Reuters-Chinas ex-premier leaves an unfinished reform legacy
October 27, 2023 3 min 538 words
这则报道揭示了中国前总理李克强去世后，中国经济改革的未竟之业。李克强一直被视为中国改革的支持者，但在习近平领导下，中国政策朝更加国有化的方向演变，放弃了李克强主张的一些经济改革措施。这标志着中国改革的终结，一段可以稳步推进改革的时代结束了。 李克强在职期间着力改善创业环境、吸引外国投资、削减繁文缛节、提高贫困人口的收入，但这些雄心勃勃的市场化改革在习近平领导下陷入困境。文章中提到，习近平的政治权力和经济控制力远超以往领导人，这削弱了李克强的影响力。 报道还指出，其他一些支持改革的领导人也在政界离开，而习近平更多地选择提拔自己的盟友，这可能导致政府政策偏向更国有化，而不是市场化改革。中国目前正推出一系列刺激政策以振兴经济，但经济学家警告中国可能面临通货紧缩和停滞不前的风险，未能提高人民生活水平。 最后，报道提到了即将召开的中国共产党全会，但指出不应期望在改革方面有重大突破。总之，这篇报道强调了中国改革面临的挑战，以及李克强时代与习近平时代之间的政策分歧，这对于中国未来的经济走向和改革方向都具有重要意义。
When China's Communist Party released the names of its 205-person Central Committee a year ago, there was a glaring omission: Li Keqiang, the premier.
The exclusion of Li, who died of a heart attack on Friday at the age of 68, seemed to confirm what many long assumed - that his brand of economic reform had been officially scrapped in favor of President Xi Jinping's state-led approach to the economy.
Reform is once again on the minds of China's policy makers and analysts as it struggles to revive flagging consumer demand and fend off Japan-style economic stagnation.
But rather than push changes advocated by many economists, such as renewed urbanisation and more space for private enterprise, China under Xi has put more power in the hands of the state.
"It’s not an exaggeration to say that an era is over – an era when reforms could be steadily pushed forward," said a government policy adviser who declined to be identified.
Li retired in March after a decade as China's second most senior leader and an advocate for private business but his power had been limited after Xi made himself China's most powerful leader in decades and tightened control over the economy and society.
The English-speaking premier, who held a PhD in economics from the elite Peking University, focused on improving conditions for entrepreneurs, wooing foreign investors, cutting red tape and boosting incomes for the poor.
But ambitious market-based reforms Beijing unveiled in 2013 quickly ran into trouble, including a 2015 stock market crash following a botched currency reform. Under Xi's leadership, the world's second-largest economy gradually turned back to old policies that have added to China's debt pile and industrial overcapacity.
"The scope for Li's policymaking and implementation had became more subordinated under President Xi Jinping, who had unabashedly dominated in politics and policy making, relegating Li to playing second fiddle," said Dali Yang, a politics professor at University of Chicago.
China's economic miracle started in 1978 when Deng Xiaoping launched historic reforms, allowing more private enterprises and opening the economy to foreign investment.
Li was not the only pro-reform leader who ended up out of the picture. Former economic tsar Liu He, former banking regulator Guo Shuqing, and former central bank chief Yi Gang, have all left government.
Xi has instead packed the government with his allies, mostly officials with limited international or financial experience.
Beijing is unleashing a round of stimulus in a bid to shore up the economic recovery but economists warn China could be headed for a long-period of deflation and stagnant growth that fails to lift living standards for its 1.4 billion people.
Some government advisers have been beating the drum for reforms, focusing on spurring urbanisation and household spending power, reducing reliance on investment and leveling the playing field between state-owned enterprises and private firms.
A Communist Party plenum, expected in November and which has traditionally focused on reforms, could disappoint those awaiting big changes.
"I don't expect any breakthroughs on reforms," said the government policy adviser.