纽约时报中文网 - 英文原版-英The Clock is Ticking on Improving China-US Relations Experts Say

This article is part of our special section on the DealBook Summit that included business and policy leaders from around the world.

Takeaways

• Small steps might be the best approach: Seek out areas of common interest, in the areas of the environment, climate and artificial intelligence, for instance, where the two countries can work together without appearing that either side is making concessions.

• People-to-people interactions matter: Increasing the exchange of academics, scientists and students; fostering tourism and more flights; and strengthening personal business relations all can improve communication and cultural understanding.

• Use the next 12 months: As the Chinese economy softens and a door is open for investment, the Biden Administration could score political points by announcing some major deals — perhaps Chinese purchase of American aircraft or major grain and agricultural purchases from U.S. farmers.

The longstanding economic ties between China and the United States have not brought the two countries closer together, as had been hoped. And the time to reverse the course of rising tensions and escalating conflict may be fleeting as a new era of confrontation appears to have begun.

That was the conclusion of a task force of China experts in business, government and academia convened by The New York Times at the DealBook Summit in New York last week.

Closer economic and trade relations between the U.S. and China were once thought “to help bring China into the community of nations and make our relationship stable and predictable,’’ said Peter Baker, chief White House correspondent for The New York Times, who moderated the panel. The idea was that economic ties would turn China into “an adult actor on the stage with whom we can deal.” But now, he said, many say the “theory of the case was wrong. So then, what is our goal in terms of the economic relationship at this point?”

Participants agreed that China-U.S. relations are in a period of transition and, because of their sheer size, the two powerhouses may never be able to “decouple” economically. Instead, they will have to find new modes of engagement that maintain business ties while reducing risk.

Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former U.S. trade representative in Asia, said that as trade agreements between the two countries fall by the wayside, both the U.S. and China are seeking new and different trading partners in other parts of the world, rather than turning to each other.

Chinese imports into the U.S. have been decreasing as the U.S. strengthens economic relations with other Asian exporting countries. China, as well, is seeking to become more economically self-sufficient and has been forging new connections with countries in Africa and Latin America.

“When we talk about this interdependence, it’s there,’’ said Ms. Cutler. “But the trend is that both sides are looking elsewhere and trying to lessen their dependence on each other.”

Dan Wang, a visiting scholar at Yale Law School and an expert on Beijing’s technological ambitions, said, “China’s strategy with regards to the U.S. is fairly clear and simply defined.” It is to increase China’s self-sufficiency from the rest of the world while increasing the world’s dependence on it. By contrast, he said, U.S. strategy toward China is “much more fuzzy. I can’t quite disentangle what the U.S. objective is here.”

Nor are politics within China to be ignored. “Politics precedes everything, including trade,” said Desmond Shum, a technological and financial entrepreneur and author of “Red Roulette: An Insider’s Story of Wealth, Power, Corruption, and Vengeance in Today’s China,” a best-selling memoir. President Xi Jinping “really changed the politics of China over the last decade and you know everything else radiates from that. To separate politics, whether it’s the geopolitical or international politics or China’s domestic policy from trade, it’s probably not practical or even a possible or relevant approach,’’ he said.

In the short run, Mr. Shum sees that softness in the Chinese economy may create an opportunity for investors in the next 12 months. He pointed to Mr. Xi’s pro-business speeches at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in San Francisco last month as a positive signal.

“The Chinese economy, by all measures, is in a very difficult situation,” Mr. Shum said. “And next year is not going to be easier. "

As a result, he said, “China will be a lot more conciliatory, more approachable,” adding that Mr. Xi’s message in San Francisco was: “We are open for business. Please come in.’’

But Jing Tsu, professor of East Asian Studies and Comparative Literature at Yale and an expert on Chinese culture, said a year is not enough time to right relations.

“One key word is trust,” she said. “How, with the U.S., given all this skepticism, what kind of basis would there be for trust? Or are we redefining our conception of trust?”

The trust divide also extends to the Chinese people, she said. “Do they trust the government to step in and do the right thing? Chinese people are voting with their feet. They are putting their investments in U.S. dollars, not [the Chinese currency]RMB.’’

“So the question is: How can China both stop that internal bleeding, which is actually going on, and, at the same time, entice foreign companies to come in and do business? That’s actually really hard.”

Kirsten Hillman, Canadian ambassador to the United States who negotiated trade agreements with China, said that business ties are key to a free flow of communication that can foster better military and geopolitical relations — or at least prevent blunders. Trade policy and national security issues, she added, are intertwined.

“We’re in a moment where we are saying, OK, certain trade should flow freely,’’ said Ms. Hillman. “And that’s good because communications among nations and relationships are important for peace and stability and in just making sure that mistakes don’t happen.”

One area of concern is China’s muscle-flexing in the South China Sea. To counterbalance it, the U.S. and its allies, like Canada, are reaching out to other countries in the Indo-Pacific region as potential allies. Yet, this effort may need a clearer vision, said Ms. Hillman.

“There isn’t a clear message from the U. S., or the rest of us saying, ‘Here is an economic proposition. Here is why we think that working with us is going to be good for you in the long term. And here is what flows from that,’” she said. “Like who is a friend, right? Why are they a friend? What are the benefits of being a friend? What are the risks of not being a friend? “

The discussion also veered into larger geopolitical issues — mainly Taiwan and the war in Ukraine. Rana Mitter, ST Lee chair in U.S.-Asia Relations, Harvard Kennedy School, and a British historian specializing in China, said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine cannot be compared to China’s ambitions for Taiwan. He does not imagine China would use military force, he said, as Russia did, to impose its will. Rather, China would try to undermine Taiwan by influencing its internal politics, whether by social media, economics or other nonviolent means.

Right now, Mr. Mitter said, Chinese-Russian relations are “something of a sweet spot” for China, with the war in Ukraine potentially providing reconstruction opportunities for China. China may also be serving as a brake on Putin’s actions in Ukraine.

“The very strong sense that I get is that the one thing that is almost certainly a red line for Beijing is allowing Putin to use nuclear weapons,” he said. “And I would be very, very unsurprised to hear that there had been an intimate, but very, very firm conversation between Xi Jinping and Putin on that matter.”

Moderator: Peter Baker, chief White House correspondent, The New York Times

Participants: Wendy Cutler, vice president, Asia Society Policy Institute; Kirsten Hillman, Canadian ambassador to the U.S.; Rana Mitter, professor of U.S.-Asia Relations, Harvard Kennedy School; Desmond Shum, investor and author;Jing Tsu, East Asian languages and literature professor, Yale; Dan Wang, visiting scholar, Yale Law School; Ravi Mattu, managing editor, DealBook, The New York Times