纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英IMF对中国金融和房地产业风险发出警告

The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday of risks posed by China’s financial and property sectors even as it took a more optimistic view on the country’s economic growth.

尽管国际货币基金组织（以下简称IMF）对中国经济增长持更乐观看法，但它还是在周二对该国金融及房地产行业存在的风险发出了警告。

The I.MF. forecast that China’s economy will expand 5.4 percent this year and 4.6 percent in 2024. Each estimate was 0.4 percentage points higher than the fund had predicted four weeks earlier.

IMF预测中国经济今年将增长5.4%，并在2024年增长4.6%。这两项预期都比该组织四周前的预测高出0.4%个百分点。

Gita Gopinath, the first deputy managing director of the fund, said at a news conference in Beijing that the changes reflected stronger economic performance than expected from July through September and recent efforts by Beijing to stimulate the economy. China said two weeks ago it would issue nearly $140 billion worth of bonds to pay for repairing damage from flooding last summer, as well as programs to improve the country’s resilience to climate change.

该组织第一副总裁姬塔·戈皮纳特在北京的新闻发布会上表示，这些变化反映了7月至9月中国的经济表现强于预期，以及北京最近为刺激经济所作的努力。中国两周前宣布将发行近一万亿元的国债，用于今夏洪涝灾后重建和提升国家应对气候变化能力的项目。

But Ms. Gopinath voiced worries about China’s housing sector, which faces falling prices and sales as well as loan defaults by leading developers.

但戈皮纳特表达了对中国房地产行业的担忧，该行业房价和销售额均不断下跌，规模最大的一些开发商也出现了贷款违约。

“It’s very essential to deal with the issues in the property sector, which remains quite weak,” she said.

“房地产依然相当疲弱，解决该行业的问题至关重要，”她说。

The fund released a summary of its annual assessment of the Chinese economy and financial system. It called for China to allow battered developers with no chance of turning themselves around to exit the industry. China has allowed developers that are effectively insolvent to stay in business, a practice that can impede the sector’s recovery.

IMF发布了对中国经济和金融体系的年度评估摘要。该组织呼吁中国允许遭受重创、没有可能改善经营情况的开发商退出这个行业。中国让已经资不抵债的开发商继续经营的做法可能会阻碍房地产行业的复苏。

Ms. Gopinath said that hopes earlier this year for a recovery in the housing market had already been thwarted by a second dip in the sector.

戈皮纳特表示，今年早些时候楼市复苏的希望已经因该行业的第二波衰退而受挫。

Zhang Qingsong, a deputy governor of China’s central bank, acknowledged at a financial conference in Hong Kong on Tuesday that the real estate sector had stumbled.

中国央行副行长张青松周二在香港举行的金融会议上承认，房地产行业已陷入困境。

“We need to carefully manage its pace to avoid sharp downturns and unintended consequences,” Mr. Zhang said. “We have rolled out many measures to stabilize the property market.”

“（我们）需要谨慎管理有关过程，避免楼市急剧下滑和发生意想不到的后果，”张青松说。“今年已出台不少稳定房地产市场的政策措施。”

He called for China to find new ways to maintain economic growth. The state-controlled banking system has already ramped up lending for factory construction and other industrial investments.

他呼吁中国寻找保持经济增长的新途径。国有银行系统已经加大了对工厂建设和其他工业投资的放贷力度。

“The old model of relying on investment and the real estate sector is no longer sustainable, that is why we must take a new approach,” he said.

“严重依赖基础设施投资和房地产业的发展模式已难以持续，我们必须转变发展方式，”他说。

In Beijing, the report by the I.M.F. raised the question of whether the banking system has enough financial reserves — a worry for investors as the country’s housing sector continues to deflate.

在北京，IMF的报告对中国的银行系统是否有足够的金融储备提出了疑问，在该国房地产行业持续萎靡之际，这是投资者非常担心的问题。

“Financial stability risks are elevated and still rising, as financial institutions have lower capital buffers and growing asset quality risks,” the fund wrote.

“由于金融机构资本缓冲减少、资产质量风险不断上升，金融稳定风险很高且仍在上升，”该组织写道。

The visit by Ms. Gopinath and other senior fund officials to Beijing coincided with the release of a separate report on China’s extensive lending to developing countries.

在戈皮纳特和IMF其他高级官员访问北京期间，另一份关于中国向发展中国家发放大量贷款的报告也正式发布。

That report, by the AidData institute at William and Mary, a university in Williamsburg, Va., found that China was making extensive rescue loans to developing countries that had borrowed from Beijing before the pandemic to pay for the construction of highways, rail lines and other infrastructure.

位于弗吉尼亚州威廉斯堡市的威廉与玛丽学院下属研究机构AidData在该报告中披露，中国向发展中国家提供了大量援助贷款，这些国家在疫情前就已向北京借贷，用于公路、铁路和其他基础设施建设。

Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, defended his country’s overseas lending while saying that he did not have specific information on the AidData report. “Reasonable debt is good for economic development,” he said at a briefing after the AidData report was released. “Many countries use government debt as an important means to raise financing and leverage for economic development.”

中国外交部发言人汪文斌为该国的海外贷款辩护，并表示他没有看到AidData报告的具体内容。“合理、适度的债务有利于经济社会发展，”他在AidData报告发布后的例行记者会上表示。“许多国家都将政府债务作为筹集财政资金的重要形式和发展经济的重要杠杆。”

Also on Tuesday, China’s government said that exports fell 6.6 percent last month compared with October 2022. But half of that drop reflected a weakening of China’s currency, the renminbi, against the dollar.

中国政府也在周二宣布，上个月中国出口相较2022年10月下降了6.6%。但其中一半的跌幅反映了人民币对美元的贬值。

Economists ascribe some of the slack in China’s exports to lackluster interest in manufactured goods by households around the world that stocked up on consumer electronics, furniture and other goods during the pandemic. China’s imports rose 3 percent last month from a year earlier when measured in dollars, and twice as much when measured in renminbi.

经济学家将中国出口的疲软部分归因于全球家庭对制成品的需求减弱，后者在疫情期间已经囤积了大量消费电子产品、家具和其他商品。按美元计价，中国上个月的进口比去年同期增加了3%，按人民币计价的增幅则高出一倍。