Reuters-Dollar shines as oil surge spooks investors
September 28, 2023 3 min 443 words
这篇报道展现了当前全球经济面临的复杂挑战，引发了我对市场动态的深刻关注。首先，石油价格的激增引起了市场投资者的担忧，尤其是在长期利率持续高企的情况下。库欣（Cushing）原油库存大幅下降，引发了对燃油需求超过产能的担忧，这对市场来说是一个意外的供给冲击。美国原油价格连续两天上涨，首次达到自2022年8月以来的95美元/桶，而布伦特原油期货价格也创下了一年来的新高。 然而，这一上涨的背后是高能源成本和持续的通胀威胁，这进一步加剧了长期债券的压力，导致10年期国债收益率本月上升了50个基点，达到了16年来的峰值，达到4.642%。这表明了全球经济持续增长的高成本，尤其是对长期资产的压力。这种情况对于股市来说并不利，因为高油价、高收益率和强劲美元通常不利于股市。 全球股市表现也不容忽视，MSCI的全球股票指数已连续下跌10天，创下了自2021年以来的最长连跌纪录。亚太地区股市也受到影响，日本的日经指数下跌了1.5%，而日元兑美元汇率也逼近每美元150日元的水平，这可能引发官方干预。 与此同时，人民币也面临压力，因为市场对于中国陷入困境的房地产市场正在侵蚀经济增长的担忧加剧。尽管汇率市场的干预使人民币兑美元的汇率保持在7.3166，但已经接近其交易带的较弱区域。中国内地股市保持稳定，但香港恒生指数下跌1%，债务累累的中国恒大的股票在一份报告称其董事长被警方监视后被暂停交易。恒大的股价曾一度超过30港元，但在周三收于0.32港元。 总的来说，这篇报道反映了目前全球经济中的不稳定因素，特别是在能源价格、利率和通胀方面的压力加剧。投资者需要保持警惕，因为市场可能面临更多的波动和不确定性。
Oil prices scaled one-year highs on Thursday, while world stocks eyed their longest losing streak in two years as worries deepened about persistently high interest rates, sending investors to shelter in the safety of a surging U.S. dollar.
A surprisingly big drop in crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, stoked concern that fuel demand is outstripping production right when markets least needed another supply-side shock.
U.S. crude rose 3.6% overnight and another 1% on Thursday to hit $95 a barrel for the first time since August 2022. Brent futures hit a one-year high at $97.69.
The prospect of higher energy costs and the spectre of sticky inflation put more pressure on longer-dated bonds, with benchmark 10-year Treasury yields up more than 50 basis points this month to hit a 16-year peak at 4.642%.
"The world keeps getting more expensive," said Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda, in a note. "The rise in oil increased the upward pressure on bond yields (and) the combo of higher oil, higher yields, and a higher greenback tends not to augur well for equities."
MSCI's index of global equities (.MIWD00000PUS) moved a fraction lower and could notch its 10th straight daily fall on Thursday, which would equal a long losing streak from 2021.
MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was pinned near a 10-month low in early trade.
Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1.5%, and the strong dollar has the Japanese yen within a whisker of 150-per-dollar, seen as a level likely to provoke an official response or intervention.
Dollar/yen hit 149.71 on Wednesday and traded at 149.40 on Thursday in Asia. The euro dropped 0.7% to a nine-month low of $1.0488 on Wednesday and last bought $1.0511.
It is down more than 3% in September to eye its largest monthly fall on the dollar since April 2022.
China's yuan is also coming under pressure - ahead of a week-long holiday that begins on Friday - on fresh concern that the struggling property market is swallowing growth. Only a very strong fixing of its trading band has held off sellers and the yuan last changed hands at 7.3166 per dollar, not far from the weaker extremity of its trading band.
Mainland stockmarkets (.SSEC) were steady while the Hang Seng (.HSI) slipped 1%. Shares in indebted developer China Evergrande (3333.HK) were suspended after a report that its chairman was placed under police surveillance.
The stock, once worth more than HK$30, had closed at HK$0.32 on Wednesday. U.S. futures edged up 0.2%. Gold nursed losses at $1,873 an ounce.