纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英基辛格对中国的认知是正确的至今如是

In the cold winter of 1972, a schoolteacher in a poor Chinese village asked his whole class: “The U.S. president, Nixon, and his adviser Dr. Kissinger will be in China. What should we do?”

1972年寒冬，在中国的一个贫困乡村，一位老师在课堂上问：“美国总统尼克松和他的顾问基辛格博士要来中国了。我们该怎么做？”

Then 8 years old, I was a good student and had just finished my homework — writing down 50 times in Chinese characters the omnipresent political slogan “Down with the American imperialists! Down with the Soviet revisionists! Long live Chairman Mao!”

当时我八岁，是个好学生，我刚刚做完作业——将无处不在的政治口号“打倒美帝！打倒苏修！毛主席万岁！”抄写50遍。

So I quickly popped up with an answer: “Arrest them, because they are our enemies.”

于是我不假思索地给出了回答：“把他们抓起来，因为他们是我们的敌人。”

Within a few years, I realized how wrong I had been. The American outreach crafted by Henry Kissinger helped catalyze decades of complex political changes in China, leading to an era of reform and opening that eventually lifted 800 million people out of poverty and opened the eyes and minds of even more people.

几年后，我才意识到自己大错特错。在亨利·基辛格的策划下，美国的主动接触催动了中国数十年的复杂政治变革，带来一个改革开放的时代，最终令8亿人民摆脱贫困，让更多的人打开了自己的眼界与思想。

All of that greatly affected my life, along with the lives of millions of other young students. Five years after Mr. Kissinger’s visit, China reopened colleges after being effectively closed for a decade. Through hard work and good luck, I was able to enter college and later went to the United States to obtain my Ph.D. from the same university where Mr. Kissinger received his. What a magical change for a schoolboy who had just been copying down party propaganda. The simple lesson I learned that day? Don’t be tricked by political slogans.

这一切对我乃至成千上万年轻学生的一生产生了巨大影响。基辛格访华五年后，中国重新开放了实际已经关闭十年的大学。凭借苦读和运气，我得以进入大学读书，后来又去了美国读博士，我去的正是基辛格先生拿到博士学位的那间学校。这对一个不久前还在抄写党的宣传口号的学童来说，是何其不可思议的变化。我在那一天学到了什么？很简单，别被政治口号蒙蔽。

I can think of no other political figure or thought leader today who helped to initiate as monumental a positive impact on a foreign country as Mr. Kissinger. Although his death at the age of 100 last week has triggered polarized reactions in America, it has aroused overwhelmingly warm sentiments in China’s normally harsh internet space. Grateful articles by private citizens in his memory have gone viral. As the debate rages on over his legacy, I believe one thing is indisputable: Mr. Kissinger was right about China.

在当今的政治人物或思想领袖中，我想不到还有谁能像基辛格先生这样，对一个异邦产生如此重大而积极的影响。上周他以百岁高龄去世，在美国引起的反应是两个极端，然而在通常尖刻刺耳的中国互联网世界，绝大多数人的看法是带着一种暖意的。普通人用充满感激的笔调写下自己的回忆，得到大量转发。尽管围绕他的功过是非展开了激烈讨论，但我相信有一点是毋庸置疑的：基辛格先生对中国的看法是正确的。

Forty years after I called for Mr. Kissinger’s arrest, I found myself standing nervously next to him on a stage facing a live audience of 2,700 people in Toronto for the Munk Debate, which also included Niall Ferguson and Fareed Zakaria. The debate tothumbnail: “Be it resolved, the 21st century will belong to China.” Mr. Kissinger took the con side of the argument, and I was pro. I wished I had been on his side. Not only because I continued to feel guilty about suggesting he be thrown into a Chinese jail but also because I disagreed with the proposition I was being asked to argue; I have never believed that China will own the world.

在要求逮捕基辛格先生四十年后，我发现我正惶恐地与他站在同一个舞台上，面对来现场观摩蒙克辩论会的2700名观众，同台的还有尼尔·弗格森和法里德·扎卡利亚。辩论的题目是：“只要下定决心，21世纪是属于中国的。”基辛格先生是反方，我是正方。我真希望跟他在同一队。这不只因为我对那个把他关进中国监狱的建议感到愧疚，还因为我并不认同分配给我的这个立场，我从来不认为中国会占有世界。

To the disappointment of my debate teammate, Mr. Ferguson — but to my secret satisfaction — we lost. It was clear that Mr. Kissinger’s authority on and command of the topic, coupled with Mr. Zakaria’s articulate presentation, gave their team a significant advantage. Most of the audience left the debate less convinced that the 21st century would belong to China.

让我的辩论队友弗格森感到失望——但让我私下里挺满意——的是，我们输了。基辛格先生在这一命题上的权威和娴熟，加上扎卡利亚条理分明的陈述，显然让他们占据了很大优势。这场辩论让多数观众倾向于相信，21世纪并不属于中国。

Mr. Kissinger’s approach to China was formed by his lifelong study of world history and politics. He had a deep understanding of the interplay among big powers and an inherent understanding of China’s perspective on the world. Underneath it all, he had an unwavering loyalty to America’s best interests.

基辛格先生的对华策略是在他对世界历史和政治的毕生学习中形成的。他对大国间的相互作用有着深刻的认识，对中国看待世界的方式也有着内在的理解。而在这一切的背后，是他对美国利益的绝对忠诚。

There are three important lessons to be gleaned from Mr. Kissinger’s approach to China. First, China is not a great threat to the United States. China simply does not appear to have the global ambition, institutional capacity, historical tradition or ideological clarity to replace and behave like the United States of today. Its geographical position doesn’t help. During the Toronto debate, Mr. Kissinger said rhetorically: Look at a map of the world. China is bordered by 14 countries. How many of them can China count on as stalwart friends? How much energy does China have left to spend on managing global affairs after coping with its neighbors? The United States, by contrast, has only two.

我们从基辛格先生的对华策略可以得到三个重要的教训。首先，中国不对美国构成重大威胁。中国似乎并没有取代今日之美国并效仿其行为所需要的全球野心、制度实力、历史传统或意识形态明确性。这也是它的地缘政治处境决定的。在多伦多的辩论会上，基辛格先生设问：看看世界地图。与中国接壤的国家有14个。这其中有几个国家可以视为中国的忠诚朋友？在应付了这些邻国后，中国还能剩下多少精力去管理全球事务？相比之下，美国只有两个邻国。

Second, no one can change China from the outside. Its size and history make this impossible. You may work with China and help its leaders initiate domestic changes, but you can never change it from the outside. Mr. Kissinger argued repeatedly, including in his book “On China,” that China has thousands of years of history of sophisticated political institutions that continue to exist today. It is impossible and counterproductive to push China to change unless the forces of change come from inside. In fact, as early as the late 1960s, Chairman Mao had already begun thinking about allying with the United States to better resist the growing ambitions of the Soviet Union. Had Mao not made up his mind to work with Washington, Mr. Kissinger could never have made his historic trip to China in 1971.

其次，谁也无法从外部改变中国。它的体量和历史决定了这是不可能的。你可以和中国合作，帮助它的领导人发动对本国的改革，但你永远无法从外部去改变它。基辛格先生反复论证了一点——包括在他的书《论中国》中——中国有缜密的政治体制，这种体制已经存在了几千年，一直延续到今天。除非是通过来自内部的力量，否则推动中国的改变是不可能的，只会适得其反。事实上早在上世纪60年代末，毛主席就已经开始考虑与美国结盟，以便抵制苏联日益强横的野心。如果不是毛下定决心与美国合作，基辛格先生在1971年历史性的中国之行是不可能实现的。

Third, the United States must treat China as an equal partner to resolve global challenges, including nuclear nonproliferation, climate change, proper governance of artificial intelligence and sustainable development. This point is more relevant today than ever: China is now the world’s largest producer of solar panels and windmills, a global leader in artificial intelligence research and the only nation operating its own crewed space station.

第三，美国必须将中国作为平等的合作伙伴，以应对包括核不扩散、气候变化、人工智能的妥善治理和可持续发展在内的全球挑战。这一点在今天尤其重要：中国现在是世界上最大的太阳能板和风力发电机生产国，在人工智能研究上居于领先地位，也是唯一有自己的载人空间站的国家。

In recent years, many American political leaders have begun to disagree with Mr. Kissinger’s approach, especially the first one. As a result, U.S. foreign policy has become increasingly hawkish toward China. This is very unfortunate. Yes, China has become more powerful and gained more international influence. But Beijing does not participate in any international military conflict. To my knowledge, China has not trained any top foreign officials in the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Party School and has no plan to change in this regard. Continuing to treat China as a growing threat is a major diversion of U.S. political energy, to say the least.

近年，许多美国政治领导人开始反对基辛格先生的策略，尤其是第一条。美国外交政策也因此对中国采取越来越强硬的姿态。这是非常不幸的。是的，中国更强大了，获得了更多国际影响力。但是北京没有参与任何国际军事冲突。据我所知，中国共产党的中央党校没有培训过任何一位外国高官，并且也没有改变这一状况的打算。不断视中国为一个越来越大的威胁，至少是对美国政治能量的无谓消耗。

Mr. Kissinger was a refugee of the Nazi regime and unquestionably loyal to the United States. His strategies served American interests: The United States won the Cold War and enjoyed the peace dividend with years of economic prosperity. Of course, China, too, has risen fast, but just because China has done well does not mean that the United States is losing. Don’t blame Mr. Kissinger’s China strategy for America’s domestic problems today. Just focus on solving them.

基辛格先生是纳粹统治下的难民，对美国有着坚定不移的忠诚。他的战略是从美国利益出发的：美国在冷战中胜出，接下来多年的经济繁荣就是美国在享受和平的红利。中国当然也在迅速崛起，但中国发展的好不等于美国输了。不要把美国今天面临的内部问题怪到基辛格先生的中国战略上。应该专注于解决问题本身。

Reviewing the past helps one to understand the present, Confucius said. Re-examining Mr. Kissinger’s views about China upon his death would be a good learning exercise for American statesmen today.

孔子说，“温故而知新。”在基辛格先生去世之际回顾他的中国观，对今天的美国政治家们应该是一种不错的练习。

Mr. Kissinger was right about China and still is.

基辛格先生对中国的认知是正确的，至今如是。