纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英金条外币东京公寓中国资金是如何大规模外流的

Affluent Chinese have moved hundreds of billions of dollars out of the country this year, seizing on the end of Covid precautions that had almost completely sealed China’s borders for nearly three years.

趁着几乎完全封锁中国边境近三年的新冠防范措施结束之际，富裕的中国人今年已将数千亿美元转移出境。

They are using their savings to buy overseas apartments, stocks and insurance policies. Able to fly again to Tokyo, London and New York, Chinese travelers have bought apartments in Japan and poured money into accounts in the United States or Europe that pay higher interest than in China, where rates are low and falling.

他们用存款购买海外公寓、股票和保险。由于可以再次飞往东京、伦敦和纽约，中国游客在日本购买公寓，并把钱存入利率高于中国的美欧账户，目前中国的利率很低，而且还在下降。

The outbound shift of money in part indicates unease inside China about the sputtering recovery after the pandemic as well as deeper problems, like an alarming slowdown in real estate, the main storehouse of wealth for families. For some people, it is also a reaction to fears about the direction of the economy under China’s leader, Xi Jinping, who has cracked down on business and strengthened the government’s hand in many aspects of society.

资金外流在一定程度上表明，中国国内对疫情后复苏乏力以及更深层次的问题感到不安，比如作为家庭财富主要来源的房地产市场出现了令人担忧的放缓。对一些人来说，这也是因为对中国领导人习近平治下经济走向感到担忧，习近平打击商业活动，加强了政府对社会许多方面的控制。

In some cases, Chinese are improvising to get around China’s strict government controls on transferring money overseas. They have bought gold bars small enough to be scattered unobtrusively through carry-on luggage, as well as large stacks of foreign currency.

在某些情况下，中国人随机应变，以绕过中国政府对向海外转移资金的严格控制。他们购买了小到可以不起眼地分散在随身行李中的金条，以及大量外币。

Real estate is an option, too. Chinese have emerged as the main buyers of Tokyo apartments costing $3 million or more, and they often pay with suitcases of cash, said Zhao Jie, the chief executive of Shenjumiaosuan, an online real estate listing service in Tokyo. “It’s really hard work to count this kind of cash.”

房地产也是一个选择。东京一家在线房地产上市服务公司“神居秒算”的首席执行官赵杰（音）说，中国人已经成为东京300万美元或以上公寓的主要买家，他们经常带着一箱箱现金付款。“清点这么多现金真的很累。”

Before the pandemic, he said, Chinese buyers typically bought Tokyo studio apartments for $330,000 or less to rent out. Now they are buying much larger units and obtaining investment visas to relocate their families.

他说，在疫情暴发之前，中国买家通常以33万美元或更低的价格购买东京的一室公寓出租。现在，他们正在购买更大的房子，并获得投资签证，举家搬迁而来。

All told, an estimated $50 billion a month has been taken out of China this year, mainly by Chinese households and private-sector companies.

据估计，今年每月有500亿美元资金流出中国，主要来自中国家庭和私营企业。

Experts said the pace of money leaving China probably did not pose an imminent risk to the country’s $17 trillion economy, in large part because exports of many of the country’s key manufactured goods are strong, returning a steady stream of cash.

专家表示，资金外流的速度可能不会对中国17万亿美元的经济构成迫在眉睫的风险，这在很大程度上是因为中国许多关键制成品的出口强劲，带来了稳定的现金流。

A broader move by families to send their savings elsewhere could be cause for alarm. Large-scale money outflows have set off financial crises in recent decades in Latin America, Southeast Asia and even China itself, in late 2015 and early 2016.

如果有更多家庭将储蓄转移到其他地方，这可能会引起警惕。近几十年来，大规模资金外流在拉丁美洲、东南亚，甚至在2015年底和2016年初在中国引发了金融危机。

So far, the Chinese government is indicating that it believes it has the situation under control. Money sluicing out of China has weakened the currency, the renminbi, against the dollar and other currencies. And that weakness of the renminbi has helped sustain China’s exports, which support tens of millions of Chinese jobs.

到目前为止，中国政府表示，相信局势已经得到控制。流出中国的资金削弱了人民币对美元和其他货币的汇率。人民币的疲软有助于维持中国的出口，而出口支撑着中国数千万的就业岗位。

The flow of money out of China “is very manageable,” said Wang Dan, the chief economist for China in the Shanghai office of Hang Seng Bank.

流出中国的资金“非常可控”，恒生银行上海办事处的中国首席经济学家王丹说。

Chinese policymakers are still relying on some of the limits on taking money out of the country that they imposed to stem the currency crisis eight years ago. Other restrictions imposed then, like scrutinizing exports and imports to catch disguised schemes for international money transfers, were allowed to lapse and have not been reimposed this year even as money outflows have resumed.

中国的政策制定者仍然依赖于八年前为遏制货币危机而实施的一些限制措施。当时实施的其他限制措施，如审查进出口以发现伪装的国际资金转移计划，已经任其失效，尽管今年再次出现资金外流，也没有重新实施。

The movement of money out of China has roughly matched the money brought in by the country’s large trade surpluses. To the dismay of many countries elsewhere, particularly in Europe, China is exporting rising numbers of solar panels, electric cars and other advanced products even as it has replaced more imports with domestic production.

流出中国的资金大致与中国巨额贸易顺差带来的资金相当。令其他许多国家（尤其是欧洲国家）感到沮丧的是，中国出口的太阳能电池板、电动汽车和其他先进产品的数量不断增加，尽管欧洲已用国内生产取代了更多进口。

The renminbi fell in value earlier this year to its lowest level in 16 years. It hovered around 7.3 to the dollar for much of the past two months, before climbing somewhat in the last week.

今年早些时候，人民币跌至16年来的最低水平。在过去两个月的大部分时间里，美元兑人民币徘徊在7.3左右，上周才有所回落。

The surge of money out of China that occurred eight years ago was caused by a stock market crash and a botched attempt to devalue the currency in a controlled way. China’s central bank had to spend as much as $100 billion a month of its reserves of foreign money to prop up the renminbi.

八年前，中国出现了资金外流潮，原因是股市崩盘，以及政府试图以可控方式让人民币贬值的尝试失败。中国央行不得不每月动用多达1000亿美元的外汇储备来支撑人民币。

By contrast, China appears to have spent around $15 billion a month since midsummer to stabilize its currency, according to central bank data. “There’s nothing to suggest it is disorderly,” said Brad Setser, an international finance specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations. “The scale of pressure is still much smaller than in 2015 or 2016.”

相比之下，根据央行数据，自夏中以来中国似乎每个月要用大约150亿美元稳定其货币。“看不出有什么不正常的地方，”外交关系协会的国际金融专家布拉德·塞瑟说。“压力水平目前还远不及2015或2016的时候。”

The outflows in 2015 and 2016 reflected efforts by big state-owned companies to shift large sums of money overseas. The government holds tighter political control over those companies today, and there has been no sign of a similar rush for the exits by them.

2015和2016年的资金外流源于大型国企在将大笔资金转移到海外。如今政府对这些公司加强了政治控制，已经看不到有类似的流动了。

Instead, private companies and households in China have been moving money overseas. But much of people’s wealth is tied up in real estate, which cannot be easily sold.

现在是中国的私营企业和家庭在向海外转移资金。不过由于财富很大程度上是跟房地产捆绑的，出售并非易事。

At the same time, illegal money exchange businesses in Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities that used to convert renminbi into dollars and other foreign currencies were closed by police raids eight years ago.

与此同时，上海、深圳等等城市的那些原本可以将人民币兑换成美元等外币的非法兑换业务，也已经在八年前被警方取缔。

And regulators have shut almost all gambling tours to Macau, a separately administered Chinese territory. These junkets allowed wealthy Chinese to buy casino chips with renminbi, gamble some of them on baccarat or roulette and then convert the rest into dollars.

监管机构已经关闭了几乎所有前往澳门的赌博游途径，那里是中国的一个独立管理的地区。赌博游曾经让富有的中国人可以用人民币买筹码，拿出一部分玩百家乐纸牌或轮盘赌，然后把剩下的转成美元提出。

Beijing has also banned most overseas investments in hotels, office towers and other assets of little geopolitical value. The architect of China’s foreign investment curbs, Pan Gongsheng, was promoted in July to become governor of the central bank, the People’s Bank of China.

北京还禁止在海外对酒店、办公楼等缺乏地缘政治价值的资产进行投资。中国的对外投资限制措施的制定者潘功胜已于7月升任中国人民银行行长。

But households and companies are still managing to send money overseas.

然而家庭和企业仍然有办法把资金转到海外。

On a recent afternoon, Bank of China and China Merchants Bank branches in the mainland were selling gold bars for 7 percent more than their affiliated banks in adjacent Hong Kong. That price difference indicates that inside China, demand is high for gold, which can be readily moved out of the country.

近日的一个下午，中国银行和中国招商银行在大陆的分行给出的金条价格，比它们在香港的分行要高7%。这种价差表明国内对易于转往国外的黄金需求高。

Another trick that mainlanders are using to get money out of China is opening bank accounts in Hong Kong and then wiring money to buy insurance products that resemble bank certificates of deposit. According to the Hong Kong Insurance Authority, the premiums for new insurance policies sold to mainlanders visiting Hong Kong were 21.3 percent higher in the first half of this year than in the first half of 2019, after nearly disappearing during the pandemic.

大陆人还有一个把资金转出中国的办法，就是到香港的银行开户，然后将钱款汇入该户头，用于购买类似银行存款证的保险产品。据香港保监会的数据，今年上半年，前往香港的大陆人购买新保单的费用，比2019年上半年高出了21.3%，在大流行期间，这种销售几乎绝迹。

At a Bank of China branch on Hong Kong’s Kowloon peninsula, mainlanders were waiting on a recent morning at 7:30 to open accounts, 90 minutes before the bank was set to open. The line was so long by 8 a.m. that anyone arriving later was lucky to reach the front of the line before the end of the workday, said Valerius Luo, a Hong Kong insurance agent.

近日一个早晨，中国银行位于香港九龙的一家分行早上7:30就有大陆人在排队等待开户了，距离银行开门还有90分钟。香港保险经纪瓦莱里乌斯·罗说，排队的人实在太多，如果8点之后才赶到，能不能在银行下班前排到就得看运气了。

Families are then typically putting $30,000 to $50,000 in U.S. currency into insurance products, several times more than before, as they search for safe places to park their savings, Mr. Luo said. “There are still people with powerful capital,” he said, “and they want an investment package that preserves value.“

一般家庭会用3到5万的美元购买保险产品，这比之前要多出了几倍，罗先生说他们是在寻找安全的地方存放自己的积蓄。“还有一些人手上有雄厚的资本，”他说，“他们要的是一个可以保值的投资方案。”