纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英中国与西方国家之间的紧张关系将如何影响外商投资

This article is part of our special section on the DealBook Summit that included business and policy leaders from around the world.

本文是“交易录峰会”(DealBook Summit)特别报道的一部分，该峰会得到了世界各地商业及政策领袖的参与。

When President Biden met his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, last month in their first face-to-face talks in a year, observers were watching for any hint of a thaw in relations. The leaders seemed happy to oblige.

上个月，当美国总统拜登与中国国家主席习近平举行一年来的首次面对面会谈时，观察人士在关注两国关系是否有任何解冻的迹象。对此两国领导人似乎很乐意配合。

“We have to ensure that competition does not veer into conflict,” Mr. Biden said in his opening remarks. “For two large countries like China and the United States, turning their back on each other is not an option,” Mr. Xi said in his. “Planet Earth is big enough for the two countries to succeed.”

“我们必须确保竞争不会演变成冲突，”拜登在开场演讲中说。“大国竞争解决不了中美两国和世界面临的问题。这个地球容得下中美两国，”习近平在演讲中说。

That the leaders of two of the world’s most powerful countries, which have been fierce rivals, were talking at all was seen as a small sign of progress. But a separate gathering later that day was revealing about how the two nations are linked.

世界上最强大的两个国家一直是激烈的竞争对手，两国领导人的会谈被视为取得了一些进展的迹象。但当天晚些时候举行的另一场聚会却揭示了两国是如何与彼此相连的。

At a San Francisco hotel, Mr. Xi hosted a banquet with a group of top American business leaders, including Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, and Larry Fink, the boss of BlackRock, the giant asset manager. Mr. Xi received a standing ovation and declared that China welcomed global business and was an open market, despite policies and actions that have demonstrated the opposite and forced some companies to exit the country.

在旧金山的一家酒店，习近平宴请一群美国顶级商界领袖，其中包括苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克和资产管理巨头贝莱德的老板拉里·芬克。习近平得到了全场起立鼓掌，他宣布中国欢迎全球企业，是一个开放的市场，尽管该国的政策和行动显示了相反的情况，并迫使一些公司退出中国。

So many executives were willing to show their support because China remains important for global business, despite the challenges of operating there and the economic slowdown in the country. Last year, bilateral trade hit a record high of almost $691 billion, according to U.S. government data.

如此多的高管愿意表示支持，是因为尽管在中国经营面临挑战，而且这个国家的经济在放缓，但中国对全球企业仍然很重要。美国政府数据显示，去年美中双边贸易额创下近6910亿美元的历史新高。

Yet tensions over everything from national security and trade to technology and the future of Taiwan are not going away. The Biden administration says China is the United States’ biggest national security threat, and Donald Trump, who imposed trade tariffs on Chinese imports when he was president, seems likely to be the Republican nominee for president next year.

然而，从国家安全、贸易到科技和台湾的未来，各个方面的紧张局势并没有消失。拜登政府表示，中国是美国最大的国家安全威胁，而在担任总统期间对中国进口商品征收贸易关税的特朗普，似乎很可能在明年的总统选举中获得共和党候选人提名。

Regardless of who wins in 2024, there is wide agreement that Beijing should be challenged. Although Mr. Biden continued some policies introduced by his predecessor, the two administrations have taken different approaches to countering China.

无论谁在2024年获胜，人们普遍认为北京应该受到挑战。尽管拜登延续了前任的一些政策，但两届政府在对抗中国方面采取了不同的方法。

The Biden administration’s strategy has been built on three pillars: Cultivating alliances to help counter Beijing; competing better with China; and investing at home to bolster key economic sectors via policies such as the Inflation Reduction Act to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles and the Chips Act to increase semiconductor manufacturing.

拜登政府的战略建立在三大支柱上：培养联盟以帮助对抗北京；更好地与中国竞争；在美国国内进行投资，通过加速向电动汽车过渡的《减少通货膨胀法案》和发展半导体制造业的《芯片法案》等政策，扶持关键经济部门。

In national security, the Biden administration secured a series of long-term agreements. It signed Aukus, a security agreement with Britain and Australia, to make nuclear-powered submarines available for the Pacific country. The United States rebooted the Quad security pact with Japan, Australia and India, a rising power seen as a regional bulwark against China. Mr. Biden also brokered a reconciliation between South Korea and Japan, ending decades of acrimony and signing a three-way military and intelligence-sharing pact.

在国家安全方面，拜登政府达成了一系列长期协议。它与英国和澳大利亚签署了Aukus安全协议，为澳大利亚这个太平洋国家提供核动力潜艇。美国重新启动了与日本、澳大利亚和印度的四方安全协议。正在崛起的大国印度被视为对抗中国的地区堡垒。拜登还促成了韩国和日本之间的和解，结束了两国数十年的敌对状态，并签署了一项三方军事和情报共享协议。

The engagement has extended to commerce and trade, with the Netherlands and Japan agreeing to comply with U.S. export controls to China on advanced chip-making technology, despite the economic consequences for some of their biggest companies.

这种接触已扩展到商业和贸易领域，荷兰和日本同意遵守美国对中国先进芯片制造技术的出口管制，尽管这会给两国最大的一些公司带来经济后果。

But a big question looms: How long can the United States maintain that united front? The Inflation Reduction Act offered huge government subsidies to encourage investment in renewable energy and technology. For Mr. Biden, the legislation represents a serious effort to transform the American economy. But it angered European governments, with the European Union saying it discriminates against the continent’s companies and may have violated World Trade Organization rules.

但一个大问题迫在眉睫：美国能将这种统一战线维持多久？《减少通货膨胀法案》提供巨额政府补贴，鼓励对可再生能源和技术的投资。对拜登来说，这项立法怀着实现美国经济转型的雄心。但它激怒了欧洲各国政府，欧盟称它歧视欧洲企业，可能违反世界贸易组织的规定。

“The U.S. has done a better job with Asia than with Europe, and that reflects the fact that Asia was simply a bigger priority than Europe was,” said Noah Barkin, a senior adviser in the China practice at the Rhodium Group, a research firm.

研究公司荣鼎咨询负责中国事务的高级顾问诺亚·巴金(Noah Barkin)说，“美国在亚洲的工作比在欧洲做得更好，这反映了一个事实——亚洲比欧洲更受重视。”

Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, has warned that Europe must not blindly follow the American approach and be dragged into a war between the United States and China over Taiwan. German companies are heavily involved in China, with about a third of businesses importing essential materials from the country.

法国总统马克龙警告称，欧洲不能盲目追随美国的做法，被拖入中美之间围绕台湾进行的战争。德国企业在中国有大量业务，约三分之一的企业从中国进口重要材料。

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said in a speech in March that “de-risking” relations with China was critical — an important rhetorical difference from the “de-coupling” that was often heard in U.S. policymaking circles.

欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩在3月的一次演讲中说，与中国建立“去风险”的关系是至关重要的——这与美国决策圈经常说的“脱钩”是一个重要的措辞区别。

China sees an opportunity to exploit potential differences between the United States and Europe. Ms. von der Leyen and other European officials will hold a two-day summit beginning today in Beijing, during which they will meet Mr. Xi.

中国看到了利用美欧之间潜在分歧的机会。冯德莱恩和其他欧洲官员于12月7日在北京参加为期两天的峰会，期间他们会见了习近平。

“Beijing hopes that Europe won’t go the same way as the U.S.,” said Yu Jie, a senior fellow on China at Chatham House, a London-based think tank.

“北京希望欧洲不要走美国的老路，”伦敦智库查塔姆研究所中国问题高级研究员于洁表示。

American businesses, meanwhile, want greater certainty in the U.S.-China relationship. “Business can’t ignore China because the market is too big, but they question how much geopolitical risk they are willing to take themselves,” Ms. Yu said.

与此同时，美国企业希望美中关系有更大确定性。“企业不能忽视中国，因为中国市场太大了，但他们不知道自己能承受多大的地缘政治风险，”于洁说。

Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing, says the end of Covid-era travel restrictions that prevented American business leaders and policymakers from having face-to-face meetings has helped.

北京美国商会主席何迈可(Michael Hart)表示，新冠时期的旅行限制阻碍了美国商界领袖和政策制定者的面对面会谈，这一限制的结束对局势有所帮助。

He acknowledges that there are challenges to operating in China but said he believes many companies, such as direct-to-consumer businesses, inevitably want to tap into a huge market. Mr. Hart also contends that business can act as a counterweight to the political dogmatism that dominates in Washington. “U.S. business will be here and be that ballast,” he said.

他承认，在中国经营存在挑战，但他说，他相信许多公司，比如直接面向消费者的企业，都不可避免地希望进入这个巨大的市场。哈特还认为，企业可以作为华盛顿政治教条主义的制衡力量。“美国企业将会留在这里，成为压舱石。”

Others, however, see that as wishful thinking. Chris Miller, the author of “Chip Wars,” a book on the geopolitical implications of the semiconductor industry, who teaches international affairs at Tufts University, says the root causes of the difficulties for global businesses operating in China are Mr. Xi’s policies. They are deterring long-term foreign investment and reshaping the Chinese economy in ways that alarm international companies.

然而，也有人认为这是一厢情愿的想法。在塔夫茨大学教授国际事务的克里斯·米勒是《芯片战争》(Chip Wars)一书的作者，该书探讨了半导体行业的地缘政治影响。他说，全球企业在中国经营困难的根本原因是习近平的政策，这些政策正在阻止长期外国投资，并以令国际公司感到震惊的方式重塑中国经济。

Mr. Miller points to overproduction by Chinese automakers generating a backlash in Europe and Japan. Last week, the Biden administration announced restrictions that limit how much Chinese companies can benefit from American subsidies for E.V. manufacturing.

米勒指出，中国汽车制造商的生产过剩在欧洲和日本引发了反弹。上周，拜登政府宣布了一些限制措施，限制中国企业从美国电动汽车制造业补贴中获益。

Mr. Xi’s dinner with business leaders in San Francisco, Mr. Miller adds, was an example of why doing business in China is harder than ever, rather than a sign of a more welcoming environment from Beijing.

米勒还说，习近平在旧金山与商界领袖共进晚餐的事，只是说明了为什么在中国做生意比以往任何时候都困难，而不是北京提供了更友好环境的标志。

“You can equate the difficulty of doing business there with the number of standing ovations,” he said. “That is not evidence that the business environment is safe, but that market access depends on the whims of the Chinese leadership. Global business can’t ignore the world’s second-largest economy, but that doesn’t mean they are happy or planning to invest more.”

“你可以把在那里做生意的难度等同于起立鼓掌的次数，”他说。“这并不能证明商业环境是安全的，而是表明市场准入取决于中国领导层的一时之念。全球企业不能忽视世界第二大经济体，但这并不意味着他们乐于或计划加大投资。”