Reuters-Softer China diplomacy as Xi navigates challenges at home
October 17, 2023 4 min 807 words
中国最近在与世界打交道时采取了更加温和的语调，释放了一名澳大利亚记者，邀请美国军方参加国防论坛，并同斯里兰卡达成了价值42亿美元的债务重组协议。这种与竞争对手以及中国在发展中国家的合作伙伴采取的和解态度，正值习近平主席应对多年来最重大的国内经济问题之际。这对美国来说是受欢迎的，因为它专注于中东危机，但分析人士表示，这种新的口气可能并不代表持久性的变化，旧有的紧张关系可能很快再次浮出水面。 暂时来说，中国希望向世界保证在商业上一切照旧，他们希望安抚外国投资者，让他们知道与美国及其在亚洲和欧洲的盟友的关系不是一种单向升级的螺旋上升。这种外交变化伴随着中国面临的各种压力，包括经济下滑、资本外流、房地产危机以及青年失业率的高涨。 尽管在一些问题上，中国的语气没有改变，例如在南海与菲律宾的海上对峙中没有退缩。但与此同时，中国希望加强与发展中国家的政治和贸易关系，这既出于经济原因，也是习近平倡导多极世界秩序的一部分，其中包括全球南方国家。中国希望打破“债务陷阱外交”的观念，即通过向一些国家提供无法偿还的贷款来控制它们。 这一外交变化出现在习近平面临不同压力的情况下，包括经济衰退、资本外流、房地产危机和青年失业率上升。稳定与美国的关系，包括在即将举行的亚太峰会上习近平与美国总统乔·拜登的会面，可能会给中国争取喘息的时间。 然而，随着明年的美国大选以及唐纳德·特朗普可能再度当选总统的可能性，一些人认为拜登在中国的核心问题上，包括对半导体出口的限制和贸易关税方面，几乎没有让步的空间。此外，任何涉及台湾明年一月选举前的中国军事演习都将与西方产生摩擦。基本关系中的紧张仍然存在，这只是一次短暂的外交活跃，很可能会立即被另一次下滑所紧随其后。
China has been striking a softer tone in its dealings with the world recently, releasing an Australian journalist from prison, inviting the U.S. military to a defence forum and agreeing to a $4.2 billion debt restructuring deal with Sri Lanka.
The conciliatory approach towards rivals as well as China's partners in the developing world comes as President Xi Jinping gets to grips with the most significant domestic economic problems seen in years.
While welcome for the United States as it focuses on the crisis in the Middle East, the new tone may not signal an enduring change and old tensions are likely to resurface before long, analysts say.
For the time being, China wants to reassure the world that it is business as usual when it comes to commerce, said Noah Barkin, an analyst with the Rhodium Group and expert on China's foreign relations.
"Their leaders are keen to reassure foreign investors that relations with the U.S. and its allies in Asia and Europe are not in a one-way escalatory spiral," Barkin said.
Last week, China released Australian news anchor Cheng Lei after holding her for three years on national security grounds, the latest step in a warming relationship with Australia and clearing the way for a visit by its prime minister.
The U.S. has been invited to an upcoming defence forum in Beijing - signalling a thaw in military exchanges - and Xi had kind words for a U.S. delegation led by Senator Chuck Schumer last week.
As Xi hosts a forum this week marking the 10th anniversary of his Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing has agreed with Sri Lanka to restructure more than $4 billion of its debt and forged a memorandum of understanding to restructure Zambian debt. Zambia was the first African country to default on its debt during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Beijing hopes that China and the United States can push for "a return to the path of healthy and stable development of U.S.-China relations," said a spokesperson for China's foreign ministry, adding that the country "places great importance on its cooperation with developing countries."
China's diplomatic shift comes as different pressures build on Xi, including the economic downturn, which has been exacerbated by capital flight, a property crisis and high youth unemployment.
"Xi Jinping is making nice with the Western powers in order to reduce the pace of multinationals leaving China, to counter China being cut off from the global supply chain," said Willy Lam, senior fellow at U.S. think tank Jamestown Foundation.
China has not changed its tone on every issue. It has not backed away from escalating maritime confrontation with the Philippines in the South China Sea.
But at the same time, China wants to deepen political and trade ties with developing countries, both for economic reasons and as part of Xi's push for a multipolar world order that includes the global south.
China wants to counter the idea that the BRI - a scheme to connect Asia with Africa and Europe through infrastructure and other investment - is a form of "debt trap diplomacy", making loans some countries can't repay.
The concessions to Sri Lanka and Zambia on debt could help.
"The purpose of the BRI has always been to help developing countries," said Huiyao Wang, president of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, adding that the project should be seen as akin to a Marshall Plan - the post-World War Two U.S. scheme to rebuild Europe - for developing countries.
Politically, the disappearances of China's foreign minister Qin Gang and defence chief Li Shangfu have complicated Xi's efforts to focus foreign policy and security efforts in response to its growing rivalry with the U.S.
Stabilizing the U.S. relationship, including with a meeting between Xi and U.S. President Joe Biden at an upcoming Asia- Pacific summit, could give China breathing room.
But with a U.S. election next year, and the possible return to the presidency of Donald Trump, some see little room for Biden to concede much - especially on China's core issues, including U.S. curbs on semiconductor exports and trade tariffs.
Any Chinese military exercises ahead of Taiwan's January elections would also create friction with the West.
"The fundamental tensions in the relationship remain, and this is a temporary uptick in engagement, which is likely to be followed almost immediately by another downturn," said Zack Cooper, a U.S.-China relations expert and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.