Reuters-Chinas Q3 GDP growth Sept activity show economic recovery gaining traction
October 18, 2023 5 min 868 words
这篇报道呈现了中国第三季度GDP增长以及九月份经济活动的数据，显示了经济复苏正稳步取得进展。中国经济自第二季度以来一直在急速减弱，导致政府采取了一系列支持措施，而最新数据显示这些刺激政策开始起效。不过，房地产危机等一系列不确定因素仍然对经济前景构成风险。 值得注意的是，第三季度GDP同比增长4.9%，超过了分析师对4.4%的预期，但较第二季度的6.3%增长有所减缓。季度内GDP增长率从第二季度的0.5%提高到1.3%，也超过了1.0%的预期增长。这表明政府的刺激措施逐渐见效。 然而，中国政府在支持经济复苏的同时，仍需面对诸多挑战，包括房地产危机、青年失业问题、低迷的私营部门信心、全球经济增长放缓以及与美国的贸易、技术和地缘政治紧张关系。这意味着政府需要谨慎平衡各种因素，确保经济增长的稳定。 尽管有经济复苏的迹象，但房地产行业的深度衰退仍然对政策制定者构成挑战，因为它占据着经济产出的近四分之一。房地产投资在2023年前九个月同比下降了9.1%，这表明房地产行业问题仍然突出。此外，私营企业的固定资产投资也出现下滑，凸显了私营部门信心的疲软。 总之，中国经济的复苏有积极迹象，但仍然伴随着挑战。政府需要继续努力应对各种问题，以确保经济增长的稳健和可持续。这是一个需要高度警惕和谨慎应对的时刻。
China's economy grew at a faster-than-expected clip in the third quarter, while consumption and industrial activity in September also surprised on the upside, suggesting the recent flurry of policy measures is helping to bolster a tentative recovery.
Rapidly weakening growth in the world's second-biggest economy since the second quarter prompted authorities to step up their support steps, with Wednesday's batch of data indicating the stimulus is starting to gain traction although a property crisis and other headwinds continue to pose risks to the outlook.
Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.9% in July-September from the year earlier, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed, versus analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 4.4% increase but slower than the 6.3% expansion in the second quarter.
On a quarter-by-quarter basis, GDP grew 1.3% in the third quarter, accelerating from a revised 0.5% in the second quarter and above the forecast for growth of 1.0%.
"It seems that all of that stimulus is finally beginning to take effect, with a broad beat from growth, retail sales, industrial production and unemployment," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index in Brisbane.
The government is walking a tight rope as it tries to restore economic equilibrium, with policymakers having to navigate a domestic property crisis, high youth unemployment, depressed private sector confidence, a slowdown in global growth and Sino-U.S. tensions over trade, technology and geopolitics.
Beijing has in recent weeks unveiled a raft of measures, but its ability to spur growth has been hamstrung by fears over debt risks and a fragile yuan, which has been hit hard this year due to widening yield differentials as global interest rates remain elevated, led by the Federal Reserve's tightening campaign.
Asian stocks pared their losses after the better-than-expected China data, while the yuan and trade-dependent Australian and New Zealand dollars all bounced. The yuan hit a one-week high of 7.2905 per dollar.
The recovery momentum suggests the government's full year 2023 growth target of around 5.0% is likely to be achieved.
"The improvement in Q3 economic data makes it less likely for the government to launch stimulus in Q4, as the growth target of 5% is set to be achieved," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
"The focus of the government and the market will shift to the growth outlook for next year. The key issue is what growth target the government will set and how much fiscal easing will take place."
The statistics bureau said China would be able to hit the 2023 growth target if the fourth quarter growth tops 4.4%.
Industrial output in September grew a stronger than expected 4.5% from a year earlier, but the pace was unchanged from August, according to the separate data. Analysts had expected a 4.3% increase.
Growth of retail sales, a gauge of consumption, also beat expectations, rising 5.5% last month, and accelerating from a 4.6% increase in August. Analysts had expected retail sales to expand 4.9%.
Fixed asset investment grew 3.1% in the first nine months of 2023 from the same period a year earlier, versus expectations for a 3.2% rise. It expanded 3.2% in the January-August period.
But a deepening downturn in the property sector, which accounts for nearly a quarter of economic output, poses a big challenge to policymakers as they seek to keep growth on track, analysts said.
The latest data underlined those worries. Property investment in the first nine months of 2023 fell by 9.1% from a year earlier, after slumping 8.8% in January-August. Fixed-asset investment by private firms fell 0.6% in January-September year-on-year, highlighting weak private sector confidence.
The faltering property sector has hit some of the biggest developers in the country.
A grace period for a $15 million coupon payment by Country Garden Holdings (2007.HK), China's biggest private property developer, expired earlier in the day, fuelling fears that it had defaulted on its offshore debt.
"In the grand scheme of things, I don’t think individual developers running into further financial turbulence will be enough to derail things. The problems of the developers have been known to the market for some while now," said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist and co-head of Global Research at HSBC.
All the same, efforts by policymakers to support big cities have failed to bolster confidence, underscoring the depth of the problems in the industry which slumped into a crisis two years ago.
"In the near-term, our expectations are still for a further round of 10bp rate cuts in Q4 from the PBOC, a step-up in the easing of homebuying restrictions, and modest increases in state-directed infrastructure spending," said Louise Loo, China economist at Oxford Economics, in a note.
The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday downgraded its 2023 and 2024 growth forecasts for the Asian giant, saying the property slowdown could cause China's GDP to decline.