纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英俄罗斯和中国会干预2024年美国大选吗

The U.S. government is preparing for its adversaries to intensify efforts to influence American voters next year. Russia has huge stakes in the presidential election. China seems poised to back a more aggressive campaign. Other countries, like Iran, might again try to sow division in the United States.

美国政府正在做好准备，以应对对立国家试图在明年进一步影响美国选民的努力。美国总统大选与俄罗斯利害攸关。中国似乎准备支持一场更为激进的宣传运动。伊朗等其他国家可能会再次试图在美国制造分裂。

As Washington looks ahead to the 2024 vote, U.S. intelligence agencies last week released a report on the 2022 midterm elections — a document that gives us some hints about what might be to come.

在华盛顿展望2024年大选之际，美国情报机构上周发布了一份关于2022年中期选举的报告，该文件为接下来可能发生的情况提供了一些线索。

Spy agencies concluded Russia favored Trump in 2016. What about in 2024?

间谍机构得出的结论是俄罗斯在2016年支持了特朗普。那么2024年又将如何？

Russia appears to be paying close attention to the election, as its war in Ukraine is soon to enter a third year.

随着在乌克兰的战争即将进入第三个年头，俄罗斯似乎在密切关注选情。

Former President Donald J. Trump, the leading Republican candidate, has expressed skepticism about Ukraine funding. President Biden has argued that assisting Ukraine is in America’s interest.

支持率最高的共和党候选人、前总统特朗普已对资助乌克兰提出了质疑。拜登总统认为，援助乌克兰符合美国的利益。

While there remains bipartisan support for Ukraine, Russia is focused on weakening Democrats to prevent the United States from providing more aid in the years to come.

尽管两党仍然支持乌克兰，但俄罗斯的重点在于打击民主党，以阻止美国在未来几年向乌克兰提供更多援助。

In 2022, the intelligence report found, Russia attempted to denigrate Democrats, including by amplifying allegations of corruption by Mr. Biden’s family, in large measure because of his administration’s support for Ukraine.

这份情报报告发现，俄罗斯在2022年对民主党人进行了污蔑诋毁，包括夸大拜登家人的腐败指控，这在很大程度上是因为拜登政府对乌克兰的支持。

“Moscow blames the U.S. president for forging a unified Western alliance and for Kyiv’s continued pro-Western trajectory,” the report found.

“莫斯科认为，美国总统是建立统一西方联盟并让基辅继续走亲西方道路的始作俑者，”报告指出。

Russia was distracted by its war in 2022, officials said, but the report explains how the fighting was intertwined with its efforts to influence American politics. Russia, according to the report, considered delaying its withdrawal from the southern region of Kherson to avoid giving Ukraine supporters in the United States “a perceived win before the election.”

官员称俄罗斯在2022年因乌战自顾不暇，但该报告阐述了乌战如何与俄罗斯影响美国政治的努力交织到了一起。报告称，俄罗斯曾考虑推迟从南部地区赫尔松撤退，以免让支持乌克兰的美国势力“在选举前被认为取得了胜利”。

Russia ultimately announced its retreat a day after the election.

最终，俄罗斯在选举第二天宣布撤军。

With Republican opposition to Ukraine funding growing, officials believe that Moscow is likely to try to interfere even more in 2024.

随着共和党反对资助乌克兰的呼声越来越高，官员认为，莫斯科很可能会在2024年尝试进行更多干预。

Has China learned from Russia?

中国是否学习了俄罗斯的经验？

While Russia has long tried to influence American political debates over divisive issues, China has traditionally focused more narrowly, working against local politicians who take stands on Tibet, Taiwan or other similar issues. U.S. officials say that may be about to change.

虽然俄罗斯长期以来一直试图影响美国在分歧议题上的政治辩论，但中国关注的范围往往更窄，只与在西藏、台湾或其他类似问题上表态的地方政客作对。美国官员表示，情况也许就要发生变化了。

It is not entirely clear what China is going to do, or what side it will take in 2024. But the report suggests that Chinese leaders viewed the 2022 election as a chance to portray the U.S. model as chaotic.

目前还不能完全确定中国将采取何种策略，或是在2024年将支持哪一边。但报告指出，中国领导人曾将2022年的选举视为宣传美国模式充满混乱的机会。

With President Xi Jinping tightening his grip on politics and the economy, the ideological differences between the United States and China have grown starker. With that, Chinese leaders are more interested in influence campaigns that magnify social divisions in the United States, long the focus of Russian operations.

随着习近平主席加强对政治和经济的控制，中美意识形态方面的分歧已变得更加明显。因此，中国领导人将对扩大美国社会分裂的影响力活动更感兴趣，而那正是俄罗斯行动长期以来的重点目标。

How far the Chinese will go is not completely understood. But American spy agencies appear to know more than they are revealing. The report contains one of those frustrating redactions. It announces that Chinese leaders have “directed a new focus on” and then blacks out the subject of the sentence.

尚不完全清楚中方将做到何种程度。但美国间谍机构对此的了解似乎比他们透露的情况更多。这份报告中存在影响阅读的删节。它宣称中国领导人“新的重点放在”某事之上，但却涂黑了句子的主题。

How might artificial intelligence play a role?

人工智能或将发挥怎样的作用？

China has already begun experimenting with artificial intelligence in its influence campaigns. Industry experts say that new technologies will make it easier for foreign countries to mimic native English speakers and generate messages amplifying existing divisions more rapidly.

中国已开始在影响力活动中尝试使用人工智能。行业专家称这种新技术将使外国更容易模仿英语母语者，并以更快的速度生成扩大现存分歧的信息。

But government officials are more worried artificial intelligence technologies could be used to create hyper-realistic — but fake — videos, the kind of disinformation that could do damage quickly.

但政府官员更担心的问题在于，人工智能技术可能被用来制作极其逼真但其实虚假的视频，而这种虚假信息可能会迅速产生有害影响。

Are countries still trying to hack into local government computer systems?

一些国家是否还在尝试入侵地方政府的计算机系统？

They are not. This is one bit of good news in the most recent intelligence assessment.

并没有。这是这份最新情报评估中的一个好消息。

The American election system’s extreme decentralization is its greatest defense. Russian hackers did target voting systems in 2016. But foreign countries now believe it is far too difficult to meaningfully affect vote counts by hacking into local government computer networks.

美国选举制度的极度分散是其最重要的防御机制。俄罗斯黑客在2016年的确攻击了投票系统。但外国如今认为，通过入侵地方政府的计算机网络来对计票结果造成实质性影响的难度太大。

As a result, a variety of foreign powers have redoubled efforts to otherwise influence the election.

这导致各方外国势力在影响选举的其他手段上投入了更多努力。

Beyond China and Russia

中俄之外

Besides China and Russia, the report looks at other countries interested in influencing the U.S. vote.

除了中国和俄罗斯之外，该报告还关注了其他有意影响美国大选的国家。

Cuba, hoping the United States will drop sanctions against its government, tried to weigh in on some congressional and governors’ races in 2022, the report found. While details are redacted, the report said officials in Havana focused on Florida politicians because the Cuban American community in Miami has an outsized influence on policy toward Cuba. Iran backed several inauthentic campaigns on Twitter and other social media platforms seeking to boost progressive candidates. Some of those fake accounts also amplified pro-Palestinian sentiment.

报告指出，古巴希望美国政府放弃对它的制裁，曾试图在2022年的部分国会及州长竞选中发挥作用。虽然有细节被抹去，但该报告称古巴官员重点关注了佛罗里达州的政界人士，因为迈阿密当地的古巴裔美国人社区对美国的古巴政策有着极其巨大的影响力。伊朗在Twitter（现改名为X——译注）和其他社交媒体平台上支持了一些旨在助力进步派候选人的虚假信息宣传。其中一些虚假信息账号还放大了支持巴勒斯坦的情绪。