Reuters-Apples holiday-quarter forecast faces threat from Huawei weak China market
November 1, 2023 3 min 593 words
这篇报道涉及苹果公司的假期季度展望受到华为崛起和中国市场的威胁。苹果正面临世界第二大经济体内不均匀的复苏和华为的激烈竞争，尤其是在中国华为新的Mate 60 Pro系列手机初期销售强劲。与此同时，苹果自家的iPhone 15系列在国际市场的表现相对疲软，据Counterpoint估计，与iPhone 14相比，最新系列在推出后的前17天内中国市场的销量下降了近5%。 苹果股价在过去三个月中下跌近14%，主要原因是担忧华为的竞争以及由于高利率导致科技股普遍回落。然而，中国经济显示出复苏迹象，上个月的数据显示，第三季度中国经济增长速度超出预期，尽管略低于第二季度的6.3%扩张，但消费和工业活动在九月份也出现了意外增长。 尽管华为在中国市场取得了成功，但这并不一定会对苹果的全球业务产生重大影响。苹果在其服务业务方面有望取得增长，估计增长率达到11.3%，这个部分近年来一直超过了苹果的硬件业务的增长。 总的来说，苹果在中国市场面临竞争压力，但公司在全球范围内的多元化业务和服务业务的强劲表现可能会有助于抵消一些风险。要关注苹果是否能够创新和改进其产品，以吸引更多的用户，维持其全球领先地位。
Apple investors will have one big question when the world's most valuable company reports earnings on Thursday - will Huawei's resurgence in China dampen its holiday-quarter expectations?
The company, which will post results for the July-September period, is grappling with an uneven recovery in the world's second-largest economy and tougher competition from Huawei after the Chinese firm's new Mate 60 Pro series phones saw strong early sales.
Apple's (AAPL.O) own iPhone 15 line-up has gotten off to a slow start in the crucial international market. Counterpoint estimates China sales of the latest series were nearly 5% lower compared with the iPhone 14 in the first 17 days after launch.
"Strength of the iPhone 15 cycle is the key question heading into the December quarter," Bernstein analysts said, adding that they expected "muted" sales of the device due to a lack of new features, strained consumer spending and competition from Huawei.
Huawei sold 1.6 million units of its Mate 60 Pro in six weeks, and brokerages such as Jefferies have said the firm could take back much of the market share in the coming years it lost to Apple after U.S. sanctions in 2019 hammered its business.
Those fears, as well as a wider pullback in tech stocks due to high interest rates, knocked Apple shares down nearly 14% in the three months to October-end, compared with the tech-heavy Nasdaq's (.IXIC) 11% decline in the same period.
But there are signs of an economic pick up in China. Data released last month showed the economy grew at a faster-than-expected clip of 4.9% in the third quarter - though less than the 6.3% expansion in the second quarter - while consumption and industrial activity also surprised on the upside in September.
The July-September period marks Apple's fiscal fourth quarter, and the company is expected to lay down a percentage target for sales growth for the October-December period - its fiscal first quarter that covers holiday-season shopping.
Wall Street analysts expect iPhone sales to rise about 6% in the October-December period, according to LSEG data. That is well below historical levels - barring 2022's holiday season quarter when Chinese COVID-19 curbs curtailed production of high-end iPhones, the average holiday quarter sales growth for the device has been 9.2% in the past four years.
However, the fiscal first-quarter projections suggest an improvement from an estimated increase of 2.8% for the three months ended September, marking the largest rise in iPhone sales since the start of this year.
Overall revenue is still expected to tick down nearly 1%, dragged by continued weakness in sales of the iPad and Mac, which are expected to fall 15% and 25%, respectively.
Apple earlier this week unveiled new MacBook Pro and iMac computers and three new chips to power them. The machines aimed at professional users, come at a time when the PC market is showing signs of a pick up after its over two-years-long slump.
The decline in global PC shipments slowed for a third straight quarter in the July-September period, a sign that the market has bottomed out, according to research firm IDC.
The global smartphone market contracted 8% in this period, according to Counterpoint.
The company's services business will likely be a bright spot, with estimated growth of 11.3%. The segment has often outpaced growth in Apple's hardware business in recent years and now accounts for nearly a quarter of its total revenue.