纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英中国三季度GDP增长超预期房地产危机阴影未散

China’s economy grew more than expected over the summer, as the government offset some of the harm from a real estate crisis by pouring money into infrastructure construction projects, like building rail lines.

中国经济今夏增长超出预期，政府通过向铁路等基础设施建设项目投入资金，房地产危机的部分影响得到抵消。

Data released on Wednesday showed that gross domestic product grew from July through September compared to the prior three months. Industrial production of everything from chemicals to steel began to stabilize as the government built more roads, sewage lines and other public works.

周三公布的数据显示，7月至9月的国内生产总值较前三个月有所增长。随着政府兴建更多的道路、污水管道和其他公共工程，从化学品到钢铁的各种工业生产开始企稳。

China’s economy, the world’s second largest, has struggled since the spring, as housing sales slowed and some of the biggest developers faced insolvency. The country’s debt load, which has surged in the past 15 years, continues to weigh on growth.

作为全球第二大经济体，中国经济自今年春季以来一直举步维艰，住房销售放缓，一些最大的开发商面临破产。该国的债务负担在过去15年里激增，继续拖累经济增长。

In the third quarter — from July through September — the economy grew 1.3 percent when compared to the three previous months. In the second quarter, the economy grew 0.8 percent.

从7月到9月的三季度，经济与前三个月相比增长了1.3%。二季度环比经济增幅为0.8%。

When projected out for the entire year, the third-quarter data indicates that China’s economy was growing at about 5.3 percent, compared to an annual rate of a little over 3 percent in the second quarter.

以三季度的数据推算全年经济表现，中国经济的年增长率约为5.3%，而在二季度这一数字则是略高于3%。

“It seems tentative, but better than it was three months ago,” said Meg Rithmire, an associate professor at Harvard Business School who specializes in the Chinese economy.

“似乎尚不明朗，但比三个月前要好，”哈佛商学院专门研究中国经济的副教授任美格(Meg Rithmire)说。

Consumers, alarmed by the property crisis, have been wary of spending.

受到房地产危机影响，消费者一直对消费持谨慎态度。

At the heart of the economy’s deeper problems is the real estate market: A two-year decline in home prices has left families feeling less prosperous, and less willing to spend money as a result. Weak demand for goods and services has left the economy teetering at the edge of deflation. Consumer prices were unchanged in September from a year earlier, and wholesale prices charged by producers actually fell, according to government data released on Friday.

中国经济深层次问题的核心是房地产市场：房价连续两年下跌，让许多家庭感觉没有那么富裕，因此也不太愿意花钱。对商品和服务的需求疲软使得经济在通缩边缘徘徊。上周五公布的政府数据显示，9月份消费者价格与上年同期持平，生产者的批发价格实际上有所下降。

Falling prices for apartments have triggered a wave of insolvencies among real estate developers and depressed construction — previously one of the country’s largest industries.

房屋价格的下跌引发了房地产开发商的破产潮，并导致建筑业陷入低迷。建筑业曾是中国最大的行业之一。

According to the Beike Research Institute in Tianjin, average prices for existing homes across 100 Chinese cities are now down 16 percent since August 2021.

根据天津贝壳研究院的数据，自2021年8月以来，中国100个城市的现房平均价格下降了16%。

The government has tried to offset the slowdown.

政府试图抵消经济放缓的影响。

Officials in Beijing have given local governments a green light to issue more bonds to pay for infrastructure projects. The state-controlled banking system has been pumping out loans to manufacturers so they can invest in more factories.

北京方面给地方政府开了绿灯，允许它们发行更多债券，为基础设施项目融资。国有银行系统一直在向制造商发放贷款，以便它们投资更多工厂。

The goal has been to create jobs, with the hope that people will then spend more money. Unemployment has been high among young people this year.

目标是创造就业机会，希望这样人们会花更多的钱。年轻人的失业率今年一直居高不下。

The lending is starting to help companies like Dalian Bingshan Group, a large manufacturer of commercial heating and cooling systems in the city of Dalian. “At Bingshan, we get a lot of government support — financing support, policy support,” said Ji Zhijian, the group’s chairman.

这些贷款开始帮助大连冰山集团这样的公司，该集团是大连一家大型商用供暖和制冷系统制造商。“冰山得到政府大力支持——融资支持、政策支持，”该集团董事长纪志坚表示。

China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, has cracked down over the last several years on private sector companies in fields ranging from internet platforms to home tutoring. But he has showed hints of softening in recent days as the economy continues to struggle, remarking on Friday, during a visit to Jiangxi Province, that he wanted to “promote the healthy development of the private economy.”

中国最高领导人习近平在过去几年中打击了从互联网平台到家教等领域的民营企业。但随着经济持续低迷，最近几天他的态度出现了软化迹象。上周五，他在视察江西时表示，他希望“促进民营经济健康发展”。

The pandemic casts a long shadow.

疫情的长期影响。

The main G.D.P. number reported by the government on Wednesday, which compared this summer to the same period last year, showed growth of 4.9 percent.

政府周三公布的主要GDP数据显示，今年夏天与去年同期相比增长了4.9%。

But a year ago, China’s economy was still struggling with “zero Covid” restrictions that included municipal lockdowns, mass quarantines and severe limits on travel between provinces.

但一年前，中国经济仍在努力应对“清零”限制措施，包括城市封锁、大规模隔离和严格限制省际旅行。

“It’s not fair to compare the economy now to the economy a year ago, when many in China were stuck in their homes, and that comparison also tells you little about where the economy is headed now,” said Diana Choyleva, the chief economist at Enodo Economics, a London research firm that focuses on China.

“将现在的经济与一年前的经济进行比较是不公平的，当时中国很多人都被困在家里，而且这种比较也无法告诉你现在的经济走向，”专注于中国的伦敦研究公司埃诺多经济的首席经济学家戴安娜·乔伊列瓦说。

China’s factories are still busy.

中国的工厂依然繁忙。

Even as China’s growth has slowed, its factories continue to produce a torrent of goods. And with domestic growth slowing, and consumers at home wary of making big purchases, China is finding big markets overseas.

尽管中国的经济增长已经放缓，但工厂仍在继续生产大量商品。随着国内经济增长放缓，以及国内消费者对大宗消费持谨慎态度，中国正在寻找巨大的海外市场。

China is flooding the world with exported cars, electric ones as well as gasoline-powered models.

中国出口的汽车正在大量涌向世界，既有电动车，也有燃油车。

Much of the merchandise is going to Europe. Before the pandemic, shipping statistics show, China exported 2.7 containers of goods to Europe for each container it imported. In recent months, China has been exporting almost four containers of goods for each container of imports.

大部分商品都运往欧洲。据航运业统计，疫情前，中国从欧洲每进口一个集装箱，就向欧洲出口2.7个集装箱的货物。近几个月来，中国从欧洲每进口一个集装箱，就会向欧洲出口近4个集装箱的货物。

But China’s export surge is generating political heat. European officials are concerned about the trade imbalance. And the European Union has already begun an anti-subsidy investigation into China’s fast-growing exports of electric cars, which could lead to tariffs next summer.

但中国的出口激增正在引发政治压力。欧洲官员担心贸易失衡。欧盟已经开始对中国快速增长的电动汽车出口进行反补贴调查，这可能导致明年夏天征收关税。