减少其巨额的支出，如果私营部门的资金不能提起来，这可能会给经济带来压力。

No one expects India to stop growing, but a rise of 6 percent is not enough to meet India’s ambitions. Its population, now the world’s biggest, is growing. Its government has set a national goal of catching up to China and becoming a developed nation by 2047. That kind of leap will require sustained growth closer to 8 or 9 percent a year, most economists say.

没有人认为印度会停止增长，但6%的增长不足以满足印度的雄心。这个国家的人口现在是世界上最多的，而且还在增长。印度政府制定了国家目标——到2047年赶上中国，成为发达国家。大多数经济学家表示，这种飞跃需要每年接近8%或9%的持续增长。

The missing investment could also present a challenge for Narendra Modi, the prime minister since 2014, who has concentrated on making India an easier place for foreign and Indian companies to do business.

投资的匮乏也可能给2014年上任的印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪带来挑战，他一直致力于让外国和印度公司能更便利地在印度开展业务。

Mr. Modi is in campaign mode, facing elections in the spring and rallying the nation to cheer his successes. The sluggish investment is not something executives, bankers or foreign diplomats like to discuss, for fear of looking like naysayers. But investors are playing it safe while the economy is signaling both strengths and weaknesses.

莫迪正处于竞选模式，他面临着春季的选举，需要让全国人民为他的成功欢呼。投资低迷不是高管、银行家或外国外交官喜欢讨论的话题，因为他们害怕被视为在唱反调。但在经济同时显示出优势和劣势之际，投资者们都在谨慎行事。

One point of widespread agreement is that India should benefit from China’s slowdown, which has been fueled by an unfolding property crisis. China’s geopolitical tensions with the West present another opening for India, by motivating foreign companies to move production in China to other countries.

人们普遍认同的一点是，中国经济放缓因房地产危机加剧，印度应该从中受益。而中国与西方的地缘政治紧张局势促使外国公司将在中国的生产转移到其他国家，这为印度提供了另一个机会。

Sriram Viswanathan, an Indian-born managing partner at Celesta, a Silicon Valley venture capital fund, describes investors “wanting to fill the vacuum that has been created in the supply chain.”

在印度出生的硅谷风险投资基金Celesta管理合伙人斯里拉姆·维斯瓦纳坦称，投资者“希望填补供应链中出现的真空”。

“That, I think, is the opportunity for India,” he said.

“我认为，这是印度的机会，”他说。

The World Bank has applauded India’s commitment to infrastructure spending, which ramped up during the pandemic when the private sector needed rescuing. Since then, the government has doubled down, paying for bricks-and-mortar improvement to the rickety roads, ports and power supply that once discouraged business investment.

世界银行赞扬了印度对基础设施支出的承诺，疫情期间，当私营部门需要救助时，印度增加了基础设施支出。从那以后，政府加大投入，为状况不佳、曾经阻碍商业投资的道路、港口和电力供应进行实体改造。

But the World Bank, whose mission is to nudge developing economies higher, says it is critical that those billions’ worth of government spending ignite a burst of corporate spending. Its economists speak of a “crowd-in effect,” which happens when, for instance, a new port next to a shiny new industrial park lures companies into building plants and hiring workers. Last year, the bank said it anticipated an imminent crowding-in, as it has forecast for almost three years running.

但以推动发展中经济体增长为使命的世界银行表示，至关重要的是，政府数十亿美元的支出要带动企业的支出。世界银行的经济学家称其为“挤入效应”，例如，当一个新港口毗邻一个崭新的工业园区时，就会吸引公司建厂和雇佣工人。去年，该银行表示，预计即将出现大量挤入，过去将近三年它一直在给出这样的预测。

“To accelerate the growth of confidence, public investment is not enough,” Auguste Tano Kouamé, the World Bank’s country director for India, said at a news conference in April. “You need deeper reforms to make the private sector invest.”

“要加速信心的增长，仅靠公共投资是不够的，”世界银行负责印度的主管奥古斯特·塔诺·库阿梅说。“你需要更深入的改革，来促进私营部门投资。”

A lack of confidence helps explain why the stock markets are setting records, even while foreign investors are backing away from buying into the Indian economy through start-ups and acquisitions.

缺乏信心也有助于解释为何在外国投资者不再通过初创企业和收购来投资印度经济之际，印度股市却屡创新高。

The stock markets in Mumbai, India’s business capital, are worth nearly $4 trillion, up from $3 trillion a year ago, making them more valuable than Hong Kong’s. India’s small investors have been a big part of that, but trading stocks is quick and easy, compared with buying and selling companies. A recent annual average of $40 billion in foreign direct investment has shrunk to $13 billion in the past year.

印度商业之都孟买的股市市值接近四万亿美元，超过了香港股市，一年前这个数字还是三万亿。印度的小投资者一直是其中的重要组成部分，但与买卖公司相比，交易股票既快捷又容易。近期，每年平均400亿美元的外国直接投资在去年减少到130亿美元。

One reason that businesses are watching and waiting to make investments is Mr. Modi’s powerful national government.

企业在投资上的观望和等待的原因之一是莫迪强大的中央政府。

On the one hand, business craves stability in political leadership, and India has rarely, if ever, had such a well-entrenched leader. He demolished the main opposition party in three big elections across the Hindi-speaking heartland in December and looks like a shoo-in for re-election this year. And Mr. Modi is vocally pro-business.

一方面，商界渴望政治领导层的稳定，而印度很少出现这样一位稳固的领导人。去年12月，他在讲印地语的印度核心地区的三场重大选举中摧毁了主要反对党，今年似乎有望连任。并且莫迪也是商业的积极倡导者。

His government plays a markedly interventionist role in managing the economy, in a way that can make it dangerous for firms to place their stakes.

他的政府在管理经济方面扮演着明显的干预主义角色，这可能会使企业的投资变得危险。

In August, the government announced sudden restrictions on the import of laptop computers, to spur production at home. That sent businesses that depend on them into a tailspin, and the measure was almost as suddenly withdrawn. Likewise in July, the government slapped online betting companies with a retroactive 28 percent tax, gutting a $1.5 billion industry overnight.

8月，政府突然宣布限制笔记本电脑进口，以刺激国内生产。这让依赖进口笔记本的企业陷入了混乱，该措施而后以几乎同样突然的方式撤销。7月时也是这样，政府对在线博彩公司征收28%的追溯税，一夜之间摧毁了一个价值15亿美元的行业。

Businesses close to Mr. Modi and his political circle have done especially well. The most prominent examples are Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries and the Adani Group, conglomerates that reach into numerous areas of Indian life. Their combined market power has grown gigantic in recent years: The flagship stocks of each company are worth about six times more than they were when Mr. Modi became prime minister.

与莫迪及其政治圈子关系密切的企业表现尤为出色。最突出的例子是穆克什·安巴尼的信实工业和阿达尼集团，这两家大集团遍及印度生活的许多领域。近年来，两家公司的综合市场实力不断增强：其旗舰股价值都是莫迪刚上任时的六倍左右。

Some smaller companies have been the target of high-profile raids by tax-enforcement agencies.

一些规模较小的公司遭到税务执法机构的大举突击搜查。

“If you’re not the two A’s” — Adani or Ambani — it can be treacherous to navigate India’s regulatory byways, said Arvind Subramanian, an economist at Brown University who served under Mr. Modi’s government as chief economic adviser from 2014 to 2018. “Domestic investors feel a little bit vulnerable,” he added.

曾在2014年至2018年期间担任莫迪政府首席经济顾问的布朗大学经济学家阿尔温德·萨勃拉曼尼亚说，“如果你不是两个A”——阿达尼或安巴尼——在印度监管体系里走旁门左道是很凶险的。“国内投资者感觉不太安全，”他还说。

The past nine years of Modi government have improved many things in the business environment for all. Crucial systems work better, many types of corruption have been reined in and digitization of commerce has opened up new arenas for growth.

莫迪政府在过去九年里为所有人改善了商业环境。关键系统更好地运作，许多类型的腐败得到控制，商业数字化开辟了新的增长领域。

“What is really complex and interesting about this Modi phenomenon is that there’s a lot of hype and bluster and manipulation,” Mr. Subramanian said. “But it’s built on a core of achievement.”

“莫迪现象真正复杂和有趣的地方在于，有很多炒作、咆哮和操纵，”萨勃拉曼尼亚说。“但它是以成就为核心的。”

Still, foreign officials charged with bringing billions of investment capital to India complain that much of the traditional pain of doing business in India lingers. The one most frequently cited is red tape. Too many officials get involved at every level of approval, and it remains painfully slow to obtain legal judgments, let alone to enforce them.

不过，负责将数十亿投资引入印度的外国官员抱怨说，过去在印度做生意的痛苦很大程度上仍然存在。最常被提及的是官僚作风。各级审批都牵涉到太多官员，获得法律裁决的速度仍然极其缓慢，更不用说执行了。

Another factor holding back longer-term investment is an underlying weakness in “the India growth story.” The most powerful source of demand, the kind that foreign investors and domestic businesses covet, is among the wealthiest consumers. In a population of 1.4 billion, about 20 million Indians are doing well enough to buy European consumer products, build luxury homes and beef up the top tier of the automotive sector.

另一个阻碍长期投资的因素是“印度增长故事”的潜在弱点。最强大的需求来源，也是外国投资者和国内企业梦寐以求的，是最富有的消费者。在14亿人口中，约有2000万印度人过着优渥的生活，足以购买欧洲消费品，建造豪华住宅，助推汽车行业顶端的市场。

Most of the rest of the population is struggling with inflation in food and fuel prices. Banks are extending credit to consumers of both kinds, but less so to businesses, which fear that the great majority of their customers will be tightening their belts for years to come.

其余大多数人都在食品和燃料价格的通胀中煎熬。银行对这两类消费者都会提供信贷，但对企业的信贷却较少，因为企业担心他们的绝大多数客户将在未来几年勒紧裤腰带。

“For the moment, there is no evidence that investors are feeling reassured about India,” Mr. Subramanian said.

“目前，没有证据表明投资者对印度感到放心，”萨勃拉曼尼亚说。

But he remains hopeful. The annual growth, even if less than 6 percent, is nothing to sniff at. The new and improved infrastructure should attract more private investment eventually. And the benefits of consumer wealth, unevenly distributed as they are, could over time raise up more incomes.

但他仍然充满希望。年增长率即使低于6%，也不容小觑。全新和改进的基础设施最终应该会吸引更多的私人投资。而消费者财富虽然分配不均，但随着时间的推移，财富收益也可以带来更多的收入。

The biggest wild card is whether India can grab a significant share of global business from China. The highest-profile example is Apple, the $3 trillion megacompany, which is slowly moving some of its supply chain away from China. Its pricey iPhone has barely 5 percent of the Indian market. But currently about 7 percent of the world’s iPhones are made in India — and JPMorgan Chase has estimated that Apple intends to get that to 25 percent by 2025. At that point, all kinds of things become possible for India.

最大的不确定因素是，印度能否从中国手中抢到相当大份额的全球业务。最引人注目的例子是市值三万亿美元的巨型企业苹果，该公司正慢慢将部分供应链从中国转移出去。其昂贵的iPhone仅占印度市场的5%。但目前全球约有7%的iPhone是在印度生产的，摩根大通估计，苹果打算到2025年将这一比例提高到25%。到了那个时候，印度就有了各种各样的可能性。

“We should keep our minds open,” Mr. Subramanian said.

“我们应该保持开放的心态，”萨勃拉曼尼亚说。