Reuters-Asia frets on Middle East risks looming China data
October 18, 2023 3 min 552 words
这篇报道涵盖了多个重要话题，涉及亚洲市场、中东地缘政治风险以及中国经济数据。首先，中东地区发生的加沙医院爆炸事件引发了对冲突升级的担忧，这可能会波及到中东其他国家。这种情况对全球经济增长前景构成威胁，特别是在中国即将发布的数据显示第三季度年度经济增长明显减速至约4.4%之际。这些数据还将提供有关经济活动是否终于响应了北京最近的刺激措施的见解。 另外，美国零售数据的强劲表现导致债券市场遭受重创，市场分析师纷纷上调了对第三季度和第四季度经济增长的预测，这也导致了对美联储可能被迫再次加息的更多风险定价。这一变化在市场上引发了对未来降息的预期下调，预计至少在2024年不会再降息。债券收益率上升支撑了美元，尤其是对低收益的日元，美元兑日元汇率再次威胁到150.00的重要阻力位。 总的来说，这篇报道突出了中东地缘政治风险、全球经济不确定性以及金融市场的不稳定性。这些因素将对亚洲和国际市场产生深远影响，需要密切关注。
Asian shares stuttered on Wednesday as a blast at a Gaza hospital dealt a blow to hopes for containing the crisis, while bonds nursed heavy losses as strong U.S. retail data argued for a punishingly long stretch of high rates.
Israeli and Palestinian authorities were trading blame for the blast that killed hundreds at the hospital, complicating U.S. President Joe Biden's already fraught trip to the region.
The news contributed to a spike in oil prices as investors worried Iran or other nations could get pulled into the conflict.
"We judge the risks are tilted towards escalation and spread of the Israel-Hamas conflict to other countries in the Middle East," warned analysts at CBA in a note. "A major spike in volatility and a downgrade of the global economic growth outlook is possible."
The threat to the global economy comes just as China is set to release data likely showing annual economic growth slowed sharply in the third quarter to around 4.4%.
Figures for retail sales and industrial output for September will also offer insight into whether activity is finally responding to Beijing's recent stimulus measures.
The cautious mood left MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) a shade lower, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) dipped 0.1%.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both eased 0.2% in early trade.
They were dragged in part by a drop in Nvidia (NVDA.O) after news the Biden administration plans to halt shipments to China of more of its advanced artificial intelligence chips.
Markets are now anxiously awaiting earnings from Netflix (NFLX.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) later in the session.
Stocks were also pressured by a jump in bond yields after a barnstorming report on September U.S retail sales sent analysts scurrying to revise up forecasts for economic growth for both the third and fourth quarters.
JPMorgan jacked its growth call up to an annualised 4.3%, from 3.5%, while the influential Atlanta Fed GDPNow prediction jumped to a heady 5.4%.
Markets reacted by pricing in more risk the Federal Reserve will be forced to hike again. A move in November is still seen as just an 11% chance, but January climbed to 50% from 37%.
The market also again scaled back expectations for early rate cuts, with no chance of a move until June and around 54 basis points of easing implied for all of 2024.
Bonds took that badly, with two-year yields surging as much as 14 basis points on Tuesday to a 16-year peak of 5.24%. The two-year was last at 5.22%, while ten-year yields were back near recent highs at 4.84%.
The rise in yields underpinned the U.S. dollar, particularly on the low-yielding Japanese yen where the dollar reached 149.77 to again threaten major resistance at 150.00.
The euro eased back a touch to $1.0573 , having been as high as $1.0595 on Tuesday.
Safe-haven flows supported gold at $1,924 an ounce , well above its recent trough of $1,809.
Oil prices swung higher once more, driven by data showing a fall in crude stocks and amid concerns over the Middle East.
Brent climbed $1.35 to $91.25 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose $1.62 to $88.28 per barrel.