纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英穆迪下调中国评级展望从稳定降至负面

In another blow to China’s economy, the credit ratings agency Moody’s said Tuesday that it had issued a negative outlook for the Chinese government’s financial health.

周二，信用评级机构穆迪对中国政府的财政健康状况发出了负面展望评级，这给中国经济带来了又一次打击。

Moody’s expressed concern at the potential cost to the national government of bailing out debt-burdened regional and local governments and state-owned businesses. Moody’s, which previously viewed China’s finances as stable, warned that the country’s economy is settling into slower growth while its enormous property sector has begun to shrink.

穆迪对中央政府向地区和地方政府以及国有企业提供财政支持的潜在成本表示担忧。穆迪此前对中国财政的展望评级为稳定，如今该机构警告称，中国的经济增速正在放缓，而其庞大的房地产行业也开始萎缩。

China’s Ministry of Finance immediately pushed back, saying that the Chinese economy is resilient and that local government budgets could withstand their loss of revenue from the country’s real estate downturn.

中国财政部立即予以反驳，称中国经济有巨大的发展韧性，地方政府预算可以承受因房地产市场下行而造成的财政收入减少。

At the same time, Moody’s reaffirmed its overall A1 credit rating for the Chinese government, which is roughly in the middle of the scale of what’s considered “investment grade” or generally low risk. A negative outlook on a credit rating is not necessarily soon followed by a downgrade, but it serves as a caution that the existing rating may not be sustainable.

与此同时，穆迪确认中国政府的总体信用评级为“A1”，大致处于“投资级”或总体风险较低的中间水平。信用评级的负面展望不一定导致迅速降级，但这是对现有评级可能无法持续的一种警告。

The lowering of the credit outlook nonetheless marks an important milestone for China’s economy.

不管怎样，信用评级展望的下调对中国经济来说仍是一件大事。

Until recently, China had seemingly unlimited money to spend on the world’s largest bullet train network, a vast military buildup, subsidies to manufacturers and extensive overseas construction projects.

直到最近，中国似乎都有取之不尽的资金用于全球最大高铁网络的建设、大规模军事扩张、补贴制造商和大量海外工程项目。

Today China faces increasingly serious budget constraints, triggered mainly by a steep slide in the real estate sector. The construction of apartments, factories, office towers and other projects has been the country’s largest industry, accounting for 25 percent of economic output. Apartments are also the main investment for most households, accounting for three-fifths or more of their savings.

如今，中国的预算限制日益严峻，这主要由房地产行业的急剧下滑所导致。住房、工厂、写字楼等项目的建设曾构成中国规模最大的产业，占到经济产出的25%。住房也是大多数家庭的主要投资，占到其储蓄的五分之三或更多。

While borrowing by China’s national government has been limited, local and regional governments and state-owned enterprises have borrowed heavily for the last 15 years. The money the local governments pulled in from lenders has generated high economic growth, but many of them are now in serious trouble.

虽然中央政府的借贷规模有限，但地方政府和国有企业在过去15年间背上了沉重的债务。地方政府从信贷机构获得的资金推动了经济的高速增长，但现在许多都陷入了严重困境。

For China, the change in the credit outlook will have little direct effect on its finances. Unlike many countries, China relies very little on overseas borrowing. The national government mainly sells bonds to the country’s state-owned banks. The country’s regional and local governments and state-owned enterprises also sell bonds to them.

对中国而言，信用展望评级的变化对财政产生的直接影响是微乎其微的。与许多国家不同，中国很少依赖海外贷款。中央政府主要向国有银行出售债券。中国地区和地方政府及国有企业也会向这些银行发债。

Beijing had emphasized China’s economic leadership during the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, when the American housing market suffered a sharp correction. Now China faces a similar and possibly larger housing downturn. Dozens of large real estate developers are insolvent and unable to finish hundreds of thousands of apartments for which they had already accepted large deposits.

在2008年和2009年全球金融危机期间，美国房地产市场经历了信用评级的大幅调整，而北京则明确了中国的经济领导地位。而今，中国面临的楼市下行与当时的美国十分类似，波及面可能更广。大量房地产开发商资不抵债，已经收了大笔定金的无数公寓出现烂尾。

Developers have left behind hundreds of billions of dollars in overdue bills to small businesses and other contractors, triggering a cascade of payment troubles. With the exception of a few state-owned businesses, developers have mostly stopped buying land for future housing construction.

开发商拖欠小企业和其他承包商的款项高达数以十亿计美元，引发了大量偿付问题。除了少数国企，开发商基本都已停止拿地用于未来的住房建设。

Land sales had been the main source of revenue for local governments. Many of them now face a crisis as their revenue from these sales has plummeted. In its statement on Tuesday, Moody’s said that the national government will likely have to help these governments cope.

卖地一直是地方政府财政收入的主要来源。许多地方如今陷入危机就是因为他们从卖地中获取的收入大幅下降。穆迪在周二的声明中表示，中央可能必须出手帮助地方应对危机。

Difficulties in the real estate sector have dragged down economic growth, have contributed to high youth unemployment and have left many families leery of spending money.

房地产行业的困境拖累了经济增长，致使青年失业率高居不下，也让许多家庭的消费变得十分谨慎。

“The outlook change also reflects the increased risks related to structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth and the ongoing downsizing of the property sector,” Moody’s said.

“评级展望调整还反映出，与结构性、持续性的中期经济增长放缓和正在萎缩的房地产行业相关的风险不断增加，”穆迪表示。

China’s Ministry of Finance rejected Moody’s arguments. It said that while local government revenues from land sales had fallen, the same governments are also spending less to compensate residents whose homes are bulldozed to make way for new buildings. The ministry also asserted that China’s economy still has considerable momentum.

中国财政部对穆迪的判断表示反对。财政部宣称，虽然地方政府通过土地出让获得的财政收入减少，但用于拆迁补偿等支出也在相应减少。财政部还强调称，中国经济仍保持了回升向好的态势。

China is not alone in being on the receiving end of Moody’s concerns. The agency lowered its credit outlook for the United States to negative last month while reaffirming the country’s top level AAA rating.

中国并不是唯一被穆迪发出警示的国家。该机构上个月将美国的信用展望评级下调至负面，同时确认美国的整体评级为最高的“AAA”水平。

Overall debt is now higher in China, relative to the size of its economy, than in the United States.

相对于经济规模而言，中国目前的总体债务高于美国。

China’s credit rating was last downgraded in 2017 by both Moody’s and S&P Global Ratings. More recently, S&P has expressed less concern than Moody’s about China’s economy. Several hours before the Moody’s announcement on Tuesday, S&P said that it believed China could avoid replicating Japan’s “lost decade” of weak economic activity following its housing slump in the early 1990s.

中国的信用评级上一次被穆迪和标普全球评级下调是在2017年。近段时间，标普对中国经济的担忧程度要低于穆迪。在穆迪周二宣布下调评级的几小时前，标普宣称相信中国可以避免重蹈日本“失去十年”的覆辙，指的是日本在上世纪90年代初楼市暴跌后经历的经济活动疲软。

Fitch Ratings told Bloomberg television earlier this year that it might reconsider China’s sovereign bond credit score, but recently affirmed that rating with a stable outlook.

惠誉评级今年早些时候向彭博电视表示，可能会考虑重新调整中国的主权债券信用评级，但该机构最近确认了中国的展望评级为稳定。

The Chinese economy has endured a bumpy emergence this year from nearly three years of stringent “zero Covid” measures, including many of the world’s longest and strictest municipal lockdowns.

经过近三年严格的“新冠清零”措施（包括许多堪称全球最长、最严厉的封城）之后，今年中国经济的恢复之路十分坎坷。

The economy grew at an annual pace of 5.3 percent from July through September. A debt-fueled surge in investments by manufacturers and fairly robust spending at restaurants and hotels offset a fall in apartment construction.

中国在7至9月的年增长率为5.3%。由债务推动的制造业投资激增，加之餐饮酒店领域相对强劲的消费，抵消了住房建设的下滑。

Data for October and November has been mixed. Investment remains strong in new factories that make electric cars and other advanced products. But the arrival of cold weather has brought a wave of respiratory illnesses across much of China, initially among children but also among adults. This has emptied many restaurants and other service-sector venues.

10月和11月的数据好坏参半。对制造电动汽车和其他高科技产品的新工厂，投资依然强劲。但天气转冷后，中国大部分地区暴发了呼吸道疾病，最初感染群体是儿童，但也波及到成人。这导致许多餐馆和服务业场所门庭冷落。

Moody’s said that the vast size of the Chinese economy, which is the world’s second largest after the United States, gave it considerable capacity to absorb shocks. The finance ministry agreed, saying that, “long-term positive fundamentals have not changed, and it will remain an important engine for global economic growth in the future.”

穆迪表示，作为仅次于美国的全球第二大经济体，中国规模庞大的经济具备了相当强大的抗冲击能力。财政部认可了这一说法，称中国经济“长期向好的基本面没有改变，未来仍将是全球经济增长的重要引擎”。