The Washington Post-Chinese property giant Evergrandes slow implosion nears crunch time
September 28, 2023 4 min 695 words
这则报道对于中国房地产巨头恒大的困境进行了深刻的剖析，恒大自2021年违约3300亿美元债务以来，一直在努力摆脱被称为中国版雷曼兄弟的声誉。然而，最新的发展显示，这一声誉似乎愈发不容乐观。 首先，恒大确认无法筹集资金，需要“重新评估”其重组计划，这引发了中国房地产股市自九个月来最大的抛售潮。随后，恒大及其两个主要子公司因彭博社报道公司董事长徐家炎被中国警方“居住监视”而停止交易。这一系列消息表明，中国试图对其最负债务的公司进行“受控拆除”的努力可能失控，使这家负债累累的开发商朝着清盘的方向走去。 这一事件不仅影响了恒大及其主席徐家炎的声望，还反映了中国房地产行业的急速下滑，该行业占中国经济增长的近四分之一。目前，中国政府似乎不再对恒大抱有好感，多名现任和前任恒大高管因涉嫌违规使用银行存款正在接受中国当局的调查。这一调查使得达成重组协议变得困难，一些债权人已经宣布如果恒大无法提出新计划，他们将加入清盘申请。 恒大多年来的崩溃可能严重损害了对中国强大领导人习近平的信心，他试图引导中国的经济摆脱疫情后的低迷。然而，一旦恒大无法达成协议，将对陷入困境的房地产行业的复苏前景和其他开发商的乐观情绪造成严重打击。 尽管中国的经济问题在习近平上台之前就存在，中国房地产开发商多年来一直过度建设和过度借贷，但一些密切关注中国政治经济的观察家将这次的下滑归咎于习近平试图在太多领域过快进行顶层改革。 如果出现无协议情况，可能会破坏对困境行业复苏的信心，逆转其他开发商为避免类似命运而努力的乐观情绪。与此同时，为了振兴房地产销售，中国各地正在采取措施，例如放宽非居民购房政策、降低首付要求和改善抵押贷款利率。 尽管8月份经济出现复苏迹象，商品销售增加，出口稳定，但许多分析师仍然担心房地产泡沫破裂可能对经济复苏构成最大威胁。这一问题不仅会加剧结构性问题，还可能影响信心。总之，恒大的问题只是中国房地产行业长期问题的一种体现，这可能在未来拖累中国的经济增长。
2023-09-28T01:48:13.932Z
It’s been a terrible week in Chinese real estate giant Evergrande’s battle to shake its reputation as the Lehman Brothers of China’s struggling economy — a comparison it has been trying to avoid since 2021, when it defaulted on $330 billion in debt and sent shock-waves through global markets.
It started with confirmation on Sunday that the developer couldn’t raise funds after saying it needed to “reassess” its restructuring plans amid an investigation by the Chinese regulators — news that led to the biggest sell-off in Chinese property stocks in nine months on Monday.
Then, on Thursday, the group and two of its major subsidiaries suspended trading after Bloomberg reported that its billionaire chairman, Xu Jiayin, was being held under “residential surveillance” by Chinese police. Xu is also called Hui Ka Yan, the Cantonese pronunciation of his name.
The fall from grace of Xu and his company — he was by some estimates China’s richest businessperson in 2017 — tracks the rapidly declining health of the Chinese property sector, which accounts for nearly a quarter of economic growth in the world’s second largest economy.
The spate of bad news suggests that China’s efforts to achieve a “controlled demolition” of its most indebted company might be spiraling out of control — and toward liquidation for the heavily indebted developer.
As China’s economy slows, the buck stops with leader Xi Jinping
Recent events have shown that “Evergrande isn’t in the good graces of the authorities,” said Janz Chiang, an analysts at Trivium China, a Beijing-based research firm.
Aside from Xu, multiple other sitting and former executives of China Evergrande Group and its subsidiaries are being investigated by Chinese authorities over potentially breaking rules over the use of bank deposits, respected Chinese media outlet Caixin reported this week.
The ongoing investigation makes it difficult to reach a restructuring deal. “Some creditors have already announced their intention to join a winding-up petition if Evergrande fails to come up with a new plan, which seems difficult given ongoing troubles,” Chiang said.
A messy end to Evergrande’s multiyear saga would deal a blow to already shaky confidence in the ability of Xi Jinping, China’s powerful leader, to coax the slowing Chinese economy out of a post-pandemic malaise.
While many of the problems dampening growth predate Xi — Chinese property developers have been overbuilding and over-borrowing for decades — some close observers of China’s political economy blame the downturn on Xi’s attempt to pursue major, top-down reforms too quickly on too many fronts.
A no-deal outcome could shatter confidence of a recovery in the embattled sector and reverse optimism among other developers that are fighting to avoid a similar fate.
Chinese property giant Evergrande files for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection
China’s largest property developer by sales, Country Garden, which has also flirted with default, reached an agreement with creditors on Tuesday to delay its repayments on domestic loans, Reuters reported.
In an effort to end the slump, cities across China are trying to revive property sales by making it easier for nonresidents to buy homes as well as cutting down payment requirements and improving mortgage rates.
Across the broader economy, too, there were signs of recovery in August, as sales of goods pick up and exports stabilized. Many analysts are watching China’s upcoming week-long public National Day holiday to see if confidence is returning to the scores of Chinese consumers that remain reluctant to splash out.
But many analysts consider the possibility of the property bubble bursting the biggest threat to economic recovery.
“[The property sector] is the biggest immediate problem that can worsen structural issues, such as confidence,” said Gary Ng, senior analyst at Natixis, a Hong-Kong based investment firm.
Evergrande is “a symptom of the ongoing problems in the real estate sector which may drag down China’s economic growth in the future,” Ng said.