The Economist-Xi Jinping steps up his attempt to rescue Chinas economy Finance economics
October 25, 2023 3 min 565 words
这篇报道分析了中国政府采取的经济刺激措施，着重强调习近平总书记最近访问中国央行，以及批准了发行1万亿元人民币（约合1370亿美元）的中央政府债券。这些举措表明中国政府在经济增长方面采取了积极的立场。文章指出，尽管政府此前已采取了刺激措施，但这次债券发行规模之大仍然出乎分析师的意料。 我认为这篇报道提供了对中国经济政策的有价值的观察和见解。中国政府的举措表明他们正在采取积极的行动，以避免经济增长停滞，并应对一系列挑战，包括地方政府的财政问题和经济下行压力。习近平总书记的访问央行也表明他在经济政策中扮演着重要角色，这进一步强调了中国政府对经济的重视。 然而，文章也提到了一些潜在的风险，包括中央政府的财政赤字可能会增加，以及中国央行需要应对通货紧缩和汇率问题。这些风险需要密切关注，以确保中国的经济政策能够实现稳健增长并避免不稳定因素的影响。 总的来说，这篇报道对中国经济政策的最新发展进行了深入分析，提供了有益的观点，但也指出了一些潜在的挑战。这些信息对于理解中国经济的当前状况和未来走势非常重要。
When China reported faster-than-expected economic growth for the third quarter of this year, some analysts felt a twinge of concern. They worried that China’s rulers might now rest on their laurels. Rather than pressing on with efforts to revive demand, policymakers might instead wait and see if they had already done enough. The growth target for this year is, after all, only 5%. And the central government likes to keep its fiscal powder dry.
This fear was allayed on October 24th when officials approved the sale of an extra 1trn-yuan ($137bn) of central-government bonds. The sale will force the central government to revise its official deficit for the year from 3% of gdp to a hefty 3.8%. As a consequence, the headline deficit in China’s year of reopening will be bigger than it was in 2020, the year of its first lockdowns.
The money will be spent on helping local governments cope with natural disasters, such as recent floods. It will help relieve the strain felt by many cities and provinces. Revenues from land sales have been hit by a property slump. Off-balance-sheet debt has become harder to service, owing to a weak economy and wary investors. This year’s quota of “special” infrastructure bonds has been nearly exhausted. Help was therefore required to prevent sharp cuts in local-government outlays.
But even analysts who had expected stimulus of this size were surprised. Officials could have lifted the economy by pulling less conspicuous levers. They could, for example, have allowed local governments to issue more bonds or instructed state-directed “policy banks” to expand lending. By putting the 1trn yuan on its tab, Beijing signalled its support for growth. It was a statement as well as a stimulus.
The bond sale will occur under a new finance minister, Lan Fo’an, whose job was confirmed the same day. Mr Lan has served as governor of coal-rich Shanxi, but spent more time in Guangdong, a coastal powerhouse. His step up was, though, overshadowed by news that Xi Jinping had paid his first known visit to China’s central bank.
What prompted the visit? It may indicate that the country’s president is paying close attention to the economy at a busy time in the policymaking calendar. Officials will soon gather for a twice-a-decade conference on China’s financial system; another, annual meeting in December will help set economic policy for next year.
Mr Xi may have also wished to raise the stature of the central bank, which has recently lost some of its staff, regional branches and regulatory powers, even as it has been thrust into prominence by China’s economic struggles. It is fighting a two-front battle to prevent deflation by lowering borrowing costs, while at the same time trying to stop China’s currency, the yuan, falling too quickly against the dollar.
In most countries, a president’s visit to the central bank would not excite much comment or interest. Certainly, it would not overshadow the arrival of a new finance minister. But in China, the finance minister has little clout and the president has plenty. Not much the finance minister does compels attention. Nothing the president does escapes it. ■
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