纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英总投资近万亿美元中国还能维系一带一路模式吗

China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, founded the Belt and Road Initiative a decade ago to use the country’s economic might to enlarge its geopolitical heft and counter the influence of the United States and other industrialized democracies.

十年前，中国最高领导人习近平提出了“一带一路”倡议，旨在利用中国强大的经济实力来扩大地缘政治影响力，对抗美国及其他工业化民主国家的影响力。

China has since disbursed close to $1 trillion to mostly developing countries, largely in loans, to build power plants, roads, airports, telecommunications networks and other infrastructure. Mr. Xi has used China’s cash and infrastructure expertise to tie together countries across Asia, Africa, Latin America and parts of Eastern and Southern Europe.

此后，中国（主要以贷款形式）向大多数发展中国家拨付了近1万亿美元，用于建设发电厂、道路、机场、电信网络和其他基础设施。凭借资金和基建专长，中国将亚洲、非洲、拉丁美洲及东欧和南欧的部分国家拉到了一起。

Belt and Road has established for China a role in global development rivaling that of the United States and the World Bank. But for all the influence it has brought Beijing, the initiative has contributed to unaffordable levels of debt for dozens of poor countries. China also directed contracts to its own companies and in some cases built expensive, subpar projects that have not spurred economic growth.

“一带一路”为中国确立了在全球发展进程中可与美国及世界银行匹敌的地位。尽管该倡议让北京获得了巨大的影响力，但也导致数十个贫困国家的债务达到难以承受的水平。中国还把合同交给了本国企业，在某些情况下打造的项目成本高昂却质量低下，没有起到刺激经济增长的作用。

Now, as representatives from many of the nearly 150 Belt and Road countries assemble in Beijing this week for a summit, the initiative is changing shape. China’s role has shifted from being the world’s largest bilateral lender to also its largest debt collector.

现在，在近150个“一带一路”国家的代表本周齐聚北京参加峰会之际，这一倡议的内涵正在发生变化。中国的角色已从全球最大的双边贷款国转变为最大的债务催收国。

The government is now emphasizing smaller grants for projects that are more environmentally sustainable. China in 2021 announced a new financial framework, the Global Development Initiative, to supplement the Belt and Road.

中国政府现在强调的是对更具环境可持续性的项目提供更少的资金。2021年，中国宣布了“全球发展倡议”这一新的金融框架，作为对“一带一路”的补充。

These changes underline how China’s mounting debt and economic troubles are limiting its ability to project financial power abroad.

这些变化凸显出中国越来越严峻的债务和经济问题如何限制了它向海外挥洒财力的能力。

Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center calculates that China’s issuance of overseas loans and other development finance peaked in 2016 at nearly $90 billion, then wilted to less than $5 billion by 2021, the most recent data available. China has taken a hard line in negotiations over debt relief to countries like Sri Lanka, Suriname and Zambia.

根据波士顿大学全球发展政策研究中心的计算，中国发放的海外贷款和其他开发性融资在2016年达到近900亿美元的峰值，到2021年降至不足50亿美元（此为可获得的最新数据）。在关于斯里兰卡、苏里南和赞比亚等国的债务减免谈判中，中方立场都很强硬。

The Rise of Belt and Road

“一带一路”的崛起

Wang Jisi, the founding president of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University, published a paper in July 2012 that would reshape China’s foreign policy doctrine. Titled “Marching West,” it contended that China should pay less attention to confronting powerful allies of the United States to the east — like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines — and focus more on Central Asia and the Middle East.

2012年7月，北京大学国际战略研究院的创始院长王缉思发表的一篇论文重塑了中国的外交理念。这篇题为《西进》的论文主张，中国应少把注意力放在对抗美国在东方的强大盟友——如日本、韩国、台湾及菲律宾——之上，而应更重视中亚和中东。

Mr. Xi embraced that approach after he took power later that year. China had just started to send goods to European markets on trains that followed 2,000-year-old Silk Road routes across the steppes of Central Asia. Mr. Xi traveled to Kazakhstan, China’s western neighbor, and announced a “Silk Road Economic Belt” in September 2013.

习近平在当年晚些时候掌权后就采取了这一方针。那时候中国的火车才刚开始沿着拥有2000年历史的“丝绸之路”穿越中亚的大草原，向欧洲市场运送货物。2013年9月，习近平访问了西部邻国哈萨克斯坦，宣布了“丝绸之路经济带”的理念。

Four weeks later, after Southeast Asian nations asked to be included, Mr. Xi announced a “Maritime Silk Road” to link countries across Southeast Asia and South Asia to East Africa.

四周后，当东南亚国家提出加入要求，习近平宣布建设“海上丝绸之路”，要将东南亚、南亚以及东非各国连接起来。

The initiative then went global, encompassing more-affluent countries that seemed to China to have unsteady ties with the United States. By 2019, Hungary, Portugal and even Italy, a member of the Group of 7 leading industrialized democracies, had signed agreements to cooperate with what by then had been renamed the Belt and Road Initiative. So did Iran, Saudi Arabia and countries across Latin America and Africa.

该倡议随后铺向全球，涵盖了在中国看来与美国关系不稳定的较富裕国家。到2019年，匈牙利、葡萄牙，甚至还有七国集团成员意大利都签署了已更名为“一带一路”倡议的合作协议。伊朗、沙特阿拉伯，以及拉美和非洲各国也纷纷加入。

For China, broader economic influence has sometimes brought political complications. That was seen in China’s cautious initial statements after the Hamas attacks in Israel. State television and the rest of China’s global propaganda apparatus have emphasized Israel’s bombing of Gaza over the preceding Hamas attack, presenting China as a true friend of the world’s poor.

对中国来说，更广泛的经济影响力有时会带来政治难题。哈马斯袭击以色列后，中国最初的谨慎表态就是证明。国家电视台和中国其他的全球政治宣传机器都在强调以色列对加沙的轰炸，而非哈马斯此前的袭击，将中国描绘成全球穷苦人民真正的朋友。

Environmental and Debt Troubles

环境和债务问题

In the years before the pandemic, Chinese companies, particularly construction and engineering firms, rushed to do deals financed with large loans from Chinese banks. Many leaders of developing countries welcomed China’s willingness to lend with few of the environmental and human rights restrictions that multilateral institutions and Western lenders have long demanded.

在疫情前的几年里，中国企业——特别是建筑和工程公司——都争相利用来自中国各银行的大笔贷款做生意。中国不像多边机构和西方贷款机构那样对环境和人权问题做出约束，其贷款意愿让许多发展中国家领导人大加赞赏。

Much of the work produced vital infrastructure like roads and rail lines. But other projects have contributed considerably to greenhouse gas emissions linked to climate change. In the early years of Belt and Road, China was the main international lender and builder for coal-fired power plants in developing countries.

大部分项目都是公路和铁路等重要基础设施的建设。但另一些项目对与气候变化相关的温室气体排放造成了相当大的影响。在“一带一路”实施的最初几年，中国是发展中国家火电厂项目的主要国际贷款方和建设方。

Mr. Xi announced two years ago that China would not build any more such plants. But Chinese companies continued to work on coal-fired projects with previously signed contracts.

习近平两年前宣布中国不会再建造此类发电厂。但中国企业仍在继续开展此前签署的火电项目。

Improving environmental sustainability will be a central stated theme of the next phase of China’s development lending. People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s main newspaper, said on Friday that China would “build a clean Silk Road.”

改善环境可持续性将是中国下一阶段开发性贷款的中心主题。中共党报《人民日报》周五表示，中国将“建设绿色丝路”。

Si Yinbo, executive vice president of China’s Silk Road Fund, a government-sponsored investment firm, said at a conference on Sept. 25 that projects would no longer be financed if they didn’t pass assessments of their environmental effects.

政府资助的投资公司中国丝路基金副总经理司欣波在9月25日的会议上表示，如果不能通过环境影响评估，项目就无法获得资金。

But with China still building more coal-fired power plants at home, Beijing is unlikely to join discussions in Southeast Asia on the possible retirement of existing coal-fired power plants, said Christoph Nedopil, founding director of the Green Finance and Development Center at Fudan University in Shanghai.

但上海复旦大学绿色金融与发展中心创始主任王珂礼(Christoph Nedopil)表示，由于中国仍在国内建设更多火电厂，北京不太可能加入东南亚关于可能让现有火电厂停止运营的讨论。

Shifting to Investment

转向投资

Chinese banks linked the interest rates for many of their Belt and Road infrastructure loans to international lending rates for dollars. As global interest rates have climbed and the dollar has strengthened, developing countries have been stuck with soaring bills to repay these loans. The economic shock that countries suffered from the pandemic exacerbated their financial problems. China has responded by allowing poor countries to defer some payments, but has resisted calls for debt forgiveness.

中国的银行将许多“一带一路”基础设施贷款的利率与国际美元贷款利率挂钩。随着全球利率攀升和美元走强，发展中国家偿还这些贷款的负担越来越重。疫情对经济的冲击也加剧了这些国家的财政问题。中国拿出的办法是允许贫困国家延期偿付部分贷款，但拒绝了免除债务的呼吁。

China has also started funding less risky projects. China Development Bank agreed in late August to lend $400 million to the African Export-Import Bank to provide trade finance to small and medium-size businesses.

中国也开始投资风险较小的项目。8月底，国家开发银行同意向非洲进出口银行发放4亿美元贷款，为中小企业提供贸易融资。

Kai Xue, a financing lawyer in Beijing, said that recent coups in Western-aligned countries in Africa’s Sahel showed that a better model was needed and that China could provide it by bankrolling many small loans.

北京的融资律师薛凯（音）表示，最近在非洲萨赫勒地区的西方盟国发生的政变表明，需要拿出更好的治理模式，而中国提供的许多小型贷款可以带来转机。

“China’s lending for agricultural and transportation projects can raise families’ incomes and the hopes of people, so they won’t overthrow governments,” he said.

“中国为农业和交通项目提供的贷款可以提高家庭收入，给人民带来希望，这样他们就不会推翻政府了，”他说。

A Tilt Away From the West

远离西方

From the start, the Belt and Road Initiative was about not just lending money but also imparting China’s political views, much as the West has long used development aid to push for democracy. China has aligned the initiative with autocratic countries like Syria and Myanmar that the West has condemned for human rights abuses.

“一带一路”倡议的目的从一开始就不只是放贷，还有传播中国的政治价值观，就像西方长期以来利用开发援助来推动民主传播一样。叙利亚和缅甸等被西方谴责侵犯人权的专制国家都加入了中国的倡议。

That division will be on stark display by the expected attendance at the summit of President Vladimir V. Putin, who was invited by Mr. Xi during a visit to Moscow in March. Mr. Putin rarely leaves Russia, and this year the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest on suspicion that he ordered the illegal deportation of children from Ukraine.

普京总统在峰会上现身也将这种分裂体现得淋漓尽致，他是在习近平3月访问莫斯科期间受到其邀请的。普京很少离开俄罗斯，今年他因涉嫌下令将儿童从乌克兰非法带走而遭国际刑事法院通缉。

Most European countries’ leaders and diplomats are expected to skip the forum. Italian officials have signaled that their country may leave the Belt and Road Initiative.

大多数欧洲国家领导人和外交官预计都将缺席此次论坛。意大利官员已示意，该国可能退出“一带一路”倡议。

China’s State Council, in a statement last week about the summit, alluded to Beijing’s longstanding stance that countries should not intrude on one another’s internal affairs, language that China commonly uses in response to international sanctions aimed at violations of human rights. “This is a new paradigm for state-to-state relations that shapes the international order towards greater justice and equality,” the statement said.

中国国务院在上周关于该峰会的声明中提及北京长期以来的立场，即各国不应干涉彼此的内政，这是中国在回应针对人权侵犯行为的国际制裁时常用的措辞。该声明表示，“（该倡议）开创了国际交往的新理念新范式，推动全球治理体系朝着更加公正合理的方向发展。”