The Economist-Will China save the planet or destroy it China

Today China is an industrial powerhouse, home to over a quarter of the world’s manufacturing—more than America and Germany combined. But its progress has come at a cost in terms of emissions. Over the past three decades China has pumped more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, in total, than any other country (see chart 1). It now emits over a quarter of the world’s greenhouse gases each year, according to Rhodium Group, a research firm. That is about twice as much as America, which comes second (though on a per-person basis America is still worse).

Much, then, depends on China if the world is to keep global warming since the Industrial Revolution well below 2°C, as governments pledged at the UN’s annual climate summit in 2015. When those governments gather in Dubai for this year’s summit, which opens on November 30th, China will have both good and bad news for them.

On the positive side, China’s emissions will soon stop rising. Some analysts think they will top out this year. There is little doubt that the peak will come before 2030, which is the goal China has set for itself. It is building nuclear power stations faster than any other country. It has also invested heavily in renewable energy (see chart 2), such that it now has around 750 gigawatts of wind and solar generating capacity, about a third of the world’s total. By the end of the decade the government aims to have 1,200 gigawatts of such capacity, more than the total power capacity of the European Union at the moment. China will probably well exceed that target.

But it is not just China’s embrace of renewable energy that is helping it curb emissions. Its production of carbon-intensive steel and cement has been dropping. After decades of building roads and railways, the government is splurging less on big infrastructure projects. A long expansion of the property sector has ended in a meltdown that has shaken the economy—but led to fewer emissions. Going forward, few analysts expect China’s GDP to grow as fast as it did at the end of last century and the beginning of this one. Put another way, China’s dirtiest phase of development is probably behind it.

Another mountain to climb

More important than the peak, though, is what happens next. China has pledged to eliminate net emissions of greenhouse gases (or to become “carbon neutral”) by 2060. Analysts think this will be a much harder target to hit. Even after that massive injection of renewables, dirty coal still supplies about 55% of China’s energy. That’s down from 70% in 2011, but the amount of coal China burns continues to increase, as demand for electricity rises. Last year China mined a record 4.5bn tonnes of coal and approved around two new coal-fired power plants for construction every week on average.

China’s power grid was built with coal in mind. At plants that burn the stuff, humans decide when to ramp things up or down. But when it comes to solar and wind power, nature is the boss. So the grid needs to be made more flexible. When there is a surplus of energy in one spot, it must be able to store it or move it elsewhere. Otherwise China will not be able to accommodate lots of new wind turbines and solar panels in the future.

Most countries need to make similar changes to their grids. The challenge facing China, though, is unique, says David Fishman of the Lantau Group, an energy consultancy. The bulk of the country’s solar and wind resources are in the west. But the power they generate is needed mostly in the east, where the country’s biggest cities are located. Transferring it such long distances is tricky. Another problem is that provincial governments have a lot of say over how their portion of the grid operates. They don’t like depending on each other for energy. So, for example, a province might choose to use its own coal plant over a cleaner energy source located elsewhere.

Those who are concerned about China’s progress also worry about methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Some countries can cut their methane emissions in simple ways, such as by repairing leaky gas pipes. But most of the methane coming from China wafts out of coal mines or is produced by microbes in rice paddies. Fixing the problem is hard without closing mines or changing farming practices. So at the UN climate summit in 2021, China refused to join more than 100 other countries, including America, which pledged to reduce global methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030. China has said that it would address the issue in its national climate plan for 2035, which may not be published for another two years.

In the face of these challenges, China’s leaders must be bold. But their climate ambitions may have already peaked, says Li Shuo, the incoming director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York. He believes power cuts caused by surging coal prices and droughts, which disrupt hydropower, have spooked officials in recent years. Now they worry that climate-friendly policies will undermine the country’s energy security (green types argue that some reforms, such as making the grid more flexible, would have the opposite effect). Mr Li expects China’s emissions to plateau rather than decline.