The Guardian-Chinas economy grows faster than expected as retail sales rise
October 18, 2023 3 min 523 words
中国经济增长超出预期，零售销售上升，这是积极的消息。尽管自第二季度以来中国经济增长一直疲软，但最近的政策措施似乎开始发挥作用，有助于支撑世界第二大经济体的复苏。尽管存在楼市危机等问题，政府刺激措施似乎正在取得成效。 根据国家统计局发布的数据，7月至9月的国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长4.9%，高于分析师预期的4.4%，但较第二季度的6.3%扩张速度较慢。季度增长率也表现出积极趋势，第三季度同比增长1.3%，高于1%的增长预期。而9月份的消费和工业活动也好于预期。 尽管政府最近采取了一系列措施，但担忧债务风险和脆弱的人民币仍然影响了其刺激经济的能力。政府需要应对国内楼市危机、低迷的私营部门信心、全球经济增长减缓以及与美国在贸易、技术和地缘政治等方面的紧张关系，这使政策制定者面临严峻挑战。 尽管楼市下行趋势明显，但中国政府的复苏势头似乎使其有望实现2023年约5%的全年增长目标。然而，楼市危机对政策制定者来说仍然是一大挑战，因为楼市占据了经济总产出近四分之一的份额。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）已经下调了2023年和2024年中国的增长预测，称楼市放缓可能导致中国的GDP下降。因此，尽管有积极迹象，但中国经济仍然面临多重挑战。这需要政府采取谨慎而坚定的政策来保持经济增长并解决深层次问题。
China’s economy grew at a faster than expected rate in the third quarter, suggesting the recent flurry of policy measures is helping to bolster a tentative recovery in the world’s second-biggest economy.
Rapidly weakening growth in China since the second quarter has prompted authorities to step up support, with Wednesday’s data indicating the stimulus is starting to gain traction, although a property crisis and other problems continue to pose risks.
Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.9% in July-September from a year earlier, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 4.4% increase but slower than the 6.3% expansion in the second quarter.
On a quarter-by-quarter basis, GDP grew 1.3% in the third quarter, accelerating from a revised 0.5% in the second quarter and above the forecast for growth of 1%. Consumption and industrial activity in September was also better than expected.
Beijing has in recent weeks launched a raft of measures, but its ability to spur growth has been hamstrung by fears over debt risks and a fragile yuan, which has been hit hard this year due to widening yield differentials as global interest rates remain elevated, led by the US Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign.
“It seems that all of that stimulus is finally beginning to take effect, with a broad beat from growth, retail sales, industrial production and unemployment,” Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst at City Index in Brisbane, said.
The government is walking a tightrope as it tries to restore economic equilibrium. Policymakers are having to navigate a domestic property crisis, depressed private sector confidence, a slowdown in global growth and tensions with the US over trade, technology and geopolitics.
The recovery momentum suggests the government’s full-year 2023 growth target of about 5% is likely to be achieved.
Industrial output in September grew a stronger than expected 4.5% from a year earlier, but the pace was unchanged from August, according to the separate data. Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, also beat expectations, rising 5.5% last month.
But a deepening downturn in the property sector, which accounts for nearly a quarter of economic output, poses a big challenge to policymakers as they seek to keep growth on track, analysts said.
The latest data underlined those worries. Property investment in the first nine months of 2023 fell by 9.1% from a year earlier, after slumping 8.8% in January-August.
The faltering sector has hit some of the biggest real estate firms in the country including Country Garden, China’s biggest private property developer.
“In the grand scheme of things, I don’t think individual developers running into further financial turbulence will be enough to derail things. The problems of the developers have been known to the market for some while now,” Frederic Neumann, the chief Asia economist and co-head of global research at HSBC, said.
The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday downgraded its 2023 and 2024 growth forecasts for China, saying the property slowdown could cause the country’s GDP to decline.