Reuters-Dueling US Senate House views on funding raise likelihood of government shutdown
September 26, 2023 4 min 822 words
这篇报道凸显了美国国会两院在政府资金问题上的分歧，增加了政府关门的可能性。这种两党之间的分歧已经成为过去十年政治僵局的常态，逐渐影响到华尔街对美国政府信用的看法。 美国参议院试图推进一项旨在阻止政府在短短五天内关门的两党法案，而众议院则试图推进一项只得到共和党支持的冲突性法案。这种两院之间的分歧表明，联邦政府很有可能在本年度迎来第四次关门，这种党派分歧已经开始影响到华尔街对美国政府信用的看法。 参议院的法案将会为政府提供资金，延续至11月17日，并包括约60亿美元的国内灾害救援资金和约60亿美元的对乌克兰的援助。由于法案的细节尚未公开，因此尚不清楚如果被国会批准，这种临时资金将持续多少周。 与此同时，众议院议长凯文·麦卡锡表示，他将寻求他党内分歧的共和党成员批准一项也会临时提供政府资金的法案。但他打算附加严格的边境和移民限制措施，这不太可能得到足够多众议院或参议院民主党人的支持以成为法律。 这场僵局引发了对信用评级机构穆迪的担忧，尽管尚不清楚它是否会影响美国的信用价值，因为过去的政府关门并没有对世界最大经济体产生显著影响。 此外，这也已经成为2024年总统选举的因素，前总统唐纳德·特朗普，作为共和党总统候选人的领跑者，支持政府关门的讨论。然而，那些强硬派要求的削减仅占美国本年度总预算的一小部分，而议员们并不考虑削减像社会保障和医疗保险这样的受欢迎福利项目，这些项目随着人口老龄化预计将大幅增长。 总统乔·拜登本人呼吁众议院共和党人遵守与麦卡锡达成的协议。为了满足他们的担忧，麦卡锡已经安排了星期二晚上的程序性投票，以提出未来财政年度的四项反映保守派优先事项的开支法案，但这些法案没有成为法律的机会。 如果星期二的众议院投票成功，议员们将试图在本周晚些时候将这四项法案通过众议院，但这些法案将不会为政府提供全面资金，也不会防止政府关门。 共和党在众议院中以狭窄的221-212多数控制，且支持票数有限，尤其是因为一些共和党强硬派威胁要借助民主党的选票罢免麦卡锡的领导职务，如果他依赖民主党的选票来通过立法，可能会使通过临时性开支法案以避免政府关门的任何努力变得复杂。 自1981年以来，国会已经关闭政府14次，尽管大多数资金缺口只持续了一两天。这个局势引发了信用评级机构穆迪的担忧，但目前尚不清楚它是否会损害美国的信用价值。
The U.S. Senate on Tuesday was set to try to move forward on a bipartisan bill meant to stop the government from shutting down in just five days, while the House sought to push ahead with a conflicting measure backed only by Republicans.
The split between the two chambers suggested that the federal government was increasingly likely to enter its fourth shutdown in a decade on Sunday, a pattern of partisan gridlock that has begun to darken Wall Street's view of the U.S. government's credit.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell were working in tandem to win passage of a bipartisan short-term extension of federal funding at current levels.
The Senate measure would fund the government through Nov. 17, and includes around $6 billion for domestic disaster responses and another roughly $6 billion in aid for Ukraine, according to a Senate aide.
Details of the measure were not yet unveiled, so it was unclear how many weeks this temporary funding would last if approved by Congress.
The Senate was set to vote on whether to open debate on the bill, with at least 60 of the chamber's 100 votes needed to clear the hurdle.
Meanwhile, House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday told reporters he would seek approval from his splintered Republicans on a bill that also would temporarily fund the government.
But he intends to attach tough border and immigration restrictions that are unlikely to win support from enough Democrats in the House or Senate to become law.
Democratic President Joe Biden and McCarthy had aimed to head off a shutdown this year when they agreed in May, at the end of a standoff over the federal debt ceiling, to discretionary spending of $1.59 trillion for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1.
But hardliners to the right of McCarthy have rejected that deal, demanding another $120 billion in cuts.
McCarthy's measure would restart construction of the U.S.-Mexico border wall, a signature policy of former President Donald Trump and tighten immigration policies.
Critics have said it would effectively put an end to U.S. asylum for immigrants.
McCarthy called on the Biden and congressional Democrats to reconsider their opposition. The top Senate Republican pleaded with his House counterpart to embrace the Senate bill.
"Government shutdowns are bad news, whichever way you'd look at it," McConnell said.
McCarthy countered, "Let's do something on the border, keep the government open and show this nation that we can do it right, and solve the rest of our problems as we go."
Hundreds of thousands of federal workers will be furloughed and a wide range of services, from economic data releases to nutrition benefits, will be suspended beginning on Sunday if the two sides do not reach agreement. In Washington, the National Zoo says it would have to curtail its farewell party for three giant pandas before they return to China.
The standoff has caused concern at credit rating agency Moody's, though it is unclear whether it will hurt U.S. creditworthiness, as past shutdowns have not had a significant impact on the world's largest economy.
It is also factoring into the 2024 presidential election, with Trump, the front-runner for the Republican nomination, cheering on the shutdown talk.
The cuts that hardliners are pushing for only account for a fraction of the total U.S. budget, which will come to $6.4 trillion for this fiscal year. Lawmakers are not considering cuts to popular benefit programs like Social Security and Medicare, which are projected to grow dramatically as the population ages.
Biden himself has called on House Republicans to honor his deal with McCarthy.
Bowing to their concerns, McCarthy has teed up a procedural vote on Tuesday evening to take up four spending bills for the coming fiscal year that reflect conservative priorities and stand no chance of becoming law.
If Tuesday's House vote succeeds, lawmakers would try to pass the four measures out of the House later in the week. They would not fund the full government or prevent a shutdown.
Republicans control the House by a narrow 221-212 majority and have few votes to spare, particularly since some Republican hardliners have threatened to move to oust McCarthy from his leadership role if he relies on Democratic votes to pass legislation.
That could complicate any effort to pass a stopgap spending bill and avert a shutdown.
Congress has shut down the government 14 times since 1981, though most of those funding gaps have lasted only a day or two.