The Economist Print Edition-Xi Jinping bumps up the share prices of firms he visits China
October 12, 2023 3 min 622 words
这篇报道揭示了中国领导人习近平对公司股价的影响，以及他的政策背后的复杂性。习近平的视察活动通常受到广泛报道，旨在展示他关心民生和朴实的一面，但研究表明，其实这种影响更为复杂。根据日本研究人员的研究，习近平的视察会导致受访公司的股价短期内上涨，但这种效应很快就会消失。研究还发现，习近平访问的公司中，私营企业受益更多，而国有企业的股价变化较小。这表明，国有企业在政治上得到支持，而私营企业更容易受到习近平的访问而获得银行贷款和销售增长。 研究还发现，这种领导人效应不仅局限于中国。美国的研究也表明，当美国公司的老板会晤白宫官员时，公司股价也会上涨，尽管涨幅远远不及中国。这种习近平视察的特大影响部分可以解释为他的政策。在习近平的领导下，中国政府将更多努力引导投资进入其视为具有战略重要性的产业。因此，当投资者得知他将访问某家公司时，他们可能更倾向于将这次视察视为他已经选定一家赢家的迹象。习近平或许讨厌“国家资本主义”这个术语，但中国的投机者似乎受益于这种政策的多种表现。这一研究提供了一个有趣的视角，深入探讨了中国领导人的政策和市场之间的关系。
In imperial times, to gather unfiltered information and tap into the public mood, emperors slipped into civilian clothing and travelled around incognito. China’s Communist rulers are fond of inspection tours, too. But unlike the emperors’ hugger-mugger trips, modern equivalents are highly publicised affairs, intended to show that the visitors are caring and down-to-earth. State media often show China’s current leader, Xi Jinping, visiting schools, offices and factories, surrounded by onlookers beaming with adoration.
It might be expected that Mr Xi’s inspections of firms would generate such a positive buzz that their business would benefit. But a paper by researchers in Japan, led by Ito Asei of the University of Tokyo, paints a more complex picture of the Xi effect. It is based on a study of leaders’ visits to companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges during the rule of Mr Xi and his predecessor, Hu Jintao, who was the party’s chief from 2002 to 2012.
The researchers measured profits on investments in shares of the visited firms and compared them with returns that would have been expected had a visit not occurred (“cumulative abnormal returns”, in stockmarket jargon). They focused on a 15-day period around each inspection. Between 2012 and 2022 Mr Xi visited 53 listed firms while his prime minister, Li Keqiang (who stepped down this year after holding the job for a decade), toured 43 of them.
The impact was clear. For Mr Xi, abnormal returns peaked on average at nearly 6% above the expected amount. For Mr Li, they were about 3.5% above. Both figures were much higher than the researchers calculated for Mr Hu (2.2%) and his prime minister, Wen Jiabao (1.3%). In Mr Xi’s second five-year term as the party’s leader, which began in 2017, the effect was even greater, reaching nearly 7%. Curiously, the influence of a visit by Mr Xi is often seen before the trip itself, suggesting that rumours of his plans may spread before he sets off.
Mr Ito and his co-authors found that leaders were more likely to call on larger firms that are already doing well. Some speculators may reckon that the visits could portend government action that would give these companies an extra boost. But the researchers found that state firms, which are always politically favoured, do not reap any additional benefits from leaders’ visits. It is non-state-owned companies, which rank lower in the party’s esteem, that revel more in the afterglow: they find it easier to get bank loans and experience a spike in sales.
The leader effect on company value is not confined to China. In a study published in 2020, researchers led by Jeffrey Brown of the University of Illinois found that when bosses of American companies met White House officials, their firms’ share prices also increased. But the abnormal returns, at about 0.4% on average, paled in comparison with those noticed in China.
The outsize impact of a Xi visit could be explained partly by his politics. Under his leadership the Chinese government has put much greater effort into directing investment towards what it considers to be strategically important industries. Mr Xi is a champion of this dirigiste approach. So when investors get wind that he will visit a firm, they may be all the more inclined to see the trip as a sign that he has picked a winner. Mr Xi would abhor the term state capitalism, but China’s speculators feed on its abundant manifestations. ■
Subscribers can sign up to Drum Tower, our new weekly newsletter, to understand what the world makes of China—and what China makes of the world.