Reuters-Shares find muted cheer in China data Middle East strife lifts oil
October 18, 2023 3 min 639 words
这篇报道指出，中国的经济数据表明北京的刺激措施可能终于开始见效，但这一好消息被中东地区冲突可能扩大的担忧所掩盖。中国第三季度年度经济增长为4.9%，超出了4.4%的预测，零售销售和9月份的工业产出也好于预期，表明经济活动正在加速增长。然而，这并未阻止中国蓝筹股下跌0.5%，因市场情绪受到遏制。 另一方面，以色列和巴勒斯坦当局为加沙医院爆炸事件互相指责，使美国总统乔·拜登在该地区本已紧张的访问变得更加复杂。这一消息导致了油价的上涨，因投资者担心伊朗或其他国家可能被卷入冲突中。此外，强劲的美国零售数据导致债券收益率上升，市场纷纷开始预测未来几个季度的经济增长。 整体而言，这篇报道反映出全球金融市场的不确定性，中国经济数据表现强劲，但中东冲突和债券市场动荡给市场带来了许多不确定性因素。这也凸显了全球经济与地缘政治事件之间的紧密联系，投资者需要密切关注这些事件的发展。
Asian shares steadied on Wednesday as Chinese economic data suggested Beijing's stimulus measures might finally be gaining traction, only to be overshadowed by fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East that lifted oil prices.
Global bond markets were also still nursing heavy losses as strong U.S. retail data argued for a punishingly long stretch of high rates.
The outlook for the world economy did seem to take a turn for the better as China reported annual economic growth of 4.9% in the third quarter, beating forecasts for 4.4%.
Retail sales and industrial output for September surprised on the upside, suggesting activity was gaining momentum. That could not stop Chinese blue chips (.CSi300) slipping 0.5% as cautioned gripped markets.
The mood had been darkened as Israeli and Palestinian authorities traded blame for the blast that killed hundreds at a Gaza hospital, complicating U.S. President Joe Biden's already fraught trip to the region.
The news contributed to a spike in oil prices as investors worried Iran or other nations could get pulled in.
"We judge the risks are tilted towards escalation and spread of the Israel-Hamas conflict to other countries in the Middle East," warned analysts at CBA in a note. "A major spike in volatility and a downgrade of the global economic growth outlook is possible."
The sober mood left MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) 0.1% lower, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) dipped 0.2%.
EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures were both flat. S&P 500 futures eased 0.2% and Nasdaq futures 0.1%.
Tech stocks were dragged in part by a drop in Nvidia (NVDA.O) after news the Biden administration plans to halt shipments to China of more of its advanced artificial intelligence chips.
Markets are now anxiously awaiting earnings from Netflix (NFLX.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) later in the session.
Stocks were also pressured by a jump in bond yields after a barnstorming report on September U.S retail sales sent analysts scurrying to revise up forecasts for economic growth for both the third and fourth quarters.
JPMorgan jacked its growth call up to an annualised 4.3%, from 3.5%, while the influential Atlanta Fed GDPNow prediction jumped to a heady 5.4%.
Markets reacted by pricing in more risk the Federal Reserve will be forced to hike again. A move in November is still seen as just an 11% chance, but January climbed to 50% from 37%.
The market also again scaled back expectations for early rate cuts, with no chance of a move until June and around 54 basis points of easing implied for all of 2024.
Bonds took it badly, with two-year yields surging as much as 14 basis points on Tuesday to a 16-year peak of 5.24%. The two-year was last at 5.20%, while 10-year yields were back near recent highs at 4.84%.
The surge rippled through world bonds, with the Bank of Japan forced to conduct an unscheduled operation to buy JGBs to restrain a rise in yields.
More Fed comments are likely on Wednesday with no less than five officials speaking, ahead of an appearance by Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday.
The rise in yields underpinned the U.S. dollar, particularly on the low-yielding Japanese yen where the dollar reached 149.69 to again threaten major resistance at 150.00.
The euro eased back a touch to $1.0573 , having been as high as $1.0595 on Tuesday.
Safe-haven flows lifted gold 0.7% to $1,938 an ounce , well above its recent trough of $1,809.
Oil prices swung higher once more, driven by concerns over the Middle East and data showing a fall in crude stocks.
Brent climbed $1.76 to $91.66 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose $1.91 to $88.57 per barrel.