Reuters-Futures drop as rate concerns keep Treasury yields elevated
September 26, 2023 2 min 397 words
这篇报道反映了当前美国市场的紧张氛围，而我的评论如下： 美国市场未来走势堪忧，因为投资者持续担忧美联储将采取长期紧缩的货币政策，并担心其对经济的影响。此外，下周可能发生的美国政府部分关闭也加剧了投资者的不安，据穆迪公司称这可能对信用产生"负面影响"。 在这种气氛下，大型科技股，如苹果、微软、Meta Platforms和特斯拉在盘前交易中下跌了0.5%到0.7%。亚马逊在周一宣布计划投资备受关注的初创公司Anthropic后，其股价也下跌了0.4%。 此刻，道琼斯指数期货下跌145点，跌幅为0.42%，标准普尔500指数期货下跌22点，跌幅为0.5%，纳斯达克100指数期货下跌85.25点，跌幅为0.57%。影响股市的因素之一是两年和十年期国债收益率升至多年来的高点，这是由于美联储对较长期利率的鹰派预测以及其他主要央行的类似立场。 Equiti Capital的首席宏观经济学家Stuart Cole表示：“人们越来越感到沮丧，认为利率不会很快下降，它们将长期处于紧缩区域，妨碍了经济增长，使公司运营在更为困难的经济环境中。” 根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，交易员对于11月和12月基准利率维持不变的押注分别达到了82%和61%。与此同时，市场预期明年3月将出现25个基点的利率降息，而在6月和7月的预期则超过33%。 此外，投资者还将密切关注9月份的消费者信心指数以及8月份的新屋销售报告，这些数据将在开盘后发布。本周还将关注包括耐用品、8月份的个人消费支出价格指数、二季度国内生产总值等数据，以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔等官员的讲话。 明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里在周一指出，为了抑制通货膨胀，有必要提高借款成本，这是因为经济表现出乎意料地强劲。与此同时，芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯丁·古尔斯比在CNBC采访中表示，通货膨胀超过2%的目标仍然比经济放缓的幅度更具风险。 总之，目前的市场情况令人担忧，紧张情绪主导着投资者的决策，未来的不确定性将需要谨慎应对。
U.S. stock index futures declined on Tuesday as investors continued to grapple with fears of a prolonged restrictive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and its impact on the economy.
Adding to investor anxiety was the likelihood of a partial shutdown of the U.S. government by next Sunday, which according to ratings agency Moody's is likely to be a "credit negative".
Megacap growth stocks including Apple (AAPL.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), Meta Platforms (META.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) lost between 0.5% and 0.7% in premarket trading.
Amazon.com shares (AMZN.O) also shed 0.4% after boosting Wall Street on Monday on its plans to invest in the high-profile startup, Anthropic.
At 5:19 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 145 points, or 0.42%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 22 points, or 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 85.25 points, or 0.57%.
Pressuring equities, the benchmark two- and 10-year Treasury yields have scaled multi-year highs after the Fed's hawkish longer-term rate outlook, a stance also projected by other major central banks.
"There is a growing sense of despondency that rates will not come down any time soon, and that they will remain in restrictive territory for an extended period, hampering growth and making for a more difficult economic environment for companies to operate in," said Stuart Cole, chief macro economist at Equiti Capital.
Traders' bet on the benchmark rate remaining unchanged in November and December stood at 82% and 61%, respectively, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, a 25-basis-point rate cut is being priced in as early as March, growing to over 33% in June and July.
Investors will keep an eye out for the consumer confidence index for September and a report on new home sales for August, due after the opening bell.
Through the week, data including on durable goods, the personal consumption expenditures price index for August, second-quarter gross domestic product, as well as remarks by Fed policymakers such as Chair Jerome Powell will be monitored.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Monday noted the need for raising borrowing costs to tame inflation in light of a surprisingly resilient economy, while Chicago Fed chief Austan Goolsbee in a CNBC interview said inflation above 2% target remains a greater risk than the scope of a slowing economy.
U.S.-listed shares of Chinese firms JD.com , PDD Holdings (PDD.O) and Xpeng were down between 1.1% and 2.8% on economic concerns and geopolitical tensions.