纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英新关税严厉惩罚中国特朗普的2025年贸易议程

Former President Donald J. Trump is planning an aggressive expansion of his first-term efforts to upend America’s trade policies if he returns to power in 2025 — including imposing a new tax on “most imported goods” that would risk alienating allies and igniting a global trade war.

前总统特朗普正在计划，如果他在2025年再次上台，将会扩大他在第一个任期内为推翻美国贸易政策所做的努力——比如对“几乎所有进口商品”征收新关税，这将冒着疏远盟友、引发全球贸易争端的风险。

While the Biden administration has kept tariffs that Mr. Trump imposed on China, Mr. Trump would go far beyond that and try to wrench apart the world’s two largest economies, which exchanged some $758 billion in goods and services last year. Mr. Trump has said he would “enact aggressive new restrictions on Chinese ownership” of a broad range of assets in the United States, bar Americans from investing in China and phase in a complete ban on imports of key categories of Chinese-made goods like electronics, steel and pharmaceuticals.

虽然拜登政府保留了特朗普对中国商品征收的关税，但特朗普会走得更远，他将试图强行拆散世界上两个最大的经济体，这两个经济体去年的商品和服务贸易往来约为7580亿美元。特朗普已表示，他将“实行严厉的新限制”，禁止中国人拥有各种各样的美国资产，还将禁止美国人在中国投资，并逐步全面禁止进口中国制造的电子产品、钢铁和药品等关键类别的商品。

“We will impose stiff penalties on China and all other nations as they abuse us,” Mr. Trump declared at a recent rally in Durham, N.H.

“我们将严厉惩罚中国和所有其他不当对待我们的国家，”特朗普最近在新罕布什尔州达勒姆的一次集会上宣告。

In an interview, Robert Lighthizer, who was the Trump administration’s top trade negotiator and would most likely play a key role in a second term, gave the most expansive and detailed explanation yet of Mr. Trump’s trade agenda. Mr. Trump’s campaign referred questions for this article to Mr. Lighthizer, and campaign officials were on the phone for the discussion.

在一场采访中，曾在特朗普政府任最高贸易谈判代表、极有可能在其第二个任期内发挥关键作用的罗伯特·莱特希泽对特朗普的贸易议程做了迄今为止最广泛、最详细的解读。特朗普的竞选团队将记者为本文所提的问题转给了莱特希泽，并参与了记者与后者的电话交谈。

Essentially, Mr. Trump’s trade agenda aims at backing the United States away from integration with the global economy and steering the country toward becoming more self-contained: producing a larger share of what it consumes and wielding its might through one-on-one dealings with other countries.

本质上，特朗普贸易议程的目的在于使美国退出全球经济一体化，引导美国走上更加自成一体的道路：在本土制造国内消费所需的更大份额，并通过与其他国家一对一的交易发挥其威力。

Mr. Trump, who calls himself a “tariff man,” took steps in that direction as president, including placing tariffs on various imports, hamstringing the World Trade Organization and starting a trade war with China. If he is elected, he plans a more audacious intervention in hopes of eliminating the trade deficit and bolstering manufacturing — with potentially seismic consequences for jobs, prices, diplomatic relations and the global trading system.

自称“关税人”的特朗普在担任总统期间曾经朝着这个方向迈出步伐，包括对各种进口产品征收关税，阻碍世界贸易组织的正常工作，以及发动与中国的贸易战。如果再次当选，他打算更大胆地直接干预贸易，希望以此来消除贸易逆差、提振美国的制造业，这将给就业、物价、外交关系和全球贸易体系带来潜在的巨大影响。

His plans — which he has described as “a sweeping pro-American overhaul of our tax and trade policy” — would amount to a high-stakes gamble with the economy’s health, given that unemployment has dropped to 3.7 percent, inflation has substantially cooled from its post-pandemic spike, about 200,000 jobs are being created each month and the stock market is near a record high.

他把自己的计划描述为“对我们的税收和贸易政策进行一次有利于美国的全面改革”。鉴于美国目前的经济状况不错，失业率已降至3.7%，通货膨胀率从疫情后的高点大幅回落，每月创造约20万个就业岗位，股市也在接近历史新高，他的计划等于是一次以经济健康为赌注的豪赌。

Mr. Trump’s plans have drawn warnings from trade experts with more traditional economic views. Daniel M. Price, a top international economics adviser in the George W. Bush White House, called the plans “erratic and irrational.” He said that the costs would be borne by U.S. consumers and producers, and that the plans would risk alienating allies.

特朗普的计划引起了持传统经济观点的贸易专家的警告。曾在乔治·W·布什的白宫担任主要国际贸易顾问的丹尼尔·普莱斯称这些计划“令人费解、没有道理”。他说，其代价将由美国的消费者和生产者承担，而且，这些计划会面临疏远盟友的危险。

“The last time Trump abusively imposed tariffs on our allies — then for concocted national security reasons — a number of key trading partners, like Japan and South Korea, refrained from retaliating against U.S. exports thinking he would soon come to his senses,” Mr. Price said. “This time they will not indulge that fantasy.”

“特朗普上次以编造的国家安全理由为借口，对我们的盟友滥用关税后，日本和韩国等一些主要贸易伙伴没有对美国的出口产品进行报复，因为他们认为特朗普很快就会恢复理智，”普莱斯说。“这次，他们不会再沉迷于这种幻想。”

Evaluating the merits of Mr. Trump’s trade vision is complex because there could be multiple ripple effects, and he is seeking long-term changes. But many economic studies concluded that the tariffs he imposed as president cost American society more than the benefits they produced.

对特朗普贸易愿景的优劣进行评估是很复杂的，这是因为可能会有多重涟漪效应，也因为他在寻求长远的变化。但多项经济研究得出的结论是，他当总统时征收的关税给美国社会造成的损失高于它们产生的好处。

Research from economists at the Federal Reserve and the University of Chicago found that tariffs Mr. Trump imposed on washing machines in 2018 created about 1,800 jobs while raising the median prices consumers paid for new washers and dryers by $86 and $92 per unit. That spending added up to about $817,000 per job.

美联储和芝加哥大学的经济学家的研究发现，特朗普 2018年对洗衣机征收的关税为美国创造了约1800个就业岗位，同时将购买新洗衣机和烘干机的消费者支付的中位价格分别提高了86美元和92美元。这笔支出加起来相当于，创造一个工作岗位花了约81.7万美元。

But Mr. Lighthizer dismissed studies critical of Mr. Trump’s tariffs, describing them as biased in favor of free trade and arguing that inflation had held steady during the administration. He also said that while efficiency, profits and low prices were important, the priority should be encouraging more manufacturing jobs for Americans without college degrees.

但莱特希泽对批评特朗普关税政策的研究嗤之以鼻，他把这些研究描述为支持自由贸易的偏见，并称特朗普执政期间通货膨胀率一直稳定。他还说，虽然效率、利润和低价重要，但首要任务应该是鼓励为没有大学学位的美国人增加更多的制造业就业机会。

“If all you chase is efficiency — if you think the person is better off on the unemployment line with a third 40-inch television than he is working with only two — then you’re not going to agree with me,” Mr. Lighthizer said. “There’s a group of people who think that consumption is the end. And my view is production is the end, and safe and happy communities are the end. You should be willing to pay a price for that.”

“如果你追求的只是效率——如果你认为，一个人没有工作但家里有三台40英寸电视好过有工作但家里只有两台电视——那你就不会同意我的观点，”莱特希泽说。“有些人认为消费是目的。我的观点是，生产才是目的，安全和幸福的社区才是目的。人们应该愿意为这个目的付出代价。”

Universal Tariffs

普遍的关税

The most globally far-reaching of Mr. Trump’s 2025 trade policy plans is to impose a so-called universal baseline tariff, meaning a new tax on most imported goods.

特朗普2025年的贸易政策计划中对全球影响最深远的是征收所谓的普遍基准关税，也就是对几乎所有进口商品征收一项新税。

The Trump campaign has not specified how high this tariff would be. In an August interview on Fox Business, Mr. Trump threw out a figure of 10 percent, saying “I think we should have a ring around the collar” of the U.S. economy.

特朗普竞选团队尚未说明这项关税的具体数字。特朗普今年8月接受福克斯商业频道采访时曾抛出过10%的数字，并说，“我认为我们应该（对美国经济）进行控制”。

Mr. Trump has been vague about other details. Among them, he has not explained whether he envisions the universal tariff as a new floor or an add-on to existing ones. For example, if an imported product was now taxed at 5 percent, would that rate rise to 10 percent or to 15 percent? The latter, Mr. Lighthizer said.

特朗普一直对其他细节含糊其辞，他没有解释他是将普遍关税视为新的下限，还是将其视为现有关税的附加。例如，如果一个进口产品现在的税率是5%，征收普遍基本关税后，该产品的税率会升到10%还是15%？莱特希泽说，是后者。

Nor has Mr. Trump said whether the new tariff would apply to imports from the nearly two dozen countries with which the United States has free trade deals. They include Canada and Mexico, which together account for nearly a fifth of the overall U.S. trade deficit in goods, and with which Mr. Trump’s administration renegotiated the nearly tariff-free trade deal that replaced NAFTA.

特朗普也没有说明新关税是否适用于来自与美国有自由贸易协定的近20几个国家的进口产品。这些国家包括加拿大和墨西哥，这两个国家对美国的贸易逆差合计占美国总贸易逆差的近20%，特朗普政府与它们重新谈判了取代北美自由贸易协定的近乎零关税的贸易协议。

Mr. Trump has also not said whether he thinks he could unilaterally impose the sweeping new tariff under existing law or would need Congress to authorize it.

特朗普也没有说明，他是否认为他能在现行法律下单方面征收全面的新关税，还是需要得到国会授权。

Regardless of the legal authority, a swirl of dislocating losses and gains would ripple out from such a policy of universal tariffs. On the one hand, some domestic manufacturing would rise since domestic makers of rival goods could raise their prices and expand production. That is Mr. Trump’s focus: “We will quickly become a manufacturing powerhouse like the world has never seen before,” he promised in a campaign video.

不管法律上如何授权，征收普遍关税的政策都会引发一连串混乱的损失和收益。一方面，有些国内制造业会崛起，因为生产与进口商品竞争的国内制造商能提高它们产品的价格，扩大生产规模。这是特朗普的重点：“我们将很快成为世界上前所未有的制造业强国，”他在一段竞选视频中承诺。

As a matter of textbook economics, there would also be downsides. It would amount to a tax increase passed onto consumers in the form of higher prices — one that would fall more heavily on poorer people since they spend a higher portion of their incomes on goods.

从经济学教科书的基本概念来看，征收普遍关税也有不利方面。这相当于以提高价格的形式将增税转嫁给消费者，负担会更大程度地落在较穷的人身上，因为他们的收入中用于购买商品的部分更高。

The policy could also lead to downward pressure on other domestic manufacturing. Producers who buy inputs from abroad would pay higher costs, making their products less competitive in the global market. Retaliatory tariffs would reduce demand for U.S. exports.

这项政策也可能给其他国内制造业带来下行压力。需要从国外购买投入品的生产商将支付更高的成本，从而降低其产品在全球市场上的竞争力。其他国家的报复性关税会减少对美国出口商品的需求。

Decoupling From China

与中国脱钩

Mr. Trump has also said he would go much further in imposing “a bold series of reforms to completely eliminate dependence on China in all critical areas.” In 2022, the United States imported $536.3 billion in goods from China and exported $154 billion in goods to it.

特朗普还说，他将更进一步采取“一系列大胆改革，以在所有关键领域彻底消除对中国的依赖”。2022年，美国从中国进口了5363亿美元的商品，向中国出口了1540亿美元的商品。

Among other things, Mr. Trump has said he would impose “a four-year plan to phase out all Chinese imports of essential goods — everything from electronics to steel to pharmaceuticals,” along with new rules to stop American companies from making investments in China and to inhibit Chinese purchases of U.S. assets.

特朗普说，他将采取的措施包括“一项四年计划，逐步停止从中国进口所有必需品——从电子产品到钢铁到药品”，并制定新规则，禁止美国公司在中国投资，禁止中国人购买美国资产。

Still, Mr. Trump also hedged, saying without detail that he would allow “all of those investments that clearly serve American interests.”

尽管如此，特朗普也闪烁其词地表示，他会允许“所有明显符合美国利益的投资”，但没有给出具体细节。

The Biden administration has also moved to impose greater restrictions on economic exchanges with China, but in a more narrowly tailored way. The government bars the export of certain technology with military applications to China, and in August, President Biden signed an order banning new American investment in Chinese companies that are trying to develop things like semiconductors and quantum computers.

虽然拜登政府也在与中国的经济往来上采取了更严格的限制，但这种限制的范围更窄。政府禁止向中国出口某些具有军事用途的技术，今年8月，拜登总统签署了一项命令，禁止美国人对试图研发半导体和量子计算机等产品的中国公司进行新的投资。

Mr. Trump is now proposing going even further, calling for revoking China’s “most favored nation” trade status, meaning repealing the permanent normal trade relations and lower tariffs the United States granted to China after it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. Notably, a House committee this month unveiled a bipartisan report calling for taking that step, too.

特朗普现在提议更进一步，他呼吁取消中国的“最惠国”贸易地位，这意味着取消美国在中国2001年加入世界贸易组织后给予中国的永久正常贸易关系和较低关税。值得注意的是，一个众议院委员会本月公布了一份两党报告也呼吁采取这一步骤。

Doing so would significantly disrupt the U.S. economy, according to a study published last month by Oxford Economics, which was commissioned by the U.S.-China Business Council. It estimated that the resulting increase in tariffs would lead to a $1.6 trillion loss for the U.S. economy and 744,000 fewer jobs over five years.

据美中贸易全国委员会委托牛津经济研究院做的一项已在上月发表的研究，这样做将严重扰乱美国经济。该研究估计，提高关税将导致美国经济五年内损失1.6万亿美元，就业岗位减少74.4万个。

In his 2023 memoir, “No Trade Is Free,” Mr. Lighthizer acknowledged that U.S. businesses that operate in China and those that rely on Chinese imports would object to that idea, but asserted that more manufacturing of products like computers and cellphones would “eventually” return to the United States or its allies, benefiting American workers and the country.

莱特希泽在2023年出版的回忆录《没有免费的贸易》(No Trade is Free)中承认，在中国经营、依赖中国进口的美国企业会反对这个想法，但他断言，更多的计算机和手机等产品的制造会“最终”返回美国或其盟国，使美国工人和国家受益。

He also wrote that inevitable Chinese retaliation to harm U.S. exports would further “contribute to the strategic decoupling” of the two economies. “Anyone who concedes that China is a problem but insists that there is some magical, disruption-free solution to the problem China presents is quite likely a liar, a fool, a knave, an irredeemable globalist, or some combination thereof,” he wrote.

他还写道，中国不可避免地会对美国出口中国的产品进行报复，这将进一步“促进”两国经济的“战略脱钩”。“任何人如果承认中国是问题，却坚持认为在解决中国这个问题上有某种神奇的、不扰乱经济的解决方案，那他有相当大的可能是骗子、傻瓜、不诚实的人、不可救药的全球主义者，或上述东西的组合，”他写道。

Decades of Railing Against Deficits

抱怨了几十年的贸易逆差

Inside the United States, critics on both the left and the right have increasingly pointed to the downsides of trade for working-class communities. Social decay spread as corporations closed factories where they could shift to cheaper overseas production, contributing — along with other factors, like rising automation — to the stagnation of working-class wages. Supply-chain disruptions during the pandemic focused attention on another risk of globalization.

在美国国内，左派和右派批评人士已越来越多地指出贸易给工人阶级社区带来的负面影响。随着企业关闭工厂，转向在海外更便宜地生产产品，社会衰落蔓延，加上自动化程度提高等其他因素，导致工人阶级的工资停滞不前。疫情期间的供应链中断让人们注意到了全球化的另一个风险。

And there is growing anxiety about the security implications of America’s reliance on China for certain critical goods and resources, and anger at China’s practices of forcing companies to share technology and its outright theft of trade secrets.

美国在某些关键商品和资源上依赖中国导致的国家安全问题也引发了越来越多焦虑；中国强迫企业分享技术、直接了当地窃取商业秘密则激发了愤怒。

Politically, Mr. Trump was ahead of the pack in focusing on the downsides of free trade. For more than 30 years, he has railed against trade deficits, which he views like company balance sheets as a simple matter of profits and losses. He complains that foreign countries that export more to the United States than they import from it are ripping America off.

从政治上来看，特朗普是率先关注自由贸易弊端的人。他30多年来一直在抨击贸易逆差，认为贸易逆差就像公司资产负债表那样，是个损益的简单问题。他抱怨说，那些向美国出口商品多于从美国进口商品的国家是在敲美国竹杠。

Mr. Trump’s trade wars were costly. After China — which has become the largest export market for American farmers — retaliated by raising tariffs on U.S. agricultural products like soybeans, the Trump administration began a $28 billion government bailout to keep farmers afloat. A February 2020 study calculated that the higher cost of metal for American manufacturers owing to the steel tariffs had caused a loss of about 75,000 jobs.

特朗普的贸易战代价高昂。中国已成为美国农民最大出口市场，该国用提高大豆等美国农产品关税的做法进行报复后，为了维持农民生计，特朗普政府启动了一项280亿美元的政府救助措施。据2020年2月的一项研究计算，对钢铁征收关税使美国制造商面临更高的金属材料成本，导致了约7.5万个工作岗位消失。

As aggressive as Mr. Trump’s first-term trade policies were, he did not always go as far as he wanted. Despite threatening to withdraw from the World Trade Organization, for example, he never did. While he loathed NAFTA, his administration negotiated a replacement that, while modernizing various terms, kept in place a nearly tariff-free market with Mexico and Canada.

尽管特朗普在第一任期上采取了激进的贸易政策，但他并不总能达到他想做到的程度。例如，尽管他曾威胁要退出世界贸易组织，但他从未这样做。虽然他厌恶北美自由贸易协定，但他政府谈判的替代方案虽然对各种条款做了现代化处理，但保留了与墨西哥和加拿大几乎零关税的市场。

Mr. Lighthizer, who led those negotiations, wrote in his memoir that whether or not Congress should have passed NAFTA in 1993, abruptly withdrawing from it after decades of economic integration would have caused “an economic and political catastrophe,” sending “shock waves through the economy” and hurting “Trump voters in Texas and throughout the farm belt.”

领导这些谈判的莱特希泽在回忆录中写道，不管国会是否应该在1993年批准《北美自由贸易协定》，在北美经济一体化已经几十年后突然退出该协定，会引发“经济上和政治上的灾难”，在“整个经济中引起冲击波”，并损害“得克萨斯州和整个农业带的特朗普选民们”。