BBC News Top Stories-Business China and Australia Frenemies who need each other
November 4, 2023 6 min 1096 words
中国和澳大利亚之间的复杂关系展示了政府在开展贸易时不一定需要互相喜欢。尽管两国之间的关系已经急剧下滑，堪域正在与华盛顿建立日益紧密的军事关系，但澳大利亚总理安东尼·阿尔班尼的中国之行显示了贸易对它们的重要性。尽管双方在近年来互相指责侵犯人权和构成国家安全威胁，公众对对方的看法也比以往更为负面，但在贸易方面，它们无法割舍彼此。2020年，它们的贸易关系达到巅峰，澳大利亚近一半的出口都销往中国。相比之下，当时约有9%的美国出口和仅5%的英国出口销往中国。这种杠杆可以成为政府表达立场的有力工具，就像2020年澳大利亚呼吁对新冠病毒起源进行独立调查一样。然而，这种强硬的举措令许多人感到惊讶，尤其是来自一个重要贸易伙伴。自那时以来，中国已经解除了许多限制。然而，澳大利亚政府的新选举有所改变，特别是与中国领导人习近平在去年巴厘岛举行的G20峰会上会面后。这一会面后，阿尔班尼表示：“当我们进行对话并能够建设性和尊重地交流时，我们总是会受益的。”他提醒澳大利亚人，与中国的贸易价值比与日本、美国和韩国的总和还要高。显然，他的政府将优先考虑正常化两个“高度互补经济体”的关系。中国的所谓经济威逼是否成功还是值得怀疑的。澳大利亚在几个方面仍然公开批评中国，但毫无疑问，由于中国的贸易限制，澳大利亚企业和工人受到了冲击。澳大利亚也有自己可以利用的杠杆，尤其是在自然资源方面。中国一直深度依赖澳大利亚的原材料来满足其庞大而不断增长的经济需求。例如，大量的铁矿石和液化天然气来自澳大利亚。恰好，这两种商品都没有受到中国的限制。中国公众可以没有澳大利亚的葡萄酒和龙虾，但在国家能够足够获取用于生产钢铁或为工厂供电的材料之前，北京知道自己不具备与澳大利亚提出要求的强大地位。然而，一些分析师认为，中国的贸易限制并没有使堪域更靠近北京，而是产生了相反的效应。一方面，中国政府开始意识到，其经济和外交措施正在将澳大利亚推向美国。北京解除贸易限制并正常化外交联系的决定旨在争取堪域远离华盛顿。其中一个目标可能是获得澳大利亚支持加入跨太平洋伙伴全面进步协定（CPTPP）。这是注定失败的跨太平洋伙伴协定（TPP）的继任者，前美国总统唐纳德·特朗普退出了该协定。迄今为止，包括澳大利亚在内的几个国家都阻止了中国加入。正如Golley教授所指出的，中国在世界上没有太多朋友。我们曾经是朋友，但现在不再是。如果你仔细思考，与美国的盟友建立强大的经济关系是有道理的。如果要愠言地说，这给了你一个机会，来挑拨我们与华盛顿的关系。鉴于与美国的紧张关系升级，中国自然不希望疏远美国的盟友。华盛顿不仅试图排除中国获得先进计算机芯片所需的技术，还在向其盟友施加压力，要求他们采取相同的行动。例如，全球一半的锂都存在于澳大利亚。中国企业希望获得这类对制造电动汽车至关重要的金属，而中国目前是全球领先的电动汽车生产国。然而，正如Golley教授所指出的，澳大利亚和中国在需要共同合作的问题上可能会成为“竞争对手而非合作伙伴”。这些问题包括应对气候变化。澳大利亚与美国的政治和军事关系密切，这意味着它将不可避免地站在超级大国争夺的一边。但与一个其经济政策
China and Australia are proof that governments do not have to like each other to do business.
When Anthony Albanese arrives in China on Saturday, he will be the first Australian prime minister to visit in seven years.
His three-day trip comes in the wake of plummeting relations between the two countries - and Canberra's growing military ties with Washington.
In recent years Australia and China have accused each other over human rights violations and perceived threats to national security. Public perceptions of the other side are more negative than they have ever been.
But when it comes to trade, they cannot afford to let go of each other. At the peak of their trading relationship in 2020, almost half of Australia's exports went to China.
By way of comparison, at around the same time roughly 9% of all US exports and only 5% of British exports were being sold to China.
This kind of leverage can be a powerful tool if a government wants to make a point, which is what happened in 2020 when Australia called for an independent inquiry into the origins of Covid-19.
"That was deeply upsetting to the Chinese government," said Jane Golley, an economist at the Australian National University (ANU) in Canberra.
"Shortly after, the [Chinese] ambassador here gave a speech and suggested that some Australian industries might suffer as a consequence."
Sure enough, a string of Chinese tariffs and restrictions followed on an estimated $20bn (£16.4bn) worth of Australian goods. Among the many products affected were barley, beef, wine, coal, timber and lobster.
"Basically the Chinese government was sending a message. They were unhappy with the Australian government and decided to use economic coercion to make that point," Professor Golley added.
At the time, such a robust move from an important trading partner was a surprise to many. Since then, China has reversed many of the restrictions.
The decision to row back on the tariffs was, at least partly, helped by a change of tack from the newly elected Australian government.
Shortly after meeting with China's leader Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Bali last year, Mr Albanese said: "We're always going to be better off when we have dialogue and are able to talk constructively and respectfully".
He reminded Australians that trade with China was worth more than with Japan, the US and South Korea combined. Clearly, normalising relations between what he called "two highly complementary economies" would be a priority for his government.
Whether China's so-called economic coercion was successful is doubtful. Australia is still openly critical of Beijing on several fronts - but there is no question that Australian businesses and workers took a hit because of China's trade restrictions.
"We can't live without them, essentially," Professor Golley said. "I think the Albanese government clearly decided that our economic links were too important to sacrifice and went for an improvement in our diplomacy."
Australia has its own levers it can use to its advantage - especially when it comes to natural resources.
"China and Australia are deeply economically interdependent," said Benjamin Herscovitch, a research fellow at the ANU's National Security College.
Typically, China has been, and still is, highly reliant on Australia for raw materials to satisfy its vast and growing economy.
Huge amounts of its iron ore and liquefied natural gas, for example, come from Australia. Incidentally, neither of these commodities were subjected to Chinese restrictions.
The Chinese public can live without Australian wine and lobsters, but until the country is able to adequately source materials to make steel or power its factories, Beijing knows it is not in a strong position to start making demands of Australia.
Some analysts argue that China's trade restrictions were not forcing Canberra closer to Beijing - rather they had the opposite effect.
"The Chinese government started to realise that its coercive economic and diplomatic measures were driving Australia closer to the United States," said Mr Herscovitch.
"Beijing's decision to remove trade restrictions and normalise diplomatic contact is aimed at wooing Canberra away from Washington."
One aim could be to gain Australian support for entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
This is the successor to the doomed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) - the free trade agreement from which then-US President Donald Trump withdrew. So far several countries, including Australia, have blocked China's attempts to join.
"To be blunt, China doesn't have that many friends in the world. We used to be one, but not anymore," Professor Golley said. "If you think about it, it makes sense to have a strong economic relationship with an ally of the United States. If you're being cynical, it gives you an opportunity to drive a wedge between us and Washington."
Given the heightened tensions with the US, it makes sense that China does not want to alienate America's allies.
Not only is Washington trying to exclude China from access to technology needed for advanced computer chips and critical minerals needed for green energy, it is also putting pressure on its allies to do the same.
Half of the world's lithium, for example, is in Australia. Chinese companies want access to such metals that are crucial for making electric vehicles, a field in which China is currently the global leader.
According to Professor Golley, there is a danger that Australia and China become "competitors rather than collaborators" when it comes to issues they need to work together on, such as fighting climate change.
Australia's close political and military ties with the US mean it will inevitably fall on the American side of the superpower struggle.
But siding with a country whose economic policies actively harm China will only put more strain on the relationship and could risk landing both countries back at square one.
"I don't know how much longer this can continue", said Professor Golley. "The Australian government wants a relationship with China in which, basically, we continue to export to them as normal."
"But at the same time we also diversify away from them and restrict their capital flows into the country. To me, that sounds like we want to have our cake and eat it too."