纽约时报中文网 - 中英对照版-中英移除浮动屏障菲律宾强势抵制中国在南海领土主张

The video may seem too simple, too understated to mark a serious international incident in the South China Sea: a quick clip of a diver using a knife to cut a section of rope underwater.

这段视频或许看似过于简单、低调，够不上南中国海发生了一起严重国际事件的标志，它不过是一名潜水员在水下用刀割断了一段绳索的快剪视频。

But that diver was with the Philippine Coast Guard, and the rope was part of a sea barrier placed by Chinese forces to keep Philippine boats away from an area they had a legal right to fish in. In that moment, the Philippines took one of the most forceful steps yet in contesting China’s unrelenting territorial claims ever closer to the Philippine Islands.

但视频中的潜水员是菲律宾海岸警卫队，而那段绳索属于中国军队设置的“浮动屏障”，为的是阻止菲律宾船只靠近他们本来有合法捕鱼权的水域。视频中的那个时刻显示，菲律宾采取了迄今为止最有力的措施，以对抗中国在距离菲律宾群岛更近的海域所坚持的领土主张。

“The barrier posed a hazard to navigation, a clear violation of international law,” the Philippines said in a statement, adding that the action had come on direct orders from President Ferdinand E. Marcos Jr.

“浮动屏障对航行构成了威胁，明显违反了国际法”，菲律宾在一份声明中写道，它还表示，割断绳索的行动是费迪南德·马科斯总统亲自下令采取的。

Since he took office in June 2022, Mr. Marcos has signaled wanting a more muscular foreign policy approach toward China. But until now, those actions were confined mostly to rhetoric, deepening alliances with the United States and other countries, and releasing videos of aggressive activities undertaken by the Chinese Coast Guard against Philippine vessels.

自从2022年6月上任以来，马科斯已发出信号，要对中国采取更强硬的外交政策。但直到目前，菲律宾的做法主要局限在言辞上，再就是深化与美国和其他国家的联盟关系，以及公布中国海警针对菲律宾船只的挑衅行为的视频。

The surprise this time was that the action was being taken by Manila. It has left little doubt that the Philippines is offering more forceful resistance to China’s territorial designs.

这次行动的惊人之处在于，它是菲律宾政府采取的。毫无疑问，菲律宾正在对中国的领土主张进行更强有力的抵制。

While the Biden administration is likely to see that as good news, apprehension is rising in the region about how China might counter that resistance, and whether there could be a risk of sparking a direct military clash among China and the Philippines and its allies, including the United States Navy fleet patrolling the region.

虽然拜登政府可能将这次行动视为好消息，但该地区的忧虑正在上升，人们担心中国会如何应对这种抵制行为，以及是否会引发中国与菲律宾及其盟友发生直接军事冲突的风险，包括与在该海域巡逻的美国海军舰队发生冲突。

After the rope was cut and the Philippines lifted the anchor that kept it in place, China removed the barrier. On Tuesday, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry brusquely dismissed the Philippine statement. “We advise the Philippines not to cause provocation and cause trouble,” he said.

菲律宾剪断绳子、拉起了固定绳子的锚后，中国移走了浮动屏障。中国外交部发言人周二粗暴地驳斥了菲律宾的声明。“我们奉劝菲方不要挑衅滋事，”他说。

Song Zhongping, a commentator in Beijing who is a former military officer, said the Philippines was emboldened to cut the barrier “because the United States continues to encourage the Philippines to confront China in the South China Sea.”

来自北京的评论员宋忠平曾是中国军官，他说，菲律宾之所以有拆除屏障的胆量，“是因为美国继续鼓励菲律宾在南海与中国对抗。”

“China must take decisive measures to put an end to the Philippines’ provocation,” Mr. Song said. “We can’t allow the Philippines to commit endless provocations and pose a serious threat to China’s national sovereignty and security.”

“中国必须采取果断措施，制止菲律宾的挑衅行为，”宋忠平说。“我们不能允许菲律宾无休止地挑衅，对中国国家主权和安全构成严重威胁。”

China claims 90 percent of the South China Sea, some of it thousands of miles from the mainland and in waters surrounding Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia and the Philippines. In the past decade or so, China has asserted ever greater control over these waters, using two island chains called the Paracels and the Spratlys to expand its military footprint by building and fortifying outposts and airstrips.

中国声称对90%的南中国海水域拥有主权，包括与中国大陆相距几千公里，但离越南、马来西亚、文莱、印度尼西亚和菲律宾更近的水域。在过去十年左右的时间里，中国对这些水域实行了越来越多的控制，在帕拉塞尔群岛（Paracels，中国称西沙群岛——译注）和斯普拉特利群岛（Spratlys，中国称南沙群岛——译注）这两个岛链上通过建造和加固前哨基地和机场，扩大了它的军事存在。

These actions have alarmed much of Asia and the United States, which says it has a vested interest in maintaining freedom of navigation in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. China’s military buildup, and increasingly aggressive action by its coast guard and maritime militia, have also raised questions about China’s intentions in the region and its willingness to comply with international law and norms.

这些行动已引起亚洲许多国家和美国的警惕，美国认为，维持世界上最繁忙航道之一的航行自由符合其利益。中国的军力建设，以及中国海警和海上民兵越来越好斗的行为也引发了人们对中国在该地区的意图，以及遵守国际法准则的意愿产生了怀疑。

The tensions are particularly pronounced in the Philippines, where fishermen have been blocked by Chinese vessels from fishing, and Manila has been prevented from fully exploring oil and gas deposits within an area that an international tribunal in The Hague ruled in 2016 to be part of the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.

这种紧张局势在菲律宾表现得尤为明显，中国船只阻止菲律宾渔民去他们的传统水域捕鱼，并阻止了菲律宾政府对一个水域的石油和天然气储藏量进行充分勘探，尽管海牙国际法庭 已在2016年裁定该水域属于菲律宾的专属经济区。

Many analysts say China is likely to stop short of taking any military action against the Philippines, a treaty ally of the United States, for fear of being embroiled in a broader conflict with Washington and other U.S. allies in the region. In August, the American defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, reaffirmed that a mutual defense treaty with the United States “extends to Philippine public vessels, aircraft and armed forces — to include those of its Coast Guard — in the Pacific, including in the South China Sea.”

许多分析人士称，中国可能不会对美国的条约盟友菲律宾采取任何军事行动，因为担心陷入与美国及其在该地区的其他盟友发生更广泛冲突的困境。美国国防部长奥斯汀在今年8月重申，菲律宾与美国的共同防御条约“适用于菲律宾在太平洋地区（包括南中国海）的民用船只、飞机和武装部队，包括其海警部队”。

“If the U.S. has to engage in a military confrontation with China in the South China Sea, you can’t expect Australia and Japan, for example, to just sit there and idle about while their American allies are fighting the Chinese,” said Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies in Singapore. “They will be drawn into it somehow. So this is something that I believe any good Chinese planner will have to consider.”

“如果美国不得不在南海与中国发生军事对抗的话，你不能指望——比如说，澳大利亚和日本等国在它们的盟友美国与中国作战时袖手旁观，”新加坡国防与战略研究所高级研究员许瑞麟(Collin Koh)说。“它们将以某种方式卷入。所以我相信这一点是任何中国优秀的军事规划师必须考虑的。”

Mr. Koh said he expects China to ramp up its presence in the South China Sea, perhaps by sending more vessels around disputed areas like Thitu Island and the Second Thomas Shoal to prevent Filipino fishermen from operating freely and to block maritime law enforcement vessels.

许瑞麟表示，他预计中国将加强在南中国海的存在，也许会派更多船只前往提图岛（Thitu Island，中国称中业岛——译注）和第二托马斯沙洲（Second Thomas Shoal，中国称仁爱礁——译注）等争议水域，以阻止菲律宾渔民自由作业，拦截海上执法船只。

Bilahari Kausikan, a former ambassador at large with Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said he believes “Beijing has enough problems at home without wanting to add to them by picking a confrontation with the U.S. as well.”

曾任新加坡外交部巡回大使的比拉哈里·考斯甘说，他认为“中国政府国内的问题已经够多了，不会选择与美国对抗，让问题增多”。

Mr. Kausikan said “the risk of conflict would be higher” if the Philippines had not removed the barrier, “because then the Chinese would be tempted to push the boundaries even further.”

考斯甘说，如果菲律宾不拆除漂浮屏障的话，“发生冲突的风险会更高，因为那会引诱中国人进一步扩大边界。”

But Leonardo Cuaresma, president of the New Masinloc Fishermen’s Association in the Philippines, said that in the municipality where the barrier was cut, he was nervous about how China could react.

但菲律宾新马辛洛克渔民协会主席莱昂纳多·库阿雷斯玛称，他对中国会如何反应感到紧张，被拆除的漂浮屏障位于马辛洛克市水域。

“Here in Masinloc, it’s natural to feel fear because should there be a conflict, we will be the first one to feel it,” Mr. Cuaresma said. “It’s difficult, because we don’t know if there will be a war or what. We are anxious.”

“马辛洛克的人感到恐惧很自然，因为如果发生冲突，我们首当其冲，”库阿雷斯玛说。“我们很难，因为我们不知道是否会发生战争或其他事情。我们干着急。”

Mr. Cuaresma said he and his peers have not been able to fish in the Scarborough Shoal for years because of China. “The moment we get near the entrance of the shoal, they would immediately block us,” he said. “Their smaller boats would sail beside us and tell us: ‘Go away, Filipino.’”

库阿雷斯玛说，由于中国的原因，他和同行已多年无法在斯卡伯勒浅滩（Scarborough Shoal，中国称黄岩岛——译注）捕鱼。“一旦我们靠近浅滩入口，他们就会立即挡住我们，”他说。“他们的小船会在我们旁边航行，对我们说：‘走开，菲律宾人。’”

Alongside the high emotions, there is still anxiety in Manila about how to deal with China.

除了高涨的情绪外，菲律宾政府也在如何与中国打交道上感到焦虑。

Koko Pimentel, the Philippine Senate Minority Leader, told a Senate hearing that he agreed with the Marcos government’s decision to remove the Chinese barrier. But later, in a text message to a New York Times reporter, he offered a cautious addition: “We should avoid conflict as much as possible. Do everything through dialogue and diplomacy. Differing positions are a fact of life, and we should be able to navigate through life with this reality.”

菲律宾参议院少数党领袖科科·皮门特尔曾在参议院听证会上表示，他同意马科斯政府拆除中国屏障的决定。但后来，在给《纽约时报》记者的短信中，他谨慎地补充道：“我们应该尽可能避免冲突。通过对话和外交途径做所有的事情。有不同立场是生活的现实，我们应该能在生活中正确地处理这个现实。”

Antonio Carpio, a former Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice in the Philippines and an expert on the South China Sea, said the Philippines was just mirroring what Malaysia and Indonesia did recently when both countries sent their ships to survey in disputed waters despite threats from China.

菲律宾最高法院前高级副法官、南中国海问题专家安东尼奥·卡皮奥说，菲律宾只在做马来西亚和印度尼西亚最近做的事情，那两个国家不顾中国的威胁，派船勘测了有争议的水域。

“If you assert your right and you stand your ground, well, China will not do anything,” he added.

“如果大家坚持自己的权利，坚定自己的立场的话，中国不会行动，”他补充道。

Mr. Carpio said that, more broadly, the international community must pay attention to what is happening in the South China Sea because “what is at stake in Ukraine and in the South China Sea are exactly the same.”

卡皮奥说，更广泛地来看，国际社会需要关注南中国海正在发生的事情，因为“乌克兰和南中国海（对国际社会）的利害关系完全相同”。

“All nations must oppose this, because this is not just a matter of the Philippines, it’s about the future of the world,” he said. “If the U.N. Charter, which outlawed the wars of aggression, is overturned, then only nuclear powers will be able to settle disputes according to their dictates. It will be ‘might is right’ again.”

“所有的国家都必须反对（中国的挑衅行为），因为这不仅仅是菲律宾的问题，这关系到世界的未来，”他说。“如果禁止侵略战争的《联合国宪章》被推翻的话，那么只有有核国家才能按照自己的意愿解决争端。‘强权即公理’将再现。”