Reuters-US yields hit 2007 levels as Fed signals shutdown fears stoke angst
September 26, 2023 4 min 643 words
这篇报道描绘了美国国债收益率升至2007年金融危机前水平的局面，以及美联储的信号和政府关门的担忧加剧了全球风险资产的紧张情绪，推高了美元汇率至10个月来的高点。这是一个引人担忧的经济现象，有以下几点值得关注： 首先，美国国债收益率上升到2007年以来的水平，表明了市场对通货膨胀和利率上升的担忧。这可能导致借款成本上升，影响企业和个人的融资成本，对经济产生负面影响。 其次，美元汇率升至10个月来的高点，这反映了市场对美国经济相对强劲的信心。这可能对全球贸易和外汇市场产生影响，特别是对出口型经济体。 第三，亚洲和欧洲的股市都出现下跌，美国股市也可能跟随下跌。这表明投资者对全球经济前景感到不安，担心高利率和政府关门可能对市场造成不利影响。 最后，美国政府关门的威胁增加了市场不确定性，尤其是在政府无法为新财政年度提供资金的情况下。这可能会导致数十万联邦工作人员被停职，公共服务暂停，对经济和市场产生不利影响。 总之，这篇报道反映了当前全球经济面临的一系列挑战，包括通货膨胀、利率上升、政府关门和汇率波动等。这些因素将需要政府和央行采取适当的政策来维护金融稳定和经济增长。
U.S. Treasury yields hit a peak not seen since the early tremors of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis on Tuesday, as mounting fears of rates staying elevated for longer sent jitters through risk assets globally and pushed the dollar to a 10-month high.
Asian and European stock benchmarks sagged, with U.S. equities set to follow suit, and crude oil retreated from 10-month highs on remarks from Federal Reserve officials that drove a bearish steepening of the U.S. yield curve.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose as high as 4.566%, a 16-year peak, while a hefty pipeline of U.S. treasury auctions this week and fears of a U.S. government shutdown all further fed the skittish mood.
Euro zone bond yields also held near multi-year highs as the narrative that central banks will keep rates higher for longer held sway.
Germany's 10-year government bond yield , the euro area's benchmark, was last little changed on the day at 2.789%, having briefly hit a 12-year high of 2.813% in early trade.
The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against six major developed market peers, including the euro and yen - ticked up 0.2% to 106.2, the highest since November 2022, as the world's biggest economy continued to outperform.
The benchmark STOXX index of 600 European shares (.STOXX) slid 0.4%, in line with an earlier fall in MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS).
Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) lost 0.93%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI) slipped 0.98% and mainland Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) retreated 0.4%.
U.S. stock futures pointed 0.7% lower, following a 0.4% rise for the S&P 500 (.SPX) overnight.
Traders now put the odds of another quarter-point Fed hike by January at a coin toss, and have pushed the likely start of rate cuts to summer.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday that inflation staying entrenched above the central bank's 2% target remains a bigger risk than tight Fed policy slowing the economy more than needed.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said more rate hikes are likely needed given the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy.
The nervousness around U.S. government debt is exacerbated by efforts from the Republican-controlled House of Representatives to advance steep spending cuts this week, which stand no chance of becoming law but could trigger a partial shutdown of the government by next Sunday.
Hundreds of thousands of federal workers could be furloughed and public services suspended if Congress is unable to fund the new fiscal year starting Oct. 1.
The European Central Bank and Bank of England have also touted higher rates for longer in policy meetings since the middle of the month.
The relative outperformance of the U.S. economy - with investors increasingly betting on a soft landing while growth in the euro zone and Britain stagnate - has buoyed the dollar against those currencies.
The euro sagged 0.08% to $1.0584, approaching the overnight low of $1.0575, a level last seen in mid-March.
Sterling slipped 0.23% to $1.2185, taking it back toward Monday's six-month low of $1.21945.
The dollar also held near an 11-month peak of 148.97 yen from overnight, raising the risk of intervention by Japanese authorities.
Gold drifted slightly lower to $1,913.31, extending its slump from above $1,947 over the past week.
Crude oil remained weak amid concerns that fuel demand will be crimped by major central banks holding interest rates higher for longer, even with supply expected to be tight.
Brent crude futures were down 97 cents at $92.32 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were trading 92 cents lower at $89.76.