Reuters-Softer China diplomacy as Xi navigates challenges at home
October 17, 2023 4 min 775 words
中国外交风格的柔和转变是一个值得关注的迹象。在国内面临严峻经济挑战的同时，中国正在采取更和解的姿态，释放了囚禁的澳大利亚记者，邀请美国军方参加国防论坛，并同斯里兰卡达成了42亿美元的债务重组协议。这种对手和发展中国家伙伴的和解态度，正值中国国家主席习近平应对多年来最重大的国内经济问题之际。这一变化在中东危机期间让美国感到欢迎，但分析人士表示，这种新的态度可能不会持久，旧有的紧张关系可能很快再次浮出水面。 这一暂时的外交柔和可能是为了向世界保证，商业方面一切正常。中国的领导人迫切希望向外国投资者保证，与美国及其亚洲和欧洲盟国的关系不会一味升级。中国外交部门尚未立即回应置评请求。 中国外交的这一变化，也受到了各种不同的压力，包括经济下滑、资本外流、房地产危机以及高青年失业率等。习近平正试图改善与西方大国的关系，以减缓跨国公司撤离中国的速度，以及避免中国被切断全球供应链。 中国并没有在每个问题上都改变立场，尤其在南海与菲律宾的海上对峙问题上，中国没有后退。然而，中国希望加强与发展中国家的政治和贸易关系，这既出于经济原因，也符合习近平推动多极世界秩序的努力，包括全球南方地区。 中国外交的这一改变还有助于消除“债务陷阱外交”的观念，即中国通过向某些国家提供无法偿还的贷款来获得政治影响力。对斯里兰卡和赞比亚的债务让步可能会有所帮助。 总体而言，中国外交的柔和转变是一个复杂的策略，旨在同时应对国内和国际挑战。然而，根本的紧张关系仍然存在，这种临时的外交回暖可能很快会再次出现波动。在中国外交的这一进程中，国际社会需要持续保持警惕，确保任何积极的外交信号能够带来真正的稳定和合作。
China has been striking a softer tone in its dealings with the world recently, releasing an Australian journalist from prison, inviting the U.S. military to a defence forum and agreeing to a $4.2 billion debt restructuring deal with Sri Lanka.
The conciliatory approach towards rivals as well as China's partners in the developing world comes as President Xi Jinping gets to grips with the most significant domestic economic problems seen in years.
While welcome for the United States as it focuses on the crisis in the Middle East, the new tone may not signal an enduring change and old tensions are likely to resurface before long, analysts say.
For the time being, China wants to reassure the world that it is business as usual when it comes to commerce, said Noah Barkin, an analyst with the Rhodium Group and expert on China's foreign relations.
"Their leaders are keen to reassure foreign investors that relations with the U.S. and its allies in Asia and Europe are not in a one-way escalatory spiral," Barkin said.
Last week, China released Australian news anchor Cheng Lei after holding her for three years on national security grounds, the latest step in a warming relationship with Australia and clearing the way for a visit by its prime minister.
The U.S. has been invited to an upcoming defence forum in Beijing - signalling a thaw in military exchanges - and Xi had kind words for a U.S. delegation led by Senator Chuck Schumer last week.
As Xi hosts a forum this week marking the 10th anniversary of his Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing has agreed with Sri Lanka to restructure more than $4 billion of its debt and forged a memorandum of understanding to restructure Zambian debt. Zambia was the first African country to default on its debt during the COVID-19 pandemic.
China's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
China's diplomatic shift comes as different pressures build on Xi, including the economic downturn, which has been exacerbated by capital flight, a property crisis and high youth unemployment.
"Xi Jinping is making nice with the Western powers in order to reduce the pace of multinationals leaving China, to counter China being cut off from the global supply chain," said Willy Lam, senior fellow at U.S. think tank Jamestown Foundation.
China has not changed its tone on every issue. It has not backed away from escalating maritime confrontation with the Philippines in the South China Sea.
But at the same time, China wants to deepen political and trade ties with developing countries, both for economic reasons and as part of Xi's push for a multipolar world order that includes the global south.
China wants to counter the idea that the BRI - a scheme to connect Asia with Africa and Europe through infrastructure and other investment - is a form of "debt trap diplomacy", making loans some countries can't repay.
The concessions to Sri Lanka and Zambia on debt could help.
"The purpose of the BRI has always been to help developing countries," said Huiyao Wang, president of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, adding that the project should be seen as akin to a Marshall Plan - the post-World War Two U.S. scheme to rebuild Europe - for developing countries.
Politically, the disappearances of China's foreign minister Qin Gang and defence chief Li Shangfu have complicated Xi's efforts to focus foreign policy and security efforts in response to its growing rivalry with the U.S.
Stabilizing the U.S. relationship, including with a meeting between Xi and U.S. President Joe Biden at an upcoming Asia- Pacific summit, could give China breathing room.
But with a U.S. election next year, and the possible return to the presidency of Donald Trump, some see little room for Biden to concede much - especially on China's core issues, including U.S. curbs on semiconductor exports and trade tariffs.
Any Chinese military exercises ahead of Taiwan's January elections would also create friction with the West.
"The fundamental tensions in the relationship remain, and this is a temporary uptick in engagement, which is likely to be followed almost immediately by another downturn," said Zack Cooper, a U.S.-China relations expert and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.