The Guardian - China-Moodys cuts China credit outlook to negative as economy slows
December 5, 2023 3 min 560 words
这篇报道揭示了中国面临的经济困境，引发了对中国主权债券的评级下调。Moody's认为中国经济放缓和房地产危机将对政府债务偿还产生不利影响，可能需要北京救助陷入债务困境的地方政府和国有企业。报告强调了房地产行业危机对中国经济增长的结构性冲击，这可能超过预期，对经济增长率构成更大拖累。此外，报告指出，中国经济复苏失去动力，2024年和2025年的年均增长率预期较之前10年的6%到7%平均水平明显下降。尽管Moody's仍然维持A1的信用评级，但将其展望下调为负面，显示了对未来信用评级降低的担忧。这一评级变动引发了全球对中国经济债务水平的深切担忧。总体而言，这篇报道描绘了一个严峻的经济局面，突显了中国在应对房地产危机和债务问题上面临的重大挑战。
China’s ability to repay its government borrowing has been downgraded by the credit rating agency Moody’s, which said the ripple effects from a crisis in the property sector would undermine efforts to revive its flagging economy.
Moody’s warned that Beijing would need to bail out local and regional governments and state-owned enterprises that were struggling with rising debts, hampering efforts to boost investment and growth.
The rating agency downgraded its outlook for Chinese sovereign bonds from stable to negative on Tuesday, sending a signal to potential lenders that the risk of a default by Beijing has increased over the past year.
China’s finance ministry said it was “disappointed” with Moody’s decision when the economy was on the mend. It said the agency’s concerns were “unnecessary” when the recovery “has been advancing steadily”.
The world’s second-biggest economy had been slowing before a 2020 crackdown on excessive borrowing that followed a series of debt defaults by dozens of property developers.
Without the revenues from rising real estate values and property transactions, local government finances have come under pressure. State enterprises that need loans to fund expansion have struggled to access credit from lenders affected by growing property defaults.
On Monday, the property developer Evergrande was granted an extension until late January to try to restructure its debts and avoid liquidation.
Once the largest developer in China, the company reportedly owes more than $300bn (£237bn), much of it to individuals whose properties were never built.
Moody’s said the need for government intervention to support banks and local governments poses “broad downside risks to China’s fiscal, economic and institutional strength. The outlook change also reflects the increased risks related to structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth.”
The changes in the property sector represent “a major structural shift in China’s growth drivers”, and could be a more significant drag to overall economic growth rate than expected, it said.
Factors such as “weaker demographics”, as the population ages, will probably drive a decline in potential growth to about 3.5% by 2030, Moody’s said.
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China’s bounce back from the Covid-19 pandemic has faltered this year after an initial burst of activity – in part from bumper exports of coal to replace banned Russian gas – faded faster than expected.
The credit rating agency said it expects China’s economy to grow at a 4% annual pace in 2024 and 2025, well below the 6% to 7% average in the 10 years before the pandemic.
Moody’s move underscores deepening global concerns about the level of debt in the world’s second-largest economy.
It maintained China’s credit rating at A1, which is its fifth-highest rating – the top “upper medium grade” – meaning China comfortably held on to its “investment grade” score. But lowering the outlook is a sign that the credit rating could be cut in future.
Shares retreated in China on Tuesday, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropping 1.9% and the Shanghai Composite down 1.7%.