Reuters-Venezuela to divert barrels from China if US continues easing sanctions
October 18, 2023 4 min 688 words
这则报道强调了美国政府考虑对委内瑞拉石油出口解除制裁，这将可能对中国石油进口带来影响。这一发展在美国总统拜登政府计划解除一些与委内瑞拉石油和天然气行业有关的制裁，以回应委内瑞拉政府与反对派就2024年总统选举的担保协议。然而，这一协议并未包括解除关键反对派人士的公职禁令或释放政治囚犯的条款。 报道指出，委内瑞拉目前的原油产量远低于2024年官方目标的1,700,000桶/日，主要原因是长达二十年的管理不善和不足的投资，再加上自2019年以来的美国石油制裁。因此，即使解除制裁，委内瑞拉的原油出口不太可能抵消俄罗斯的制裁和OPEC+的产量削减对国际油价造成的影响，除非有大规模的投资。 美国政府最重要的一项制裁解除措施是向雪佛龙公司颁发的许可证，但尽管雪佛龙公司几乎将其联合产量翻了一番，并恢复了对美国的原本主要市场的出口，但委内瑞拉国内石油行业依然陷入困境。委内瑞拉国家石油公司（PDVSA）仍然面临筹资困难、进口钻机、修复炼油厂、推进项目和寻找合作伙伴的挑战。 委内瑞拉的原油产量仍然只相当于2017年美国开始实施金融和石油制裁之前的2,400,000桶/日的一小部分。与2014年的80多个钻机相比，该国目前只有一台钻机在活跃，根据贝克休斯数据。 要使委内瑞拉再次成为一个重要的石油出口国，需要大量的投资，包括数十台钻机、数十亿美元的炼油厂、流量站和原油改质装置的基础设施更替，以及可靠的电力供应。专家预测，即使华盛顿允许一家家合资企业扩大业务和出口，委内瑞拉的石油产量在未来两年内也只会增长17万至20万桶/日。 此外，委内瑞拉可能会通过与特立尼达和多巴哥进行的合法石油项目的谈判，开始石油出口。有了美国的授权，委内瑞拉有望增加向美国、欧洲和加勒比地区的出口。这将可能减少对中国的石油供应，因为已经有数据表明，委内瑞拉今年迄今为止向中国的直接和通过中转站的石油出口已经从2022年的477,000桶/日下降到了437,000桶/日。 然而，尽管可能会有一些增长，但由于制裁解除的幅度有限，且目前不允许新的投资，很难预测未来几年的总产量是否会超过1,100,000桶/日。这则报道突出了委内瑞拉石油行业的复杂性和挑战性，以及全球原油市场的复杂互动，这需要更多的时间和资源来实现重要的改变。
Exemptions to sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports that the U.S. is mulling should not result in a large crude production surge in the OPEC country, instead taking barrels away from its current main destination China, experts said.
The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden plans to provide some broad easing of energy-related sanctions for Venezuela's oil and gas sector almost immediately, a senior U.S. State Department official told Reuters on Wednesday, in response to a deal on guarantees for the 2024 presidential election reached between the Venezuelan government and the country's opposition.
The deal, signed in Barbados on Tuesday, laid out some terms for the election, but did not include the lifting of public office bans on key opposition figures or the release of political detainees.
The same day, Trinidad and Tobago announced the U.S authorized a license amendment clearing the way for a joint gas project with Venezuela.
Venezuela has produced an average 780,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude so far this year, above the 716,000 bpd of 2022, but still far from an official goal of 1.7 million bpd for 2024.
The Biden administration has been seeking ways to boost global flows of oil to alleviate high prices caused by sanctions on Russia and OPEC+ output cuts. Venezuela's exports are unlikely to offset those cuts absent a big increase in investment, the experts said.
Two decades of mismanagement and insufficient investment, coupled with U.S. oil sanctions since 2019, are expected to stymie state-run PDVSA's ability to make a quick comeback to cash-paying oil markets and offer its crude at fair prices.
The most significant oil license so far granted by Washington as part of its sanction-easing strategy was to Chevron Corp (CVX.N) in November. The company has almost doubled joint output with PDVSA and resumed exports to Venezuela's former main market, the United States.
However, with about 20% of the country's total output, Chevron's joint ventures have been unable to turn around the national industry. PDVSA continues struggling to raise capital, import rigs, repair refineries, advance projects and secure relevant partnerships.
Venezuela's crude output remains at a fraction of the 2.4 million bpd it averaged before U.S. financial and oil sanctions began to be imposed in 2017. Only one drilling rig is active in the country versus more than 80 in 2014, according to Baker Hughes data.
Venezuela needs a long list of items to once again become a relevant oil exporter, according to analysts, including: dozens of drilling rigs, billions of dollars in infrastructure replacements for refineries, flow stations and crude upgraders and a reliable power supply.
OPEC allies have excluded Venezuela from quotas and given the country room to pump more. But experts predict a slow road to recovery as joint venture partners are authorized one-by-one by Washington to expand operations and exports.
Venezuela's oil output is expected to grow by between 170,000 and 200,000 bpd in the next two years if Chevron, Eni (ENI.MI) and Repsol (REP.MC) stick to expansion plans approved by the U.S. since last year, and if Maurel & Prom (MAUP.PA)obtains a similar permit to get debt repaid by exporting Venezuelan crude, said Francisco Monaldi from Rice University's Baker Institute.
Venezuela could also inaugurate gas exports if U.S.-authorized negotiations with Trinidad for joint offshore projects progress.
With U.S. authorizations potentially clearing the way for more exports to the U.S., Europe and the Caribbean, Venezuela is expected to divert a larger portion of its oil currently going to China, the analysts said.
Venezuela's exports to China both directly and through trans-shipments hubs have already fallen to 437,000 bpd so far this year, from 477,000 bpd in 2022, according to vessel monitoring data.
If Venezuela and China reach a pact to resume debt payments and expand joint oil projects, that could add some extra 100,000 bpd of output in the 2-year period, Monaldi added, potentially expanding exports to that destination again.
But with a limited scope for sanctions easing and no fresh investment allowed in the meantime, it is difficult to predict an overall output of more than 1.1 million bpd in the years to come, he said.