The Guardian-China expanding nuclear arsenal much faster than predicted US report says
October 20, 2023 4 min 711 words
中国扩大其核武库的速度比以前预测的要快，这是一份美国五角大楼的报告称的。这份报告还指出，北京正在加大对邻国的压力，以抵制美国的遏制努力，以及从俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争中汲取了关于台湾冲突可能会如何发展的经验教训。 这份报告在周四发布，还警告称，中国可能正在追求一种新的洲际导弹系统，使用常规武器，如果部署，将使北京“威胁对美国本土、夏威夷和阿拉斯加的常规打击目标。” 这份报告出来一个月之后，预计中国领导人习近平和美国总统乔·拜登将在旧金山亚太经济合作组织峰会的侧线会议上举行会晤。 这份每年的报告是国会要求的，是五角大楼衡量中国不断增长的军事实力的一种方式，美国政府将中国视为该地区的主要威胁，也是美国主要的长期安全挑战。 五角大楼的国防战略仍以中国仍然是美国最大的安全挑战为基础，来决定如何装备和塑造未来的美国军队。这份报告继续强调了五角大楼在2022年发出的警告，即中国正在迅速扩大其核力量，超出了美国官员的预测，这突显了一种广泛且持续增强的军事力量的建设，旨在使北京能够在本世纪中叶与甚至超越美国的全球实力。 去年的报告警告称，北京正在迅速现代化其核力量，并计划到2035年将核弹头数量增加到1,500枚，而美国拥有3,750枚核弹头。这份2023年的报告发现，北京正按计划将于2030年前部署超过1,000枚核弹头，继续迅速现代化，旨在实现习近平到2049年拥有“世界一流”军队的目标。 在前一份报告之后，中国指责美国升级了紧张局势，北京表示仍然致力于“不首先使用”核武器的政策。五角大楼并未看到中国在此政策上发生改变，但一名美国高级国防官员在报告发布前在匿名情况下向记者透露，美国方面认为可能存在一些情况，中国可能认为该政策不适用，但没有提供详细信息。美国不奉行“不首先使用”政策，并表示核武器只会在“极端情况”下使用。 报告还指出，中国正在加大军事、外交和经济压力，不仅是对台湾，还针对所有的地区邻国，以抵制其视为美国遏制其崛起的努力。对台湾的压力包括弹道导弹飞越、增加的战机侵犯其国际防空区以及去年八月举行的大规模军事演习，包围了台湾。北京誓言将台湾带入其控制之下，必要时使用武力。美国已承诺向台湾提供数十亿美元的军事装备，以加强其防御，帮助其抵御潜在的攻击。但中国也已投入数十亿美元用于军事。根据中国的公共预算数字，中国2023年的军费支出增加了7.2%，达到1.58万亿元人民币，相当于2160亿美元，超过了经济增长。美国官员表示实际数字可能要高得多。北京表示，实施防御性军事政策，以保护国家利益。报告还指出，中国加大了对在该地区国际领空飞行的美国军机的骚扰，并记录了超过180起中国飞机对美国军机的侵扰事件。
A Pentagon report on China’s military power says Beijing is exceeding previous projections of how quickly it is building up its nuclear weapons arsenal and is “almost certainly” learning lessons from Russia’s war in Ukraine about what a conflict over Taiwan might look like.
The report released on Thursday also warns that China may be pursuing a new intercontinental missile system using conventional arms that, if fielded, would allow Beijing “to threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental United States, Hawaii and Alaska.”
The China report comes a month before an expected meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco.
The annual report, required by Congress, is one way the Pentagon measures the growing military capabilities of China, which the US government sees as its key threat in the region and America’s primary long-term security challenge.
But after Hamas’s 7 October attacks on Israel, the US has been forced again to focus on the Middle East, instead of its widely promoted pivot to the Pacific to counter China’s growth. The US is rushing weapons to Israel while continuing to support and deliver munitions to Ukraine in its 20-month struggle to repel Russia’s invasion.
Still, the Pentagon’s national defense strategy is shaped around China remaining the greatest security challenge for the US, and that the threat from Beijing will determine how the US military is equipped and shaped for the future.
The Pentagon report builds on the military’s warning in 2022 that China was expanding its nuclear force much faster than US officials had predicted, highlighting a broad and accelerating buildup of military muscle designed to enable Beijing to match or surpass US global power by midcentury.
Last year’s report warned that Beijing was rapidly modernizing its nuclear force and was on track to nearly quadruple the number of warheads it has to 1,500 by 2035. The US has 3,750 active nuclear warheads.
The 2023 report finds that Beijing is on pace to field more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, continuing a rapid modernization aimed at meeting Xi’s goal of having a “world class” military by 2049.
After the previous report, China accused the US of ratcheting up tensions and Beijing said it was still committed to a “no first use” policy on nuclear weapons.
The Pentagon has seen no indication that China is moving away from that policy but assesses there may be some circumstances where China might judge that it does not apply, a senior US defense official said without providing details. The official briefed reporters on Wednesday on condition of anonymity before the report’s release.
The US does not adhere to a “no first use” policy and says nuclear weapons would be used only in “extreme circumstances.”
The report said China is intensifying military, diplomatic and economic pressure not only on Taiwan but also toward all its regional neighbours to push back against what it sees as US efforts to contain its rise. The pressure against Taipei includes ballistic missile overflights, increased warplane incursions into its international defence zone and a large-scale military exercise last August that encircled Taiwan.
Beijing has vowed to bring Taiwan under its control, by force if necessary. Xi has given his military until 2027 to develop the military capability to retake the self-ruled island democracy that the Communist party claims as its own territory.
The US has committed billions of dollars in military weapons to Taiwan to build up its defences and help it rebuff any potential attack.
But China also has devoted billions to its military. According to its public budget numbers, China’s military spending for 2023 rose 7.2% to 1.58 trillion yuan, or $216bn in US dollars, outpacing its economic growth. US officials say the actual figure may be much higher. Beijing says it implements a defensive military policy to protect the country’s interests.
The report also noted that China has increased its harassment of US warplanes flying in international airspace in the region and recorded more than 180 instances where Chinese aircraft aggressively intercepted US military flights.